If people had to chose the top tight end from the 2020 class based on production, it would be difficult to not go with Brycen Hopkins. In a class that has many possible hits but no clear cut winner, studying the advanced stats and metrics for these players is even more crucial.
Hopkins is a player that became more productive in every year of college. After redshirting in his first year at Purdue, he had minimal usage as a freshman. He ended up with only 10 receptions, but four of them went for touchdowns. He steadily improved and became more involved as a sophomore and junior. However, he put it together in his senior year, catching 61 passes for 830 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games. In four years with statistics, he never averaged less than 13.6 yards per reception.
Brycen Hopkins Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Hopkins has the perfect build for today’s NFL. He’s 6-4 and 245-pounds. His athleticism is as impressive as his 23.7-percent (72nd-percentile among qualified tight ends) College Dominator Rating. He ran a 4.66 40-Yard Dash at the combine. That’s in the 82nd-percentile. He might only have average burst and slightly above average agility, but there are no athletic red flags.
Brycen Hopkins College Stats
The only metric that is not ideal on Hopkins’ profile is his late 22.4 (13th-percentile) Breakout Age. In his defense, Breakout Age is not as crucial for tight ends because many tight ends in the NFL did not play that much in college, and a few that went on to be successful played other positions in college. Also, his steady increase in production shows that he has been learning the game and his position, suggesting he could be one of the more “pro-ready” tight ends from this class to hit the ground running.
Check out Brycen Hopkins on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Rookie Rankings:
Hopkins’ closest comp on PlayerProfiler is Josh Oliver, who was drafted in the early third round last year but didn’t see the field much due to injury. Other players he resembles are Hayden Hurst and Jared Cook. If his development mirrors that of those players, then people will need to be patient with his development. Hurst will hopefully break out in Atlanta after a few lackluster seasons in Baltimore, and Cook did not make an impact until later on in his career.
It’s never a good idea to draft rookie tight ends in redraft unless they are guaranteed hits. There are no guaranteed hits in the 2020 tight end class, so apply this to Hopkins. In dynasty rookie drafts, no 2020 tight end should be drafted before the fourth round. However, if he’s still hanging around at that point, he may be worth the gamble if the running back and wide receiver well has dried up. He could be the best tight end of this draft class with the emphasis on “could.” Therefore, even with an ideal landing spot and desirable draft capital, don’t overreach for him.
