This is Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Super Wild Card Weekend! It is the playoffs! There is no better time to be great than now with a limited set of NFL games to choose props from. Welcome back to my pick ’em series! In this article, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff members. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Super Wild Card Weekend Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. It is here where we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance. Again, we are going all-in on our three-leg play since it is strictly more profitable than taking the insurance method.
For both plays, we are chasing a game script with both legs related by correlation. We will be utilizing an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. With legs within an entry positively correlated with each other, we’re making fewer bets to hit two legs than if we bet on two separate independent events. The Underdog play this week targets the Saturday afternoon game, and the Sleeper play targets a potential blowout on Sunday afternoon.
Pick No. 1 (Underdog): Brandon Aiyuk (SF) UNDER 48.5 receiving yards
This prop is juiced to the under on 45.5 receiving yards, so we are getting an ultimate discount with this pick ‘em line. This season, Brock Purdy has been the 49ers’ primary quarterback in three games with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel both available. In those games, Aiyuk recorded 46, 57, and 59 receiving yards. However, this week’s home playoff game in the rain against cornerback Tariq Woolen will be his toughest yet.
Woolen has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL recently. Since Week 15, Woolen has only given up 20.5 yards per game on his coverage. This includes a complete shutdown of the 49ers in Week 15 when he gave up zero yards while shadowing Aiyuk on 45-percent of his snaps. Back the under on the 49ers’ top outside wideout in Purdy’s first exposure to the NFL playoffs.
Pick No. 2 (Underdog): Geno Smith (SEA) OVER 15.5 rushing yards
Earlier this week on The Writer’s Roundtable and The Juice, I backed the Seahawks to cover this game. For Seattle to have any shot of competing, they need to put the ball in the hands of their breakout quarterback, Geno Smith.
San Francisco relies on their pass rush to make defensive plays. This season, they rank No. 9 in the NFL in pressure rate. Smith has cleared this line in 11 of his 17 games and three of his four games facing a top-10 pressure rate defense.
Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): Josh Allen (BUF) OVER 49.5 rushing yards
This prop is rightfully juiced to the over on sportsbooks right now. In a 13-point spread, Buffalo is the safest pick in the NFL this weekend to play from ahead and burn clock. It’s the playoffs, and that means all systems go for the Bills to utilize their best weapons for four quarters. Oftentimes one of their best bets is to use Josh Allen‘s elite rushing ability. He has cleared this line in five of his six career playoff games including both games last season.
He has cleared this line in four of his nine games since his Week 9 elbow injury, and this weekend he will face a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 6 in the NFL in pressure rate since their bye week. If they get to the quarterback again this week, Allen should scramble and take free rushing lanes instead of forcing the ball to receivers playing with the lead.
Pick No. 4 (Sleeper): Jason Sanders (MIA) UNDER 1.5 extra points made
If the Bills play from ahead early, it is likely because their defense plays well against Miami’s third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson. In Thompson’s two starts this season, the Dolphins have scored a total of one touchdown.
For Sanders to even get two opportunities to kick an extra point, Miami would have to live up to their Vegas’ implied team total of 15 and be in situations where they would take the one instead of go for two. PlayerProfiler’s AI-powered tool Edge doesn’t think that is likely since it likes the under in this game.
Example Slips
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.
