6 Must Draft Wide Receivers for 2024 Fantasy Football

by Seth Diewold · Featured
WRs Fantasy

PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Here, Seth Diewold identifies his must draft wide receivers for 2024 fantasy drafts. 

Wide receivers are tricky this year because just about every one of the wide receivers on Underdog has had their ADP rise up the board. The cat is out of the bag, and it looks like everyone is realizing that Hero RB and Zero RB are very effective strategies, especially in best ball. Today, we are going to help you sort through the wide receiver landscape to uncover some must draft targets at the position.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP: 6 Overall, WR5)

We are going to start with a player who I believe is a no-brainer, but I honestly think we are underselling the kind of volume that St. Brown could have in store this season. First of all, let’s take a look at what the Lions did to address the wide receiver position in the offseason. They actually lost a receiver in Josh Reynolds, who was their third leading wide receiver, and chose to replace him internally with the likes of Kalif Raymond, Donovan Peoples-Jones, etc. The Lions are clearly counting on Jameson Williams to become the wide receiver they drafted him to be in the first round.

While there aren’t a ton of vacated targets in the Lions offense, we shouldn’t expect the roles to change much in the receiving game. If anything, we should expect the major target earners: St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs, to have a slightly increased role to make up for the slight lack in targets.

2023 Detroit Lions Target Shares (according to PlayerProfiler)

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown –  30.2-percent
  • Sam LaPorta – 21.1-percent
  • Jahmyr Gibbs – 14.1-percent
  • Josh Reynolds – 11.2-percent
  • Jameson Williams – 9.8-percent
  • Kalif Raymond – 7.7-percent

It is also possible that Williams’ Target Share increases significantly, but this shouldn’t affect St. Brown’s role in the offense that much. My hunch is that a good majority of the 11.2-percent target share Josh Reynolds received in 2023 is going to go to Williams, which should put him in the neighborhood of a 15- to 16-percent Target Share with Raymond and Peoples-Jones seeing a slightly increased Target Share as well. None of this affects St. Browns’ ability to see a 27- to 30-percent Target Share once again in 2024.

We are also very secure in this offense. Jared Goff is returning as the quarterback, the offensive line remains one of the best in the league, and it’s still very much intact, and the offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, decided to stay in Detroit over taking a head coaching job. Therefore, this offense should run very similarly to the way it ran in 2023, and therefore I feel very good about projecting St. Brown for a 27-30-percent target share with the upside for slightly more should Williams fail to be what the Lions want him to be (which is very possible). I also like the touchdown upside for St. Brown because he ranked No. 3 amongst wide receivers in Red Zone Targets (25), according to PlayerProfiler.

Let’s play the projection game assuming the 27- to 30-percent Target Share.

St. Brown 2024 Projection:

  • Targets: 156-173
  • Catch Rate: 72-percent
  • Receptions: 112-125
  • YPR: 12
  • Receiving Yards: 1,344-1,500
  • TDs: 8
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 294.4 – 323 (WR3-WR5 in 2023)

This projection also factors in less efficiency from a year ago and fewer touchdowns. Just for fun, let’s see what happens if St. Brown sees an increase in touchdowns and is just as efficient as last season:

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2024 Upside Projection:

  • Targets: 173
  • Catch Rate: 72-percent
  • Receptions: 125
  • YPR: 12.7 (same as last year)
  • Receiving Yards: 1,587
  • TDs: 12 (two more than last year)
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 355.7 (WR3 in 2023)

The fact that the upside case for St. Brown doesn’t put him in contention for the WR1 overall goes to show you how crazy CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill were a year ago. But the truth is that St. Brown isn’t too far off those players. St. Brown is about as safe a pick as you can make in the middle of the first round because he has a built-in fantasy floor with a sizeable ceiling as well given the consistency of the offense.

