Round 2 Running Backs
This Fantasy Football season has revolved around the emphasis of early round Wide Receivers after a 2022 season that was awful for early round running backs. As a result, many elite running back options find themselves grouped in the second and third rounds of drafts. This article will focus on the second-round grouping of:
- Josh Jacobs: (RB6)
- Nick Chubb (RB7)
- Tony Pollard (RB8)
All three of these players present mammoth upside in 2023 and will pay off their cost if healthy. However, a clear “best pick” can be identified through a logical process of elimination.
Volume x Efficiency = League Winner
League winning players are found at the cross section of high volume and elite efficiency. All three players present strong profiles from 2023 that helped contribute to many league winning fantasy football teams. A clear hierarchy can be found while diving into basic counting stats and some key advanced metrics.
Player Profiler’s Advanced Stats and Metrics
Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs‘ profile suggest his fantasy success was a result of massive volume rather than elite efficiency. His ability to operate for a full season under his league leading workload was impressive but begs the question of repeatability. Jacobs led the league in carries, rushing yards, and yards created. He was top ten in reception, receiving yards, and breakaway runs. However, Jacob’s league average breakaway run rate, yards created per touch, and yards per reception are alarming. He is a volume monster but does not necessarily profile as an “elite” running back.
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb continues to excel as one of the NFL’s most talented athletes. His rushing profile is perfect with elite volume intersected with monster efficiency. He is primed to continue his excellence on an improved Browns’ offense. Age will become a concern soon, but Chubb has one season left before exceeding the age apex for elite running back production (28 years old). His only downside is a clear lack of receiving volume despite an impressive yards per reception.
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard was a part-time player before achieving a true breakout in Week 8 last season. He forced this front office to come to terms with Ezekiel Elliott’s declining performance. This is a feat many considered impossible. Pollard managed 193 carries and 39 receptions despite his limited starting time. His league leading efficiency metrics are further enhanced when seeing his 9.5 yards per reception. It is not an exaggeration to compare Pollard’s receiving ability to that of Austin Ekeler.
The Best Pick (But Not the Safest Pick)
The ideal running back target in the second round is someone who has RB1 overall in the range of outcomes. Josh Jacobs is a nice player but lacks the efficiency to truly unlock his monster volume. Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs of the last decade but lacks the receiving profile to dominate in PPR formats.
However, are either of them the Best Fantasy Football Picks to make? Tony Pollard is staring down the barrel of a huge volume spike in 2023 and he has league winning efficiency. There is no available free agent or player for trade that will supplant Pollard’s league-winning upside. Fantasy Football is not won via the path of least resistance. Tony Pollard has arrived.
