With fantasy league trade deadlines approaching, here is one one buy-low candidate and one sell-high player based on advanced stats, metrics, and analytics profiles.
Negative Game Script
The 49ers’ 0-8 start to the season has resulted in a -8.66 Game Script, the lowest in the NFL. Anything under -5.0 is catastrophic, particularly for a running back. Positive game script fuels running back touches in the second half, while negative script strangles second half opportunities.
Supporting Cast Anchor
Even as San Francisco started 0-4, Carlos Hyde was a top-20 fantasy running back each of the first four weeks of the season as Brian Hoyer kept the team competitive, evidenced by heartbreaking overtime losses to the Rams and Colts. Desperate 49ers coaches then benched Hoyer in favor of C.J. Beathard, replacing close losses with blowout losses. Despite C.J. Beathard’s inability to sustain drives, and as double-digit deficits nullified the running game, Hyde commanded touches in the team’s few high leverage situations and found creative ways to score fantasy points in all phases. Even in the midst of an eight-game losing streak, Hyde’s 21.5 PPR points in week 9 was incredibly impressive in context.
Carlos Hyde is achieving a fantasy RB1 season while playing in the worst possible situation for a running back. San Francisco’s 60.5 run blocking efficiency grade on PlayerProfiler ranks outside the top-20 in the NFL. Hyde is succeeding behind a below-average offensive line with pure tackle breaking ability and elusiveness, evidenced by his 20.7-percent Juke Rate.
Turning Tide
Fortunately, Jimmy Garoppolo has the keys to unlock Hyde’s potential. In a small NFL sample, Garoppolo was outstanding filling in for Tom Brady. He has the ability to sustain drives, elevate Hyde’s red zone touches, and elevate all skill position players in San Francisco. Given Hyde’s 65.1-percent RB Opportunity Share, he stand to benefit most of all.
| Metric | Value |
| True Completion Percentage | 68.3% |
| True Passer Rating | 115.6 |
| Adjusted Yards Per Attempt | 9.2 |
| Total QBR | 90.0 |
| Production Premium | +25.5 |
Jimmy Garoppolo 2016 Advanced Stats on PlayerProfiler.com
Hyde’s standalone efficiency and primary back role suggests an effective quarterback would propel him to top-5 fantasy running back conversation in the second half of the 2017 season. Acquire Hyde before fantasy league trade deadlines.