Jaylen Waddle (ADP: 20 Overall, WR15)

The Miami Dolphins were one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL last season. They ranked No. 3 in points scored per game (27.9), No. 2 in yards per play (6.4), and No. 3 in touchdowns per game (3.4). With Mike McDaniel at the helm, we know what we are getting in terms of offensive production every year. Waddle is coming off a year in which he finished with career lows in targets, receptions, and touchdowns. This is likely due to the fact that he battled through injuries throughout the season. Here is a list of injuries Waddle dealt with in 2023:

  • Week 2 – concussion (missed one game)
  • Week 8 – back soreness
  • Week 11 – knee soreness
  • Week 15 – bruised chest
  • Week 16 – high ankle sprain (missed two games)

Before 2023, Waddle had never finished lower than WR15 in fantasy points per game amongst wide receivers. In 2023, he finished as the WR21 in that category. In fact, Waddle had his best season in terms of fantasy points per game with Hill in Miami in 2022.

Miami Dolphins 2023 Target Shares (according to PlayerProfiler):

There is no question that the Target Share for Hill is likely going to be at least 30=percent yet again in 2024, but Hill is a wide receiver that is on the other side of age 30 now. It might be wise for the Dolphins – if they have Super Bowl aspiration – to dial back his usage during the regular season to keep him healthy for the playoffs (see the Chiefs usage of Travis Kelce during the regular season).

But let’s assume Hill gets a similar target share to last season, let’s say 32-percent. (Note: It’s very hard for me to project anything higher than 30-percent, but it’s Hill.) I’m also not sure the addition of Odell Beckham Jr. is going to affect Waddle’s usage much in the offense. If anything, Beckham will take over some of the targets that Cedrick Wilson left behind. It will likely mean that many of the players further down the depth chart won’t see as many opportunities as they did a season ago to fill in that WR3 role. Last season, Beckham earned a 16.2-percent target share with the Ravens.

Miami Dolphins 2024 Target Share Projections:

  • Tyreek Hill: 32-percent
  • Jaylen Waddle: 22-percent
  • Odell Beckham Jr.: 15-percent
  • Jonnu Smith: 9-percent
  • Devon Achane: 8-percent
  • Raheem Mostert: 6-percent
  • Braxton Berrios: 5-percent

If we give Waddle a 22-percent Target Share (Waddle has never seen a target share below 21.6-percent in his career), below is what his projection looks like based on the efficiency and upside in the offense.

  • Targets: 121
  • Catch Rate: 68
  • Receptions: 82
  • YPR: 15
  • Receiving Yards: 1,230
  • TDs: 6
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 241 (WR16 in 2023 – player No. 43 overall including QBs)

To me, the above is his floor projection. The projection assumes Beckham is reasonably involved in the offense and that Hill continues to be used as he has been over the past two seasons. There is also an upside case in two scenarios: 1.) the Dolphins begin to turn down the volume on Hill at least somewhat, or 2.) Tyreek Hill misses time due to injury.

In these two scenarios, Waddle’s usage is likely going to go up. It’s not every day that a player like Waddle – with a clear floor and the upside to be used a lot more in an offense as efficient as the Dolphins – is available in the back end of the second round in fantasy drafts. Waddle is also a really good pick in best ball tournaments.

DJ Moore (ADP: 31 Overall, WR22)

Last season, D.J. Moore had a career season. He finished as the WR6 overall and the WR9 in fantasy points per game. However, in 2024, the Bears WR room looks a lot different and so does their quarterback. Let’s address the target competition first. This is what the Target Shares looked like in 2023 for the Bears.

2023 Chicago Bears Target Shares (According to PlayerProfiler):

Clearly we are going to have to make room for Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D’Andre Swift. The good news is that Mooney’s targets are up for grabs and so are Tonyan’s. Additionally, the role of Johnson and Herbert will be dialed back in the passing game. The Bears also ranked No. 28 in the NFL in Team Pass Plays Per Game (30.2), No. 19 in points per game (21.2), No. 20 in touchdowns per game (2.2), and No. 21 in yards per game (323.2). The Bears did rank No. 9 in plays per game (64.5), but opted to run the ball 48.7-percent of the time, which was No. 2 in the NFL behind only the Baltimore Ravens.

