Nine weeks into the NFL season, DFS grinders now have a significant data sample to examine ahead of each week. Looking to Week 10, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges we can exploit in this slate of games. Here are a few value plays and GPP targets for the DraftKings’ Week 10 Main Slate.
Kyler Murray ($6,500) – Arizona Cardinals
With most viable quarterbacks priced up on this slate, Kyler Murray actually provides a bit of value at $6,500. Despite his ups and downs, Murray ranks fifth in overall pass attempts with 316 and second among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 313. He also continues to improve from an efficiency perspective. So far this season, his 51.3-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage ranks fifth among qualified quarterbacks.
This week, Murray benefits from a matchup against Tampa Bay’s weak secondary. The Bucs currently rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game (293.5), but first in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (71.8). With the total already sitting at 48.5-points, Arizona’s standout matchup makes Murray a solid play at $6,500.
Marlon Mack ($7,000) – Indianapolis Colts
This week’s winner of the Miami Dolphins lottery is Marlon Mack. Aside from matchup, Mack still averages 20 carries a game in Indianapolis’ backfield while playing 62.8-percent on the snaps. The Colts seldom use him as a pass catcher, but game script points to a run-heavy approach with the Colts being 11-point favorites.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDbvULJz3EQ
Looking specifically at the Dolphins’ defense, Miami allows the second-most rushing yards per game (150.6). Mack also continually creates on his own with 45 (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Evaded Tackles this year. With his own ability to evade tackles combined with Miami’s soft defense, the Colts’ rushing attack provides immense value on the Week 10 slate.
Jaylen Samuels ($6,300) – Pittsburgh Steelers
With James Conner currently listed as doubtful and Trey Edmunds and Benny Snell unlikely to play, Jaylen Samuels remains the lone healthy back in Pittsburgh. Last week, Samuels handled an absurd 13 targets in Pittsburgh’s offense with an additional eight rush attempts. Edmunds siphoned 12 rush attempts himself, potentially creating additional work for Samuels this week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpaSHhaiFoA
The Rams continue to play decent defense, but Samuels’ volume in the pass game remains impossible to fade. Pittsburgh as a whole targets running backs at the eighth-highest rate in football (24.4-percent). Samuels himself saw an absurd 37-percent target share last week. At just $6,300, Samuels remains a strong play here.
Chris Godwin ($7,400) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After Mike Evans two-week explosion, Chris Godwin looks likely to enter Week 10 under-owned. While Evans received 12 and 16 targets each of the past two weeks, Godwin saw eight and nine targets himself. Looking at efficiency metrics, he also checks all the boxes. He enters Week 10 with a 126.9 (No. 12) QB Rating When Targeted and a +36.1 (No. 7) Production Premium.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bICwLcG2o24
In addition to strong volume and efficiency metrics, Godwin draws a tantalizing matchup against a weak Arizona Cardinals’ secondary. He specifically projects to face off against Byron Murphy, who has allowed a 138.2 (No. 74) Passer Rating Allowed in his coverage, setting up Godwin for a productive fantasy outing in Week 10.
Christian Kirk ($5,200) – Arizona Cardinals
Sticking to the Arizona-Tampa Bay game, Christian Kirk offers stacking potential with Murray at just $5,200. Since returning from injury, Kirk has played 91 and 100-percent of Arizona’s snaps. Unlike previous weeks, he played outside the slot on 78-percent of his snaps. However, he remained a favorite target of Kyler Murray, seeing a team-leading 16 targets in his last two games.
Check out Christian Kirk on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Kirk and the Cardinals’ offense draw Tampa Bay’s pass-funneling defense. Specifically, Kirk is projected to face Vernon Hargreaves, who has allowed a 117.5 (No. 57) Passer Rating Allowed in his coverage. With matchup and volume on his side, Kirk remains a solid value play in Week 10.
Josh Reynolds ($3,800) – Los Angeles Rams
With Brandin Cooks suffering his second concussion this year, Josh Reynolds stepped up to play a major role in the Rams’ offense last week. Reynolds played 88-percent of the Rams’ snaps, while receiving eight targets and generating 138 Air Yards. Priced at just $3,800, that volume deserves a long look on an already tight slate.
Josh Reynolds Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Seeing a majority of his targets downfield, Reynolds capitalized on his Week 9 opportunities for 73 yards and a score. Looking back to 2018, he proved an efficient receiver with a 1.79 (No. 10) Target Separation mark. Showing the ability to create space, Reynolds presents an easy target for Jared Goff and a potential DFS value in Week 10.
Greg Olsen ($3,600) – Carolina Panthers
While his box scores look light, Greg Olsen continues to play an every-down role in Carolina’s offense. Olsen played 92-percent of Carolina’s snaps last week and still averages 5.1 targets per game. Digging a little deeper, his 71.9-percent Route Participation mark ranks sixth in the NFL.
Looking at matchup, Olsen and the Panthers face the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. So far this season, the Packers have allowed the fifth-most yards to enemy tight ends (529). With Kyle Allen continuing to spread the ball around, Olsen remains worth a look at $3,600 this week.
