This is the Best Pick ‘Em Player Props for Week 7! We finally got an offensive showcase on Thursday Night Football. However, this was not in a fantasy-football-shattering fashion as we saw touchdowns from several players not rostered in most leagues and not offered on pick ‘em sites. Is it going to be that kind of week? Or, will we see stars be stars in Week 7? Welcome back to the article series where we spot values in player prop over/unders. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value on the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Week 6 Review
In Week 6, the theme of losses was receivers with broken quarterback play. Early leans on the Underdog Pick Generator did well overall yet again, but the final card wasn’t ideal. Last week’s final wagers can be viewed in this article. This makes it back-to-back negative weeks, and it’s not a trend we want to set going forward. So it’s crucial that we refine the process and bounce back in Week 7. Here’s how it transpired.
Sleeper play: Cooper Kupp OVER 0.5 touchdowns, Devin Singletary OVER 20.5 receiving yards
Favored by double-digits entering the game, the Rams still looked troubled on offense in the first half of the game against the tanking Panthers. They bounced back in the second half and took control of the game. This allowed Kupp to take 100-percent of the offensive snaps in his fourth straight game. He drew eight targets for seven receptions and 80 yards, but he saw season-lows in air yards (51). Additionally, for only the second time in the season, Kupp did not draw a red zone target. Instead, Allen Robinson drew two red zone targets; he now has a red zone target in every single game this year and multiple red zone targets in three games as a Ram.
Devin Singletary gave us our only cashed leg of the week as his role continues to be clear. He’s a workhorse when the game is close, and he’ll be kept light when it’s not. In a fierce contest between the Bills and Chiefs, Singletary participated in 53.7-percent of the Buffalo routes and caught four passes on five targets for 22 yards.
Underdog play: Adam Thielen OVER 4.0 receptions, Michael Gallup OVER 40.5 receiving yards
The Adam Thielen read was a sharp one despite the push. I was relying on Justin Jefferson to be somewhat contained by star cornerback Xavien Howard. While Jefferson still managed to get to 100 yards, he saw single-digit targets for just the second time this season. As a result, Thielen saw eight targets. This number tied for his second-most on the season. He only caught four passes, however, including a touchdown, and drew 90 air yards which was his second-highest total on the season.
Michael Gallup, on the other hand—yikes. Put simply, the Eagles made me pay in sweat for betting against their defense. Gallup set season highs in snap share (80.0-percent), routes (30), and targets (7). However, all of it was just for him to secure two receptions for 18 yards. The uptick in volume meant this was a good read. A 29-percent catch rate is not something you can exactly predict.
- Week 5 Legs: 1-2-1; overall -0.50u
- YTD: 11-12-1; -1.50u
Week 7 Picks
Pick No. 1 (Sleeper): Darius Slayton UNDER 2.5 receptions
I’m surprised this line is offered. However, with the public high on Daniel Jones and the Giants right now, I wouldn’t be surprised by a lot of over-bettors. Too bad that’s not the right pick ‘em selection. The under is juiced to -130 on sportsbooks, and it’s because Darius Slayton has only cleared this number once on the season and three times in his last 14 games.
Slayton has seen his opportunity increase since a season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard in Week 3. Since then, Slayton has posted at least a 54-percent snap share and 53-percent route participation in every single game. The only time he went over this number was an anomaly game against the Packers in London where he hauled in six receptions on seven targets. That’s an anomaly for him, not a trend.
Last year, he ranked outside of the top 30 at his position in target separation, dominator rating, route win rate, and contested catch rate. We know who he is. He’s an inefficient player who isn’t the first option on his own short-handed team. In Week 7, he’ll line up with a projected matchup against Darious Williams who has allowed more than five targets his way only once this season and is one of the reasons the Jaguars rank above average as a defense, per pass DVOA.
Pick No. 2 (Sleeper): Cade Otton OVER 28.5 receiving yards
Yet again, we find value in taking this on Sleeper as a pick ‘em since this is juiced to the over (-140) on sportsbooks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will get the closest thing to a bye in the NFL right now as they’ll face the disgraceful Panthers. This game should be over by halftime even if Tom Brady is his average self. This could hurt the total production of No. 1 options like Leonard Fournette and Mike Evans, but it shouldn’t affect Otton.
Wide receiver Julio Jones is out, and starting tight end Cameron Brate is out. In the one game, Brate was inactive this season (Week 5), Otton handled 96.1-percent of the Tampa Bay snaps, 92.3-percent of the routes, and drew seven targets. He finished with six receptions for 43 yards despite the game being uncompetitive until late in the fourth quarter. Expect more of the same in Week 7 against the Panthers’ No. 25-ranked pass DVOA defense.
Pick No. 3 (Underdog): Brian Robinson OVER 51.5 rushing yards
We’re getting a discount of three yards since this line is at 54.5 on sportsbooks. I’d take this prop to that number if the Underdog line moves this weekend. The rookie Robinson is one of the NFL’s most incredible stories this season. In Week 6, he made the first start of his career. Thus, shelving Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic to second-fiddle rushing relief and receiving duties for the time being. Now, he gets to face the best matchup a rusher can face in this league—the Packers’ No. 32-ranked rush DVOA defense. Four of the five starting running backs Green Bay has faced this season have cleared this number including 100-yard performances by Breece Hall and David Montgomery. The over is a no-brainer.
Pick No. 4 (Underdog): Breece Hall OVER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
Is this a joke? An early Thanksgiving gift? This line is a staggering 12 yards higher on sportsbooks and even then, if the line moves close to 90, I would take the over on the best running back prospect of 2022. In Week 7, the Jets have to face the Broncos, who rank No. 1 in the NFL in pass DVOA. With wide receiver Elijah Moore inactive, and seeking a trade, and superstar cornerback Patrick Surtain II shadowing wide receiver Garrett Wilson, Hall should be heavily involved in dump-off passes from Wilson. This is especially true considering Denver’s defense ranks No. 3 in the NFL in quarterback pressure rate. He should also have no issues running on Denver since they rank No. 18 as a defense in rush DVOA and have already allowed five running backs to gather at least 60 yards on the ground alone.
Hall has cashed the over on this number in three of his last four games despite only being named the starter last week. It’s not the first time we’ve trusted him to be a high-volume, high-efficiency threat for a player prop and it won’t be the last.
Example Slips
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks, using all-in payout; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.