It’s safe to say the Bears offensive scheme is changing, and as a result there should be an uptick in overall passing volume. This should help out a player like Moore even though he has more target competition to deal with. Here is what I project the Bears target shares to be like in 2024.

Chicago Bears 2024 Target Share Projections:

  • D.J. Moore: 23-percent
  • Keenan Allen: 21-percent
  • Rome Odunze: 16-percent
  • Cole Kmet: 13-percent
  • D’Andre Swift: 8-percent
  • Gerald Everett: 7-percent
  • Roschon Johnson: 4-percent
  • Tyler Scott: 4-percent

In this scenario, Moore’s Target Share does come down significantly from a season ago, but we can project more passing volume. Last season in Seattle, there were 547 targets in the Shane Waldron offense. Let’s project around 500 targets will be available in the Bears offense just to be safe, although this number could be a lot higher.

D.J. Moore 2024 Projection

  • Targets: 115
  • Catch Rate: 68
  • Receptions: 78
  • YPR: 14
  • Receiving Yards: 1,092
  • TDs: 6
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 223.2 (WR23 in 2023 – Player No. 57 overall, including QBs)

This would be the lowest Target Share of D.J. Moore’s career since his rookie season, so I believe this is a relatively safe floor projection. What is most likely is that Allen misses a few games and Moore steps up as the clear Alpha in those games. This also assumes the Bears only add 23 more targets in the offense than they did one season ago. My guess is the number of targets in the offense needs to be bumped up to at least 530. Therefore, let’s run another projection which slightly bumps up the Target Share to be more in line with the low end of Moore’s previous Target Shares. Also, let’s increase the number of targets available in the offense to 530.

D.J. Moore 2024 Upside Projection:

  • Targets: 127
  • Catch Rate: 68
  • Receptions: 86
  • YPR: 14
  • Receiving Yards: 1,204
  • TDs: 7
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 248.4 (2023 WR15)

As you can see, there is still some upside, even in a crowded offense. It likely won’t be the kind of season Moore saw in 2023, but this is still a winning pick at his current ADP.

George Pickens (ADP: 39 Overall, WR27)

Every move the Steelers have made has been an endorsement of George Pickens. The first thing they did was get Kenny Pickett out of town and sign Russell Wilson and trade for Justin Fields. Essentially, the Steelers not only upgraded at quarterback, but they were able to sign and trade for two bites at the apple. Next, they traded Diontae Johnson to Carolina, thus making Pickens the unquestioned WR1 in the offense.

Then, the NFL Draft came, and perhaps Steelers fans were thinking, “maybe the Steelers will draft a WR in Round 1 or 2. This is a fantastic wide receiver draft after all.” Wrong! They drafted two offensive linemen, Troy Fautanu in Round 1 and Zach Frazier in Round 2. It wasn’t until Round 3 where they finally added a wide receiver in Roman Wilson. However, the Michigan product has a completely different skill set than Pickens and projects to be more of a slot receiver. The Steelers drafting Roman Wilson was no threat to Pickens being the unquestioned Alpha in the offense. In addition to the rookie, the Steelers added Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins, who project to be the other outside wide receivers in three wide receiver sets.

Let’s also think about Arthur Smith as the offensive coordinator for a moment. In his time with the Tennessee Titans, he had a player named A.J. Brown. Here is how Brown finished in a run first offense, with Derrick Henry (the Steelers don’t have a back like Henry taking up a monster volume (no disrespect to Najee Harris).

