This is BetOpenly Week 7 Picks! Welcome back to our expert article series, where the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly—a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 6, our picks were reverse swept. The Seahawks and Patriots each lost on their final possession in heartbreaking fashion. Additionally, Zay Flowers and Tyreek Hill both missed by the hook. It ended a season-long hot streak. However, Week 7 is a great chance to make it back. This week, we are back with best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, with odds that you can only get betting peer-to-peer on BetOpenly.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). Users also have the option to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail the picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 7 Picks
Chicago Bears to Win (+122)
The Las Vegas Raiders have a mediocre 3-3 record. There is plenty of evidence that they aren’t even as good as that record suggests. They have two consecutive one-score wins at home. However, both read as fraudulent. One of them was against Jordan Love, who had his worst start of the season. Love put up a -16% completion percentage over expectation and 16.6 expected quarterback rating while missing wide open throws all night. The other win was against a dysfunctional Patriots offense that still would have been in position to kick a game-winning field goal if not for a final-possession drop from wide receiver DeVante Parker on an open bomb.
Life Without Fields
Of course, they are now facing a Bears offense that is far from inspiring. With Bagent now the starter instead of former first-round pick Justin Fields, betting on Matt Eberflus’ squad is hard to swallow. However, one must remember that it’s not like Fields was lighting it up himself. On the season, he ranks No. 30 in clean pocket completion percentage, No. 21 in true completion percentage, and No. 33 in catchable pass rate. Las Vegas ranks No. 27 in team defense EXP, No. 25 in pressure rate, No. 23 in pass rush win rate, and No. 18 in run stop win rate. They give up big plays by the bunch. Additionally, Chicago has playmakers like D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney, and Cole Kmet.
On offense, the Raiders will be led by Brian Hoyer. Among 85 qualified quarterbacks since the 2020 season, Hoyer ranks No. 59 in adjusted EPA per play, No. 68 in completion percentage over expectation, and No. 55 in success rate. We know who he is. That is someone who cannot be trusted as a starter in this league. Chicago’s defense has sneakily been improving. They now rank No. 10 in run stop win rate. That means Las Vegas cannot just ride their star running back Josh Jacobs into controlling the tempo of this game.
Even if the Raiders find their way to sneak a third consecutive close win by, they do not deserve to be favorites by nearly a full field goal. On most sportsbooks, you can take Chicago to win at around +115. On BetOpenly, you can buy them at +122.
Trevor’s Week 7 Picks
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Week 7 finishes up on Monday night with the San Francisco 49ers facing the Minnesota Vikings. Aiyuk now gets to face the Vikings defense which currently is No. 31 in yards allowed per game and No. 29 in touchdowns allowed. The 49ers are likely to be without Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey this week. Aiyuk has already had two games with over 100 yards receiving this season and this week should be his third.
Aiyuk currently leads the 49ers in Targets, RTE%, Yards Per Route Run while having over double the air yards of any other target on the team with 569. We now add in a 15.4 ADOT with 111 yards of YAC this season, and this is a dream spot of Aiyuk. McCaffrey being most likely out for this week, and the Viking being one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, will allow Shanahan to open up the offense through the air for Purdy and Aiyuk. We will also be laddering Aiyuk up this week as he faces a ton of Akayleb Evans who will have almost no ability to cover the standout wide receiver.
The 49ers have one of the highest team totals on the slate this week with a 26.5 line. A majority of this offense will come through the air this week with Aiyuk being the main beneficiary of facing a Vikings pass defense that has given up 1164 yards, 11.6 yards per route, 100 receptions and a league worst 74.6% catch rate to opposing wide receivers. PlayerProfiler models Aiyuk for six catches and 89 yards this week, giving us a major advantage vs this line.
Jahan Dotson (WSH) UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards -105
Jahan Dotson is a rookie wide receiver out of Penn State being grossly misused by Ron Rivera and company. After going No. 15 in the draft, there were high hopes for Dotson this season. He has not been relevant after opening the season with five receptions on eight targets. This week they face the New York Giants who are No. 16 in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. The Giants have allowed only three players this season to go over 100 receiving yards against them.
First, the Giants have a good pass rush, led by Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari. This could put pressure on Commanders quarterback Sam Howell and force him to get rid of the ball quickly, making it difficult for Dotson to get downfield. Second, Dotson is currently the fifth option in this offense. Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and, Antonio Gibson are all seeing better opportunities in this offense. The craziest stat for Dotson is he leads the team in routes run while having games of 22,21,27,30 and zero yards since Week 1. We now saw Dotson working in practice with the special teams unit this week. This is not looking good for the rookie and his production this week vs Deonte Banks who will be able to lock up Dotson.
The Giants have been very good against the slot this season while being one of the worst teams in the NFL against the run. We expect high usage of Robinson and Gibson this week against a Giants run defense currently giving up 5.1 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns this season. Only the Broncos and Panthers have been worse at giving up yards to running backs this year.
