NFL TRADE: Carolina Lands No. 1 Pick | Fantasy Fallout

by Theo Gremminger · NFL

NFL Trade alert! Life sometimes comes at you fast, and fantasy football is no different. A seemingly quiet Friday full of Aaron Rodgers rumors and free agency previews was turned upside down as Carolina and Chicago completed an absolute blockbuster trade. We are here to analyze not only the trade, and what it means to both franchises, but also the fantasy fallout that comes with it.

Carolina sent the No. 9 and No. 61 overall picks, a 2024 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick, and D.J. Moore to Chicago for the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft—an absolute beauty of a trade that will reshape both franchises over the next few seasons.

Chicago did what it set out to do: maximized its position of holding the top pick, cashing out for a massive haul. Carolina will pick No. 1 overall for the first time since they selected Cam Newton. With this price tag paid, they must view one of these QBs as a potential superstar. 

D.J. Moore

A funny thing happened in Chicago’s quest to trade down and accumulate picks: they traded for their WR1.

The Bears trading down was predictable. Cody Carpentier projected them to do so earlier this week in his Mock Draft 4.0. With 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields already established as their QB, accumulating multiple picks was the correct choice for the franchise. But few could have predicted they would also have a chance to add a WR like Moore. In one swoop, Chicago had significant wins for the franchise’s long-term goals and immediate offensive needs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k968aE4iVss&t=1029s

If we simply look back over the past few seasons, it is easy to get excited about Moore’s potential in the Chicago offense. Over the last four seasons, he has finished as the WR24, WR18, WR25, and WR16. He has never completed a season where he finished below WR36 (his Rookie season) in any year of his career. Only 25 years old, Moore has 364 career receptions for 5,201 yards. Moore has not had that massive standout season that fantasy managers hoped for when he was drafted in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. 

There are some concerns about Moore’s 2023 production. Chicago had only 377 passing attempts, and no player had more than 50 receptions in 2022. In the PlayerProfiler redraft rankings, Moore was moved down from a low-end WR2 to a Mid-level WR3. I understand the cause for concern, but I will be higher on Moore in 2023 Redraft than some of my colleagues. 

I will take a bullish outlook for Moore, especially in Dynasty. He is a player I want to roster in as many leagues as possible. I do not want to overpay for the news and new surroundings, but I expect him to be utilized and featured as the focal point of the passing game and the offense as a whole. Good NFL offenses change with their personnel, and I expect Matt Eberflus to utilize Moore’s talent set all season long. 

Justin Fields Has a Path to a QB1 Overall Season

Despite no clear WR1 and a lack of offensive weapons, Fields was already being drafted as the QB5 overall by FFPC drafters right behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow. I expect him to flip spots with Burrow. 

Fields was the QB5 overall in 2022 despite playing in 15 games. He threw 17 passing TDs which tied for No. 16 overall amongst quarterbacks. His incredible rushing ability carried his fantasy output. He led all QBs with 1,143 yards rushing- No. 1 among all QBs and the No. 2 most all-time in a single season, trailing only Lamar Jackson‘s 1,206 in 2019. He also added eight rushing TDs, No. 2 amongst QBs trailing only Hurts. 

Fields now has a clear path to an even stronger fantasy season in 2023. The Bears were No. 19 in Red Zone Scoring Attempts with only 2.9 per game. They were even worse in Points Per Game, finishing No. 23 with 19.2 Points Per Game. The Bears can easily increase both numbers to the league’s upper half, and Fields should be a significant beneficiary. Adding Moore should help a great deal with the overall offensive efficiency. Passing-wise, Fields does not need to put up an incredible increase in passing production to see his fantasy output rise. Simply passing for 25-27 TDs in a better, more productive offense is a reasonable bet. 

Moore is a more substantial addition than any free agent wide receiver available would have been, and that is an understatement. Moore also frees up Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool to slide into their roles as WR2 and WR3- roles they are much more suited for. Velus Jones should be the WR4. All four players are in their mid-20s and have outstanding speed. TE Cole Kmet, Fields’ leading receiver in 2022, will remain the primary tight end. 

The sky is the limit for Fields this season. Fantasy managers could look at a Lamar Jackson 2019 or Jalen Hurts 2022-type year to see the kind of fantasy output possible from Fields in 2023. 