A.J. Brown Stats with Tennessee

2019

  • WR30 in fantasy points per game – rookie season
  • Target Share: 19.5-percent
  • Games: 16 (only started 11)
  • Targets: 84
  • Receptions: 52
  • Receiving Yards: 1,051
  • YPR: 20.2
  • TDs: 8

2020

  • WR6 in fantasy points per game
  • Target Share: 25.9-percent
  • Games: 14 (12 started)
  • Targets: 106 (121 targets extrapolated out to a 16-game season)
  • Receptions: 70
  • Receiving Yards: 1,075
  • YRP: 15.4
  • TDs: 11

Also, Brown was playing with Corey Davis in the wide receiver room during those seasons. You may scoff at Davis because he was a bust given his draft capital (No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft), but he did earn a 16.8-percent Target Share in 2019 and a 23.1-percent Target Share in 2020. Also, in those seasons, the Titans never passed the ball more than 485 times. This was likely because they had Henry in the backfield, but they were also trying to figure out who their quarterback was going to be. In 2019, it was a combination of Marcus Mariota and Ryan Tannehill. In 2020, Tannehill earned the starting job and played very well.

What does this mean for Pickens in 2024? Last season, Pittsburgh ranked No. 27 in Pass Attempts Per Game (30.3). What’s funny is Denver (where Russell Wilson is coming from) ranked No. 28 in Pass Attempts Per Game (30.2). The Steelers are likely to have a low passing volume offense, but I would expect them to air it out slightly more than the Titans did in 2019 and 2020. Let’s also assume Pickens earns a 25-percent Target Share with high touchdown upside given his big play ability.

2024 George Pickens Projection

  • Targets: 117
  • Catch Rate: 65
  • Receptions: 76
  • YPR: 16
  • Receiving Yards: 1,216
  • TDs: 7
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 239.6 (WR16 in 2023)

If we project him for slightly less volume and slightly less touchdown luck, Pickens would still be a slight loser at his ADP of WR27:

  • Targets: 103
  • Catch Rate: 65
  • Receptions: 67
  • YPR: 16
  • Receiving Yards: 1,072
  • TDs: 5
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 204.2 (WR 31 in 2023)

A bet on Pickens is a bet on the talent and the upside he possesses. I also try to keep things simple for myself in fantasy football. So, getting back to my initial point, if the Steelers and Mike Tomlin are betting big on this guy, so should we. Tomlin has forgotten more football than I will ever know.

Chris Godwin (ADP – 59 Overall, WR36)

The simple case for Chris Godwin is touchdown regression. Mike Evans hauled in 13 touchdowns in 2023 and finished as the WR7 overall and the WR10 in fantasy points per game. Godwin only scored two receiving touchdowns despite earning just four fewer targets than Evans in 2023. As a result, Godwin had his worst finish in fantasy points per game since 2018, finishing No. 34 in fantasy points per game. He finished No. 36 in 2018 (No. 28 overall) amongst wide receivers in fantasy scoring.

Another reason for Godwin’s low scoring season despite ranking No. 18 amongst wide receivers in targets (131) is his lack of slot snaps. In 2023, Godwin ranked No. 26 among wide receivers in slot snaps (293). During the previous two seasons, Godwin ranked No. 8 (in 2021) in slot snaps with 464, and No. 4 in slot snaps in 2022 with 489. The rumor is that new offensive coordinator Liam Coen envisions Godwin playing more in the slot. If this is true, then we should expect to see Godwin finish closer to WR10 in fantasy points per game. He finished as the PPG WR15 in 2022 and the WR7 in 2021.

With a similar role in the offense, and even better usage out of the slot, we should be able to reasonably project a similar workload to last season given the quarterback is the same and many of the pieces of the Buccaneers offense are the same. Additionally, the Buccaneers ranked No. 7 in pass attempts, No. 1 in Deep Ball Attempts, and No. 13 in Pace of Play with Baker Mayfield under center. Therefore, it’s not unthinkable to project that Mayfield is top-10 in pass attempts once again, but to be safe, let’s project him to be around middle of the pack in pass attempts and project a 22-percent Target Share for Godwin – with a more efficient slot role baked in.

2024 Chris Godwin Floor Projection:

  • Targets: 110
  • Catch Rate: 70
  • Receptions: 77
  • YPR: 10.5
  • Receiving Yards: 808.5
  • TDs: 4
  • Total Fantasy Points: 181.85 (WR36 in 2023)

With this projection, we are counting on the fact that there will be less targets in the offense, and as a result Godwin will have the lowest number of targets that he’s seen since 2020 where he missed four games. This is a floor projection, and as you can see, Godwin is being drafted at WR 36, which is where he is currently being drafted. Let’s project the Buccaneers to have about the same number of targets available in the offense with a slightly higher target share (23-percent) and the same bump in efficiency due to an increased slot role for Godwin. Let’s also factor in the very realistic possibility that more touchdown luck goes his way.

