Opportunity can often breed success, and sometimes that opportunity is bred from the altering of a team’s roster, even when completely unexpected. Once we witness those changes, we begin to get excited over the potential for success that has suddenly presented itself to talented players who have yet to see the opportunity they need to prove their fantasy value based on advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profiles.
This week we have a chance to see several players take advantage of the opportunity that is suddenly knocking at their door, as they look to benefit from situational matchups that could yield positive results. Mike Evans is suspended, George Kittle is injured, and C.J. Anderson is everything we expected. It’s time to take what we know heading into Week 10, and call a few breakouts for this week’s fantasy matchups.
Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers
Chris Godwin is most definitely not fool’s gold when it comes to what he could contribute to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers when given a chance. This week, Godwin has a chance to see a career high in targets, receptions, Snap Share, everything, thanks to the suspension that was handed down to Mike Evans following an unnecessary roughness penalty from Week 9.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tj4mK5DaOdk
Chris Godwin has the athletic profile to be a top slot receiver, and could be leaned on in the Buccaneer’s Week 10 matchup against the Jets, replacing Evans as the possession receiver on third downs. With a 6-foot-1, 209-pound frame, a 4.42 40-yard dash (89th-percentile) and 109.5 Speed Score (89th-percentile), Chris Godwin has the size and athleticism to lineup anywhere on the field as a wide receiver, and was on of the best rookie receivers in this year’s NFL Draft, evidenced by a 34.9-percent College Dominator Rating (66th-percentile), a 16.6 college YPR (76th-percentile) and 19.5 Breakout Age (77th-percentile).
Chris Godwin Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Despite being without both Mike Evans and Jameis Winston in Week 10, the Buccaneers, who rank sixth in pass attempts per game (40 per game), could be forced to throw early and often against the Jets, who will look to take advantage of Tampa Bay’s 30th ranked pass defense. Should the Buccaneers find themselves down by multiple scores, we can expect to see the highly athletic Godwin in three receiver sets often, as he looks to carve a meaty stat line thanks in large to his pending increased Snap Share.
Garrett Celek, TE, 49ers
George Kittle is out with an ankle injury, and somebody on the 49ers has to take advantage of a Giants defense in Week 10 that is allowing +7.46 points above the mean (NFL worst) to opposing tight ends, and flailing to the tune of a 1-7 record.
With George Kittle out, it’s time for Garrett to step in and turn in an unprecedented top-10 performance for fantasy gamers this week. While Celek has a less than impressive athletic profile, the opportunity for a big fantasy week lies within him. Playing for a team that is averaging the most pass attempts per game (44), and that boasts an underwhelming defense, the 49ers have no choice but to move the ball through the air on nearly every down.
Garrett Celek Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
In George Kittle‘s injury game last week, Garrett Celek saw a season-high 77.9-percent Snap Share, while also running a season best 28 routes and seeing a high of four targets. In what appears to be an ideal matchup, Celek looks like a must start candidate against the Giants, who have struggled with stopping opposing tight ends all season.
Corey Davis, WR, Titans
Corey Davis is back after a five game hiatus, and saw a season-high 77.9-percent Snap Share in his Week 9 return against the Ravens, hauling in two receptions on five targets for 28 yards and no touchdowns. It was an encouraging return for Davis, as the Titans have struggled to find production in the receiving game beyond incumbent Rishard Matthews, who is ranked 39th in fantasy points per game (11.1).
While the Titans currently rank 27th in pass attempts per game (33), Corey Davis has a chance to see a majority of those pass attempts thrown his way, having drawing a 19.6-percent Target Share (no. 33) over limited action in three games, were he never eclipsed more than the 77.6-percent Snap Share he saw last week against Baltimore. Davis now has a chance to see an increase in snaps heading into Week 10, according to head coach Mike Mularkey, and in taking a look at PlayerProfiler.com’s Cornerback Rankings, could see a lot of Adam Jones, who ranks as the No. 47 cornerback in the NFL right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nz-rPDC6azU
The Titans are desperate for a big-bodied wide receiver to develop into Mariota’s favorite red zone target, after Eric Decker appears to have come up short after signing with the Titans following his release this offseason. If there’s any validity to the coach’s statement earlier this week about Davis’ increased usage, watch this year’s No. 5 overall pick rise to fantasy stardom down the stretch, as he looks to prove himself worth of the top receiver slot in Tennessee.
Devontae Booker, RB, Broncos
Over the last two weeks, C.J. Anderson has touched the ball a grand total of 25 times, all while Devontae Booker has totaled 17 touches over the last two weeks, racking up a grand total of 84-yards over that two-game span. Anderson continues to be the player we expect. Through eight games thus far, Anderson has just two games in which he fell within the top-20 among fantasy running backs, and he has yet to find the end zone in all but one of those games. On 116 carries this season, Anderson has just 482 rushing yards, and has yet to return in the red zone, despite his 22 red zone touches this season (no. 9 overall). As a matter of fact, Anderson’s two total touchdowns are the fewest among any running back in the league who is top-10 in red zone touches.
2017 Running Back Red Zone Touches and Touchdowns
Enter Devontae Booker, who had a chance to take over as the lead back in his 2016 rookie campaign, but struggled behind an offensive line that ranked 26th in run blocking efficiency according to PlayerProfiler.com. Booker projects as the true bell cow back that is poised to takeover the early down work that is slowly slipping from C.J. Anderson. During his time at Utah, Devontae Booker posted a 40.1-percent College Dominator Rating (87th-percentile) and 14.3-percent college target share (90th-percentile).
Devontae Booker Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
He showed flashes last season as an every-down back, both on the ground and through the air, but topped 100-plus total yards of offense only twice in what was a full rookie campaign. Booker finished his rookie season with 31 receptions (no. 29) for 265 receiving yards (no. 26) and was 26th in rushing yards with 612 yards and five total touchdowns (no. 33). Heading into 2017, Anderson reclaimed his starting role, but has slowly given way to Booker over the last few weeks. In a week against the Patriots where the Broncos will likely be facing negative game flow, Devontae Booker has a chance to capitalize in Week 10 by dominating the passing down opportunities and completing the process of relegating C.J. Anderson once and for all.