The Bears No. 9 Overall Pick

Chicago could trade down again or stand put at No. 9 overall. If I were drafting for the Bears, I would select the local product Peter Skoronski of Northwestern. He would be a perfect fit as he can play multiple offensive line positions and projects as a long-term answer at offensive tackle. Fellow Northwestern product Rashawn Slater of the Chargers was an instant impact player, and Skoronski could be that sort of player.

Chicago could choose to address their offensive line needs in free agency. If they determine that path and want to focus on the defensive side of the ball in the draft, they could select cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez, Cam Smith, or Joey Porter Jr, or an edge rusher like Myles Murphy. 

With the No. 54 and No. 61 overall picks, Chicago can add two more instant-impact players.

The bottom line is that Chicago can move around the draft as they see fit, adding impact players or collecting more picks for the future. They are in a terrific spot. 

Carolina Spent Big. They Will Select a QB at No. 1 Overall. 

Carolina has drafted a considerable amount of defensive talent in the past few seasons and will now address the most critical position in football: quarterback. The last time Carolina selected a QB at the top spot in the draft, they ended up with 2015 MVP Cam Newton. Under Newton, Carolina reached heights never seen by their franchise. They had a 15-1 regular season record in 2015 and lost the Super Bowl to Denver in 2016. Newton was one of the league’s brightest stars. 

The amount they paid for the top pick was massive, but the potential rewards of a long-term answer at QB can solve many problems. In Cody Carpentier’s latest Mock Draft 4.0, he projects Stroud to be selected No. 1 overall. Oddsmakers agree, and Stroud has moved from +200 to be the first pick to -300 with some books. He is now a firm favorite.

Stroud makes a lot of sense. In a peak outcome scenario, he projects like former Buckeye (yes, they can still claim him) Joe Burrow. At the NFL Combine, Stroud wowed scouts with his impressive passing ability and displayed an effortless deep ball. An incredibly productive Buckeye, Stroud passed for 85 TDs in his illustrious career. In his final game, Stroud put on a QB masterclass with a game for the ages in a 42-41 loss to eventual National Title winner Georgia. He had one of the best games of his career against a defense littered with future NFL players, passing for 348 yards and four TD passes. 



Stroud measured in at 6-3 214 pounds but did not test athletically at the combine. Despite his speed, Stroud was never known for his rushing ability. 

The NFC South is in flux. Derek Carr is now a Saint, the Buccaneers have to replace Tom Brady, and Atlanta is hopeful Desmond Ridder is the long-term answer at QB for them, but that remains to be seen. Stroud and Carolina have a path to competing for the division title immediately under first-year head coach Frank Reich. 

Carolina 2023 Offensive Personnel 

There is an absolute chasm right now in terms of offensive skill position players. D’Onta Foreman had a productive season. He ran for 914 yards and five TDs. Foreman will have some interest on the free agent market, but a return to Carolina would make sense and help support a young QB. Chuba Hubbard is entering his third season in Carolina. He made some strides in Year 2, with 647 yards rushing/receiving. Neither player is the long-term answer at RB, but do not rule out a Foreman/Hubbard backfield again in 2023. 

Wide receiver and tight end need more weapons. Terrace Marshall, the 2021 second-round pick out of LSU, is the most promising receiver on the roster. He had a virtual zero of a rookie year but made strides over the second half of the 2022 season. Marshall had five games with 50 or more receiving yards, finishing the season with 490 yards. Marshall has a chance at a full-time role this season, although the book on Carolina pass catchers still needs to be written. 

Shi Smith and Laviska Shenault are also on the roster. Both look to be depth pieces long term. (Pour one out for Laviska Shenault dynasty Twitter- those days were a lot of fun). 

Expect Carolina to add a veteran WR in free agency. I do not expect them to overpay, and this could be an appealing situation for a one-year “prove it” type veteran to land (think 2022 D.J. Chark signing with Detroit.) I also expect Carolina to address the TE position. Tommy Tremble and Ian Thomas combined for 40 catches in 2022. A long-term TE could help speed the growth and maturation of a young QB.

With the No. 39 pick, Carolina could add a dynamic weapon. RB Jahmyr Gibbs could be an ideal fit for a QB like Stroud. A WR like Josh Downs could step into an immediate role with a high target share. 

Bottom Line

This was the standout moment of the NFL offseason. The lesson learned is never to get too comfortable. Big moves happen in the NFL and timing is never predictable. It is going to be exciting off-season. Stay on PlayerProfiler for all of the fantasy reactions to The NFL’s biggest moves.