2024 Chris Godwin Upside Projection:

  • Targets: 126
  • Catch Rate: 70
  • Receptions: 88
  • YPR: 10.5
  • Receiving Yards: 929
  • TDs: 6
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 216.9 (WR26 in 2023)

In the upside projection, Godwin could easily have more touchdowns and more targets. If he does, he has the upside to be a top-15 wide receiver, and he’s currently being drafted at WR36, which is his absolute floor.

Diontae Johnson (ADP: 71 Overall, WR42)

Some may be scared off from drafting Diontae Johnson, the No. 1 target on the Carolina Panthers, but I’m not. Yes, last season was a rough one for Bryce Young, who is more undersized than we might like, but the Panthers did a lot to help him out this offseason. They added OGs Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis in free agency to help protect Young from the pass rush up the middle. That should give the second-year QB time to find a massive target earner in Johnson.

From 2020-2022, Johnson averaged 153 targets with the Pittsburgh Steelers. In that time span, he finished no lower than WR39 in fantasy points per game. That WR39 finish was because Johnson caught zero touchdowns in 2022. Over the past two seasons, Johnson has been the WR39 in fantasy points per game. So at WR42, why is this such a value?

Last season, Adam Thielen led the Panthers in targets with 137. That’s not likely to happen again in 2024 with the addition of Johnson, and I believe the Panthers knew they needed to find Bryce Young a legitimate top-end WR who can command a high volume of targets. Outside of Thielen and Johnson, the Panthers don’t have a ton of depth at wide receiver. Sure, they drafted Xavier Legette, but he is going to take some time to develop and won’t be nearly as heavily involved in the offense as Thielen or Johnson – at least initially. Outside of Legetter, there is Terrace Marshall, Jonathan Mingo, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette. The Panthers also don’t have a receiving threat at tight end. They drafted Ja’Tavion Sanders, but he was a Round 4 pick in the NFL Draft.

Additionally, Young ranked No. 12 in pass attempts, despite missing a game. He was on pace to finish top-10 in pass attempts, and we know this team is not going to be good defensively – yet again – in 2024. That means Bryce Young will be in the conversation for being top-10 in pass attempts yet again in 2024, and the team should be in quite a few negative Game Script situations (playing from behind). Therefore, I have no problem projecting Johnson to have a massive Target Share in this offense. I’d say around 25-percent is fair.

2024 Diontae Johnson Projection:

  • Targets: 131
  • Catch Rate: 60
  • Receptions: 78
  • YPR: 11
  • Receiving Yards: 858
  • TDs: 5
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 193.8 (WR35 in 2023)

This projection assumes Thielen will also be very involved in the offense, and it’s possible that his usage drops significantly due to his age. There is an absolute possibility Johnson’s Target Share is in the 27- to 28-percent range as it was during 2021-2022 with the Steelers. In that best case scenario, Johnson’s projection could look like this:

2024 Diontae Johnson Upside Projection:

  • Targets: 145
  • Catch Rate: 60
  • Receptions: 87
  • YPR: 11
  • Receiving Yards: 957
  • TDs: 5
  • Total PPR Fantasy Points: 212.7 (WR27 in 2023)

As you can see, there is massive upside to drafting Johnson because of the role he will have in an offense that is going to be much improved. This is a classic case of fantasy gamers not wanting pieces of the Panthers offense because they don’t want players on bad offenses, but if you have the courage to draft players on bad offenses, you can find some real value in fantasy drafts. To be fair, I’m not sure this is going to be a terrible offense either. It just won’t be a great offense.

See Seth’s Must Draft RBs here: 6 Must Draft Running Backs in 2024 Fantasy Football