Smash or Pass – The Best and Worst Best Ball Values at Every Position

by Chris O'Brien · Best Ball Plays & Strategy

Best ball drafts are a fantastic way to scratch that way-too-early fantasy football itch that we all get in March and April. The NFL offseason feels like an eternity, fortunately, best ball drafts have skyrocketed in popularity with the emergence of platforms like Underdog. While there is still so much to happen this offseason with the NFL Draft approaching and free agency moves still looming, let’s look at some of the best and worst values at every position for the 2024 season in Best Ball Fantasy Football.

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Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – SMASH

There’s no denying that 2023 was a rough season for Trevor Lawrence. He finished as the QB13 on the season while playing in all but one game. However, I see value in Lawrence at his current best ball price of QB15.

The TDs simply did not go his way. He had just 3.7-percent of his throws convert to TDs. This was below the league average of 4.1-percent. Also, this was due to an incredibly hot TD run by Travis Etienne early in the season, coupled with drops by his receivers. His TD luck bounced back in the second half of the season. He finished with five multi-TD games and was the QB8 over that span.

Despite the loss of Calvin Ridley (the biggest TD drop culprit), Lawrence can provide splash weeks in 2024 which is exactly what you’re looking for in best ball. He has enough weapons around him. Additionally, there’s speculation that the Jaguars will draft a wide receiver with their first-round pick.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers – SMASH

Coming off the board at WR43 in the seventh round, Diontae Johnson is the best value of any player at any position. He’s proven that he can get open and demand the ball. Johnson has racked up 140+ targets in his last three healthy seasons and dealt with horrendous quarterback play over the last two.

Adam Thielen put up 1,000+ yards last year as a shell of his former self. Johnson is still in the prime of his career at age 27. He enters Carolina as an immediate and legitimate number-one option for Bryce Young. Diontae Johnson‘s forte is creating space and winning his route. This is something that Panthers’ wide receivers struggled to do last year.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – PASS

If you want to draft Diontae Johnson, but four rounds earlier, look no further than Michael Pittman! He’s currently going in the mid-third round on Underdog as the WR21.

Pittman is a great player who racks up points in PPR formats. However, he doesn’t have that ceiling that a lot of the other WRs in this range do. His best weekly finish last season in half PPR formats was WR7. Additionally, he’s yet to surpass 1,200 yards or six TDs in his 4-year career. 

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers – SMASH

Deebo Samuel is a superstar with the rock in his hands, and that’s what Kyle Shanahan does best. He finished as the WR9 in points per game last year. This was despite playing less than 35-percent of snaps in two games. That included top 15 weekly finishes at the position in 53-percent of his games (62-percent of games when playing over 35-percent of snaps).

He had four straight weeks where he finished as a WR9 or better in 2023. This weekly splash upside is exactly what we’re looking for in best ball. The consistency is also there when healthy. When you have a guy with WR1 overall potential in the third round, it’s hard to pass up.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks – PASS

Walker is a home run hitter that can house one on any given play. He started off 2023 hot, scoring six times in his first five games. However, he fizzled out shortly after as he got banged up. Zach Charbonnet got more run, splitting snaps with Walker from Week 8 on. Walker finished as a top 24 RB just three times over his last nine games and failed to hit a 60-percent snap share in any of those games. His three top 24 finishes were all in the top 15 which is nice. However, I’d rather take a shot on guys with more receiving upside or TD potential like Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara, or David Montgomery who are all going after him. Therefore, Walker is a Best Ball Fantasy Football Pass.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars – SMASH

Engram’s 114 reception season in 2023 was the No. 2 most by a tight end ever. He’s currently being drafted in the late seventh round of best ball drafts as the TE8 despite finishing as the TE2 last year. While his TE2 finish was in large part due to playing a full 17 and remaining consistent, there’s still room to grow for Engram. Positive touchdown regression looks imminent after he scored just four of them on 114 receptions in 2023. With Calvin Ridley‘s departure, Engram’s role as a focal point in this offense is likely staying the same in 2024. Engram is a perfect mix of volume and upside who is being completely overlooked.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills – PASS

Kincaid is coming off the board at TE5 in the sixth round. There’s upside to be had here, but it feels like we’re drafting an Evan Engram type ceiling one round earlier than the man himself. Why pick the mystery box that could be a million dollars when you can just pick the million dollars? George Kittle, Kyle Pitts, and Evan Engram are all guys I’d prefer over Kincaid but are being drafted after him.

Kincaid does have room to grow in the TD department as he had an extremely low TD-percentage in 2023, but this offense clearly wants to run the ball under Joe Brady. Stefon Diggs isn’t going anywhere, and there are rumblings of the Bills drafting a wide receiver with their first-round pick. The best-case scenario looks like Kincaid as the No. 2 option in a run first offense, but he could even be bumped down to No. 3 and is a Best Ball Fantasy Football Pass.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings – SMASH

The only thing that has been holding Aaron Jones back from being an elite fantasy running back over the last three years is the goal line role. Since AJ Dillon was integrated into the Packers offense in 2021, Jones has struggled to find the end zone on the ground. Now with the Vikings, Jones looks to be the clear lead back, especially around the goal line. Jones scored 33 rushing TDs from 2018-2020, proving he has a nose for the end zone.

He’s always had the receiving upside and the rushing efficiency, and there’s no reason that should change in 2024. Jones is one of five running backs to average 5.0+ YPC on 1,000+ carries (the others being Barry Sanders, Jamaal Charles, Jim Brown, and Nick Chubb). Ty Chandler will get some run, but nothing that should scare us off of Aaron Jones. Currently going at RB16, this feels like his absolute floor if he can stay healthy with the Vikings.

Thank you for reading, and I hope this has inspired you to hop into a best ball draft and get after it. Happy drafting and may the odds be ever in your favor!

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