There is a new way to make bets, and it’s called BetOpenly. These are BetOpenly Week 2 NFL Picks!
The clock is ticking and lines are moving across sportsbooks as it is time to bet on Week 2 of the 2023-24 NFL season. Some surprises were in the cards for the opening week of action. The Seahawks were upset by the short-handed Rams. The Bengals posted one of the worst offensive games of the weekend. Mac Jones nearly led the comeback of the week at home against the Philadelphia Eagles. As the season proceeds, however, it is important to use new information to make adjustments to priors and increase the aptitude we having to the betting market.
Perhaps the best decision you can make while betting is to find an edge across platforms. There is no better way to avoid paying unnecessary juice than a peer-to-peer platform like BetOpenly. Welcome back to our expert article series. Here, Billy Muzio, Trevor Tipton, and Ahaan S. Rungta provide their best picks to take on BetOpenly.
An Introduction to BetOpenly
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Ahaan’s Week 2 Picks
Bengals to win (-156)
The Cincinnati Bengals were one of the biggest offensive disappointments of Week 1. They only mustered one field goal in a divisional rivalry game. However, in their defense, they were still sturdy on defense and had to face a stacked Cleveland Browns defense in rainy conditions. The game plan should be much clearer against the Baltimore Ravens.
With tight end Mark Andrews, defensive backs Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams, and offensive linemen Tyler Linderbaum and Ronnie Stanley all either limited or absent in practice, Baltimore could be entering Week 2 very short-handed in their core. This should empower a Joe Burrow comeback game and a good spot for the Bengals defense.
The Ravens defense ranked just around middle-of-the-pack in pressure rate and quarterback rating allowed. This is good news for Burrow, who was one of the league’s best quarterbacks last year in adjusted yards per attempt and accuracy rating in a clean pocket and with the deep ball.
The Bengals defense was top-tier in Week 1, no surprise as they addressed areas of need in free agency and upgraded across the field. Baltimore’s offensive attack is still a question mark under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Additionally, it makes sense to pay the juice on the better and healthier team to avoid going down 0-2 on the season.
However, the good news is: there is less juice to pay on BetOpenly. This bet is around -170 on most sportsbooks, but we can get almost 15 cents better here.
Patriots to Win (+150)
Week 2’s Sunday Night Football matchup features a divisional rivalry between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. It involves two quarterbacks that put up impressive performances in Week 1. This line is favoring the more hyped offense coming off a win but is still short because New England deserves respect for their overall roster build.
In Week 1, Tua Tagovailoa relied on an accurate deep ball connection with wideout Tyreek Hill to cook for 466 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, and just one interception. However, that was against a compromised Chargers defense that has perennial secondary issues and hurried the quarterback only three times in the game. The Patriots are built differently on defense. Their depth on that side of the ball showed in Week 1 when they stymied one of the best offensive rosters in football, holding the Philadelphia Eagles to just one offensive touchdown.
Improved Offense
On offense, New England might just have taken a step forward as well under new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. In Week 1, Mac Jones marched down the field and put up a solid performance against the reigning NFC champions, posting a 35-54 passing line for 316 yards, three passing touchdowns, and one rain-inflicted interception. If he can put up a similar performance against the Miami secondary, a much easier target than Philadelphia, New England should be efficient on offense yet again. In Week 1, Miami posted a pressure rate of 35.0-percent (about middle-of-the-pack) and hurried the quarterback only four times. For comparison, last week, Jones’s opponentâthe Eaglesâhurried the quarterback an NFL-leading 17 times.
Miami is 4-0 against the spread against New England over the last two seasons and that is probably why over 80-percent of the public as of now is backing the 1-0 Dolphins. However, on paper, this matchup should be closer to a pick âem, and I’ll gladly back the new-look coaching staff of the Patriots in primetime to snap the streak as they get spotted a field goal on the spread and a +150 line to win outright. This bet is around +130 on most sportsbooks, but we can get an extra twenty cents of juice better on BetOpenly.
