Free square running backs refer to RBs that come in severely underpriced relative to their projected roles. These players are often priced at the stone-minimum, opening up the DFS slate to jam in the premium plays. DraftKings has raised the salary floor for running backs this season from $3000 to $4000, so spotting these freebies is paramount if we want to afford the high-floor, high-upside smash plays. Using PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics, we can identify RBs that fit the criteria. Here are the free square RBs for the NFL Week 5 DFS main slate.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team: $5000
Antonio Gibson continued his solid start to the season despite being on the worst offense in the NFL. After back to back games with double-digit fantasy points, he posted 22.8 fantasy points in DK scoring on 17 touches in Week 4 against the Ravens. That season-high touch count included four red zone carries and four receptions, both of which were also high marks on the season. Washington is finally using him in high-leverage scenarios, making him an incredibly valuable fantasy asset.
Antonio Gibson is going to be so damn good in fantasy when Washington has a quarterback.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) October 4, 2020
Washington is also making a notable QB change, benching Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen. He’s not good, but we saw him maintain the fantasy value of Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore in Carolina last season. Gibson isn’t the same talent as McCaffrey, but as a converted WR, he is an excellent receiving option and should see similar attention from his QB. That will give him extra chances to flash his 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score.
On the surface, Gibson looks like a risky play this week. The Los Angeles Rams have been solid on defense, holding the Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants to 48 combined points. The only team they struggled with this season was the Bills, who were led by future 2020 MVP Josh Allen. While the Rams defense has had strong showings, they concede bunches of fantasy points to RBs. They rank No. 28 in Defensive Rushing DVOA after Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary all topped 120 scrimmage yards against them. Given his usage, Gibson should find similar success against this team and is simply too cheap on DK. He’s a solid salary-saving RB option on this tightly-priced slate.
David Johnson, Houston Texans: $5200
It’s always a good idea to have cheap exposure to explosive offenses in DFS. David Johnson checks in as one of the best options for this strategy, with the Texans having a whopping 30.5-point implied team total against the Jaguars. That’s the fourth-highest total on the slate, which is surprising considering Houston just canned Bill O’Brien. They still maintain offensive continuity in the form of OC Tim Kelly, so we can expect a similar touch breakdown for this offense. That’s good news for Johnson, who saw 18 touches to Duke Johnson’s eight last week and ranks No. 6 among qualified RBs with a 79.3 percent Opportunity Share. He’ll continue to operate as the clear lead back and will now be in a soft matchup with the Jaguars.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ_tPM6Y-G0
Jacksonville ranks dead-last in Defensive Passing DVOA this season and now ranks No. 17 against the run after Joe Mixon’s Week 4 explosion. Better yet, Houston has done a solid job at manipulating box numbers this season. Johnson has run against six or fewer defenders in the box on 70.6-percent (No. 16) of his rushes. The blocking has still been sub-par, evidenced by his 66.6 (No. 38) Run Blocking Efficiency rating. That’s the main reason for his 3.8 (No. 45) True Yards Per Carry, but he has 13 (No. 22) Evaded Tackles on his 60 touches this season. He has clearly bounced back from the form that saw him record a 14.6-percent (No. 51) Juke Rate last season, and just needs a little more space to produce like a fantasy stud. The Jaguars present his best matchup this season, and his price is the lowest it has been.
Jerick McKinnon, San Francisco 49ers: $5800
Jerick McKinnon has proven he’s still got it. While filling in for Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert, McKinnon has handled 19 touches per game and averaged 87 scrimmage yards and a score. In Week 4, he logged a 92.3-percent Snap Share, ran 41 routes, and saw eight targets. Jeff Wilson is clearly not a factor and Kyle Shanahan wants to feature his 2018 free agent signee. That will continue for at least one more week with Mostert still not practicing in full.
Check out Jerick McKinnon on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
The only downside for “Jet” is that his blocking has absolutely tanked. He has only been afforded the No. 33-ranked Run Blocking Efficiency rating. For comparison, Mostert enjoyed the No. 6-ranked blocking last season by our metrics. McKinnon has been able to skate by on his own talent, evading a tackle on 27.7-percent (No. 21) of his touches and ripping off Breakaway Runs at an 8.8-percent (No. 3) clip. Luckily this week, he won’t have to.
This matchup with the Dolphins is mouth-watering. They rank No. 28 and No. 31 in Defensive Passing and Rushing DVOA respectively, and have allowed Chris Carson and James Robinson to finish as top-5 PPR RBs over the last two weeks. The Dolphins have also allowed the ninth-most adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders, meaning McKinnon won’t be getting hit behind the line of scrimmage like he was all last game. Even if Mostert dresses for this game, McKinnon is set up for elite RB1 production.
