Week 10 was a smashing success. We highlighted Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas, Ronald Jones and Travis Kelce, all of whom finished in the top-five at their respective positions. We even gave you Christian Kirk, who scored three touchdowns on his way to an overall WR1 finish. Of course, Saquon Barkley and Cooper Kupp were complete flops, but we’re not perfect. This week, we present 13 more lock-button players who are primed for success. These players should be in your lineups based on usage, opportunity, matchups, advanced stats and metrics. Let’s assume PPR scoring with four points per passing touchdown.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
Matchup: Ravens
Texans at Ravens is undoubtedly the most anticipated game of the week. It has the highest over/under on the main slate. Both quarterbacks in this contest are great plays, but we will go with the cheaper option here. Deshaun Watson has finished as a top-five quarterback in more than half of his starts, and only Lamar Jackson averages more fantasy points per game.
Check out Deshaun Watson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Watson averages five deep pass attempts per game and may get big-play threat Will Fuller back from injury this week. Watson is top-10 in all major passing statistics and metrics, but is also getting it done with his legs. He ranks top-five among quarterbacks in rush attempts, rushing yards, red zone carries and rushing touchdowns. Watson is $700 cheaper than Jackson on FanDuel and $900 less on DraftKings, with just as much upside.
D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
Matchup: Falcons
D.J. Moore has averaged 10 targets per game over his last four, reaching 100 yards in each of the last two. Moore is top-10 in targets, receptions and yards after the catch. He has the lowest touchdown rate of any receiver with at least 600 yards. Sooner or later the scores will come, so why not Week 11?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQ4sbNIjjKM
The Panthers and Falcons project to combine for the second-highest point total of the week, so there will be opportunities for Moore to find the end zone. Moore, who played 100-percent of the snaps in Week 10, should torch a Falcons secondary that has allowed 12 wide receiver touchdowns in nine games. Atlanta has surrendered the eighth most passing yards per game and 41.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Despite his production and mouth-watering matchup, Moore is priced at $6,000 (WR35) on FanDuel and $5,900 (WR25) on DraftKings.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints
Matchup: Buccaneers
Michael Thomas ranks first among all wide receivers in targets, Target Share, receptions, receiving yards and Fantasy Points Per Game. He is top-three in both Completed Air Yards and yards after the catch. Like last week, Thomas is the most expensive wide receiver on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is still worth the cost for those looking to spend big on a receiver. In the Saints’ surprising loss to Atlanta, Thomas caught 13-of-14 targets for 152 yards and finished as the WR5. He gets a similarly juicy matchup in Week 11. The Buccaneers have allowed the most passing yards per game and the most touchdown receptions by wide receivers. Opposing wideouts average 50.6 fantasy points per game against them, the highest rate in the NFL. Lock-in Thomas as this week’s WR1.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
Matchup: Bengals
Josh Jacobs has finished as a top-12 running back in four of his last five games. He carried the ball at least 15 times in all five of those contests, including three where he topped 20 attempts. Jacobs should easily reach that number again in Week 11 with the Raiders being 10.5-point favorites at home against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered 29.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, the third highest rate in the NFL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l1Yi2BrmFA
Not only are they vulnerable against the run, they have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game to running backs. While Jacobs hasn’t been used a ton in the passing game, he saw a season-high 16-percent target share in Week 10. He has reached at least a 10-percent target share in three of his last five games. Jacobs is appropriately priced as the RB4 at $8,000 on FanDuel, but is underpriced at $6,900 and the RB9 on DraftKings. He is a great play on both platforms.
Brian Hill, RB, Falcons
Matchup: Panthers
Playing a running back who is on the road as a 5.5-point underdog is typically not ideal, but Brian Hill is an exception. After Devonta Freeman went down with a foot injury in Week 10, Hill stepped in and carried 20 times for 61 yards with one reception for a 10-yard touchdown. The only other Falcons running back to see the field was Kenjon Barner, who had one touch. Hill has an above average Speed Score, Burst Score and Agility Score. At 6-1, 219-pounds, he possesses ideal size for a three-down workload. He is a proven quality pass-catcher out of the backfield with a 55th-percentile College Target Share and a 20-reception season as a sophomore at Wyoming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BVZklvmAD9w
With Austin Hooper out, Hill may benefit from additional targets to the running backs on underneath routes and dump-off passes. The Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to running backs over the last four weeks and the most rushing touchdowns on the season. Hill is a high-floor play with touchdown upside considering this game’s high over/under. At $4,800 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel, he is a lock-button play for those looking to save money at the position.
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
Matchup: Texans
Mark Andrews was the top-scoring tight end for the second time this season in Week 10. He has a chance to do it again in what may be the week’s highest scoring game. Andrews is second among all tight ends in Target Share and leads the position in deep targets. His 11.1 yards of Average Target Distance are second only to Hunter Henry. With Henry and Travis Kelce playing on Monday night, and George Kittle and Austin Hooper out with injuries, Andrews becomes the top play at the position in Week 11.
Other Locks:
Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens vs Texans: It doesn’t get more obvious than this.
Devin Singletary, RB, Bills at Dolphins: Singletary has played on 67-percent of the Bills offensive snaps over the last three weeks, and has seen a target share of at least 17-percent in each of those three games. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings vs Broncos: 10.5-point favorites at home and more than $1,500 cheaper than Christian McCaffrey on both DFS platforms.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin vs Saints: Both Bucs wide receivers are top-five options this week in a shootout at home. No Marshon Lattimore for the Saints.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers vs Cardinals: Samuel played 84-percent of the snaps in Week 10 and saw a season-high 11 targets (24-percent target share). The 49ers will be without George Kittle, and Emmanuel Sanders appears unlikely to play as well. Samuel is $5,600 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings.
Jared Cook, TE, Saints at Buccaneers: High-volume role in a high-scoring game, against the Bucs who can’t cover opposing tight ends. Easy.