Trevor’s Week 2 Picks
49ers -7.5 (+102)
The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a convincing 30-7 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they took their foot off the gas in the second half. The 49ers have a strong defense that is led by Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. The Rams offense was held to just 13 points in the second half against the Seahawks, and they could struggle against San Francisco’s defense.
The 49ers have a balanced offense that can run and pass. The Rams have to try and stop Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and others while Brock Purdy continues to grow in his role. This surgical offense should expose the eight starting defensive players for the Rams that are either undrafted or rookies or late-round picks.
Kyle Shanahan’s squad is only being spotted 7.5 points, perhaps due to being the road team, but their fanbase should be well-represented at So-Fi Stadium, making this spread not just good value at pick âem but extreme value at +102 at BetOpenly (sportsbooks have this around -110).
Saquon Barkley rushing touchdown (+108)
For the player prop department, we are targeting the two-time Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. He has rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals defense allowed 122.5 rushing yards per game last season (No. 23 in the NFL).
In a Week 1 loss to the Cowboys, Barkley posted 51 rushing yards on 12 carries in a negative game script, which included a 20-yard breakout run. This is a glimpse of his ability to break tackles and burst out an explosive play. The Cardinals have allowed a rushing touchdown in 10 of their last 11 games, making this plus-money price a fantastic value at BetOpenly.
Billy’s Week 2 Picks
Chargers -3 (+104)
The aftermath of Week 1 has paved the way for the anticipated matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Tennessee Titans. Slated for Sunday, September 17, 2023, at the Nissan Stadium in Nashville, the Chargers, with a 3-point advantage, are gearing up for an intense game with a set over/under of 45 points.
Recent statistics illuminate defensive vulnerabilities for both teams:
Los Angeles Chargers’ Defense
- vs. QB:** Allowed 466 yards (highest in the NFL) with 3 TDs
- vs. WR:** Surrendered 375 yards (highest in NFL) with 3 touchdowns (most in the NFL), 21 receptions at a 72.4-percent completion rate, and an alarming 17.9 YPR (highest in NFL).
Tennessee Titans’ Defense
- vs. QB:** Conceded 305 passing yards (ranking 5th highest)
- vs. WR:** Gave up 262 yards (2nd highest), 1 TD (T8th), 18 receptions (5th highest) with a 72-percent completion percentage and 14.6 YPR (3rd highest).
Revisiting last year’s close contest, the Chargers edged the Titans 17-14. Heading into Week 2, the focus isn’t solely on offensive prowess. The defensive numbers suggest a potential nail-biter. Despite their defensive frailties in Week 1, the Chargers offensive weapons reign supreme in comparison to the Titans and Kellen Moore should be well-positioned to exploit the Titans’ susceptible secondary.
Patriots-Dolphins Under 46.5 (+100)
Week 2’s Sunday Night Football showcases a clash between AFC East rivals: the Patriots and the Dolphins. Miami’s impressive Week 1 victory over the Chargers spotlighted their formidable offense, with Tua Tagovailoa racking up a whopping 466 passing yards. On the contrary, New England faced a setback against the Eagles, losing 25-20.
While Miami’s prowess on the offense is evident with elites like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, New England’s strength lies in their ground game and sturdy defense. Mac Jones, the Patriots’ quarterback, managed 316 yards against the Eagles, but such high numbers aren’t guaranteed.Â
Despite the Patriots’ home advantage, the moneyline makes them the underdog. Historically, Miami has a track record of outperforming New England, with five wins in their last seven matchups.Â
The Over/Under for the game, set at 46.5, leans toward a higher-scoring game. Yet, considering the Patriots’ defensive strategy and past records between these two, a lower total score seems more likely. With New England’s emphasis on defense, especially after their Week 1 display against the Eagles, the prediction tilts towards the âUnder.â Expect a close encounter, with a probable score of 24-21.
