Bears Draft Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze | Buy into An Ascending Chicago Offense in Dynasty and Redraft

by Joel Ybarra · Uncategorized
Bears Caleb Williams

PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. The Chicago Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their quarterback of the future, but the rebuild has been in process since 2022. See the full breakdown of all the moves the Bears have made to amass an ascending offense for 2024 and beyond. 

A Two-Year Rebuild

Ryan Poles has been hard at work on the Bears’ roster since early in 2022 when he arrived in Chicago. He tore the roster down to the studs that first season, trading away defensive talent like Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack. The Bears did not add any offensive talent to speak of until acquiring D.J. Moore when they dealt the No. 1 pick in 2023 to Carolina. Moore gave Justin Fields a much needed No. 1 receiver, but with Luke Getsy as the OC and few other weapons, the third year QB was set up to fail.

Contrast that with what the Chicago Bears have done in the 2024 offseason. The team traded for veteran receiver Keenan Allen and signed pass-catching back D’Andre Swift in free agency. Poles kept his foot on the gas pedal in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Caleb Williams at 1.01 and then Rome Odunze, another blue-chip receiver, at 1.09. It is not a surprise the Bears are going all in after identifying their QB of the future. What was unknown was how aggressive they would be tooling up on offense. Now the Bears are an offense to watch in 2024. Below we break down the potential of the Chicago offense with a high-upside QB prospect like Williams and souped-up weapons on board.

Quarterback

Caleb Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022, his first season at USC, throwing for 4,537 yards and 42 touchdowns and rushing for 382 yards. He facilitated 600-plus yard seasons for four different Trojan receivers in that Heisman season. Jordan Addison, a first round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, accounted for 875 yards that season, then left for the NFL Draft after what was his junior season. Williams took a step back in 2023 after Addison’s departure, as did the Trojans offense. He threw for just 3,633 yards and 30 touchdowns while rushing for 115 yards. His top receivers were seventh round picks Tahj Washington and Brenden Rice, who led the team with 1,062 and 791 receiving yards, respectively.

Williams was still the unrivaled top QB prospect in the 2024 Draft class, and while there was some offseason discourse about the Bears keeping Fields and trading out of the first overall pick, it was not a realistic possibility they would pass up a player like Williams. Williams steps into one of the best situations a rookie QB could ask for, with a set of veteran receivers and a top-10 NFL Draft pick in Odunze.

A Remade Receiver Room

DJ Moore

Moore spent five seasons in Carolina catching passes from the likes of Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Sam Darnold, Cam Newton and Baker Mayfield, then Justin Fields in Chicago. And yet, he has produced, notching 1,000-plus yards in four of six seasons. Williams will be the best QB he has had. Moore is 27 years old and entering his prime.

Keenan Allen

At age 32, Allen is on the down slope of his career, but has continued to be a slot assassin, earning a 29.9-percent (No. 3) Target Rate and 2.48 (No. 11) Yards Per Route Run last season. Allen will provide a nice safety valve for Williams. The USC product can target all areas of the field, but Allen will provide a reliable veteran presence over the middle and short areas of the field for the rookie QB, just as he did for Justin Herbert in Los Angeles.

Rome Odunze

Rome Odunze, the Bears’ first round pick, was a four-year player at the University of Washington. He put up back-to-back 1,000-plus yard seasons with Michael Penix as his quarterback. He is in a tier of the consensus’ top-three receivers in the 2024 Draft class and provides another high-end weapon for Williams.

The Offensive System

Waldron was the OC and play caller in Seattle from 2021 to 2023. During that stretch, the Seahawks were in the top half among the league’s offenses in EPA/play (No. 10), Success Rate (No. 12), Dropback EPA (No. 14) and Dropback SR (No. 10), per rbsdm.com. That was all with a declining Russell Wilson in 2021 and Geno Smith in 2022 and 2023, who, before his 2022 breakout season, was relegated to NFL backup status.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were both repeat top-24 WRs in PPG in 2021 and 2022. In 2023, they slipped, as did Smith. Metcalf and Lockett ended up WR22 and WR38, respectively, among WRs playing at least eight games last season. The Bears receiver set is better than those Seahawks wideouts (even including Jaxon Smith-Njigba). And Williams is a superior QB talent to Wilson and Smith in Seattle. The question is when the USC standout will be able to reach his full potential.

Putting It All Together

What we are looking for in an ascendant offense is for the QB to facilitate fantasy production for multiple weapons, as C.J. Stroud did for Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and even Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz at times last season. Williams has the talent. It’s just a question of how quickly he can get acclimated to the NFL and Waldron’s system. The bull case is based on the fact that Williams is stepping into an offense with three receivers who are better than the best wideout he played with at USC (all due respect to Addison).

The rookie QB had his monster passing season in 2022 with a receiving corps of Jordan Addison, Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice, and Mario Williams. The Bears new franchise guy is going to be in an ideal situation with three experienced and talented receivers, not to mention Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett and Swift.

Ascending Assets to Acquire

Caleb Williams

Williams is an elite escape artist and scrambler with superb field vision and pocket awareness. He is much like Aaron Rodgers in terms of his field vision and creative ability. It is not difficult to see Williams rushing for 30 to 40 yards per game, putting him in striking distance of top-five QB in fantasy. He will cost an arm and a leg to acquire in dynasty, but he is being drafted as the QB12 on Underdog. That’s a smash. Justin Fields was going as a top-five QB on Underdog this time last year.

The Pass Catchers

Despite the excitement about the Bears offense, the receivers’ ADPs are depressed on Underdog due to the ambiguity. Moore is going at WR17 after finishing as the WR9 in PPG in 2023 – with Justin Fields. Allen is going as the WR25 and Odunze as the WR33. They are all going to have spike weeks in 2024 as the offense gets going.

The most difficult to acquire in dynasty is Odunze. He is going as a top-eight pick in rookie drafts. Allen is easily available for a second round pick, and Moore’s price has also dropped since Allen and Odunze joined the fray.

The Running Backs

The Bears signed Swift to a three-year, $24M deal in the offseason. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson, both playing on their rookie deals in 2024, are no slouches. All are competent backs, but Swift and Johnson have more pass-catching upside. All are affordable ways to buy into an ascending Chicago offense.

Read Joel’s full breakdown of the Texans offense here: Stefon Diggs Trade – Houston Texans Prepare for Launch