This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Week 14 article! As quarterback situations change and injuries force pass-catchers and running backs into new roles, it is time to take advantage of mispriced player props. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props of the week. As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value on the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 13 Review
After profiting in Week 12 via a same-game three-legger on Underdog, we couldn’t replicate our success in Week 13. Despite capturing game scripts pretty well, we came up empty-handed on the players we targeted. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article.
Week 13 Sleeper play: Jaylen Waddle over 65.5 receiving yards, George Kittle over 11.7 fantasy points
As mentioned above, I was all over this game script as I anticipated the 49ers taking control of this game and playing from ahead. However, injuries and a bit of over-dominance from the 49ers getting to Tua Tagovailoa‘s weaknesses killed this pass-catching pair early. Waddle played banged up and could never get it going. He posted just one catch on five targets for nine yards. This was by far his worst performance of the season. Kittle saw a change of quarterback mid-game. With San Francisco in the driver’s seat in the first half, they elected to keep their offense ground-heavy. Kittle, thus, became irrelevant and posted only two catches on three targets for 22 yards. There are no excuses regarding the injury. It was a misread from my end to not anticipate a script where the 49ers did not have to turn to their stud tight end.
Week 13 Underdog play: Mike White over 33.5 passing attempts, Tyler Conklin over 31.5 receiving yards, Justin Jefferson under 6.5 receptions
I anticipated the Jets would come back down to Earth and play from behind early. However, New York’s comeback efforts were nearly successful as they produced offense and had several chances at winning despite not getting production from tight end Tyler Conklin.
Quarterback Mike White soared over his line. He attempted a whopping 57 passes. However, nine different players received a target from White including seven targets for Conklin. While the volume was there, Conklin only hauled in two receptions for a pitiful nine yards. Meanwhile, the Vikings didn’t completely take their foot off the pedal when the Jets gave them a second-half scare. As a result, Jefferson was able to record his seventh reception in the fourth quarter to bust that leg as well.
- Week 12 Legs: 1-4; overall -1.00u
- YTD: 28-29-1; -2.00u
Week 14 Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. It is here where we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance.
Both plays for Week 14 are correlative two-leg plays. They utilize an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. In today’s episode, we are riding two opposing game scripts based on Vegas game totals. We are targeting overs in a projected shootout and unders in a projected offensive disasterclass.
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): T.J. Hockensen (MIN) OVER 4.5 receptions
This season, only nine teams have allowed more tight-end receptions than the Detroit Lions. Now entering an offensive game script with a 51.5-point Vegas total (the highest on the Sunday afternoon slate) and a revenge narrative against the team that just traded him, it’s no surprise that T.J. Hockenson‘s over 4.5 receptions prop is juiced to -130 on sportsbooks.
He has hit this in four of his five games as a Viking, drawing at least six targets in every single game.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): D’Andre Swift (DET) OVER 24.5 receiving yards
If this game lives up to the hype set by the high total, both teams will pass the ball in volume. Consequentially, playmaker D’Andre Swift should be involved through the air against a Vikings defense that has allowed the No. 2-most yards after the catch per game and No. 5-most receptions per game to running backs this season.
Swift has drawn at least six targets in each of his last two games and cleared this receiving yard line in five of his nine games. That is why this prop is juiced to the over on sportsbooks and we’ll gladly take the value on this same-game stack in Detroit.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Tom Brady (TB) UNDER 1.5 passing touchdowns
Just as we like to attack specific player overs in high-scoring narratives, we can’t be hypocritical and ignore the value of the unders in low-scoring narratives. In a matchup between the struggling Buccaneers offense and a 49ers team that is about to start their third-string quarterback, the Vegas total for this massive NFC matchup is rightfully set at just 37.5.
Tampa Bay’s implied team total of 17 is the No. 3-lowest in Week 14. Against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 6 in the NFL in pass DVOA, Brady could struggle to even sniff the red zone, let alone find the end zone twice. He has stayed under this line in eight of his 12 games and four of his five on the road. The under is juiced to -145 on the sportsbooks for a reason.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): George Kittle (SF) UNDER 33.5 receiving yards
To add to a likely low-scoring, run-first narrative for San Francisco, where head coach Kyle Shanahan would not be thrilled to put the ball in the hands of Brock Purdy, we will take our shot at elite blocking tight end George Kittle being the biggest victim.
According to PlayerProfiler.com’s Data Analysis Plus tool that provides season-long play-by-play data, Kittle has only drawn two (!) of Purdy’s 45 targets this season.
This line is three yards higher on sportsbooks, and we’ll take advantage of that discount in this two-leg same-game stack.
Example Slips
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.
