With injuries to a number of NFL stars, the Week 3 DraftKings main slate provided endless value. However after gathering more information the Week 4 main slate features tighter pricing. Despite the challenging slate, advanced stats and metrics point to a few distinct edges. With that said, here are a few value plays and GPP pivots on the DraftKings’ Week 4 main slate.
Daniel Jones ($5,300) – New York Giants
After a breakout performance for 39.2 DK points, Daniel Jones saw his salary increase by a mere $300 ahead of Week 4. A clear upgrade on Eli Manning, Jones completed 63.9-percent of his passes for 336 yards and three scores on Sunday. While still a small sample, Jones out-performed Manning in a number of key metrics. Jones’ 77.8-percent Pressured Completion Percentage (No.1) dwarfed Manning’s 25-percent (No.29). Jones also added fantasy value with his legs. After running for over 1,300 yards at Duke, Jones scrambled for 28 yards in his first NFL start.
This week, Jones faces a struggling Washington Redskins team. So far, they’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns, including three to Mitch Trubisky last week. While all of Washington’s corners have struggled, Josh Norman, in particular, has allowed 226 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage. With multiple matchups for Jones to attack, he is a solid value play on the Week 4 slate.
Marlon Mack ($6,100) – Indianapolis Colts
Priced like a time-share back, Marlon Mack quietly continues to dominate opportunities in Indianapolis. Entering Week 3 as a game-time decision, Mack still racked up 16 carries on a 62-percent snap share. So far this season, Mack’s 61 carries rank No.1 and Indianapolis increased his receiving volume in recent weeks. After failing to notch a target in Week 1, Mack saw three targets in each of his last two games. For what its worth, Mack’s 53 routes run remain well-ahead of Hines at 33.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVJONocmv54
Mack also draws a strong matchup against the a weak Oakland Raiders’ defense. After facing the below-average rushing attacks of the Broncos and the Chiefs, Oakland coughed up 110 yards to Dalvin Cook and another 86 to Alexander Mattison and Alex Boone combined. Importantly, Indy retains a top five run rate in the NFL (48-percent). Favored at home by seven points, Indianapolis projects to lean on Mack in this game environment.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900) – Carolina Panthers
A stone cold lock, Saquon Barkley‘s injury old solidifies Christian McCaffrey as the slate’s top play. Leading all running backs in snap share, McCaffrey has handled an absurd 59 carries (No.2) and 21 targets (No.3) to open this year. This equates to a 94.1-percent Opportunity Share in the NFL’s second-fastest offense. Squashing off-season concerns, McCaffrey also continues to dominate red zone work with 12 red zone touches (No.3).
Check out Christian McCaffrey on PlayerProfiler’s Weekly Rankings & Projections:
As for matchup, McCaffrey finds himself up against a struggling Houston Texans’ run defense. Houston’s 5.4 yards per carry allowed ranks 31st in the NFL. Even with Houston favored by four-points, McCaffrey remains invincible to negative game script. Averaging seven targets per game, McCaffrey remains worth paying up for in Week 4.
Sammy Watkins ($6,700) – Kansas City Chiefs
Priced down after a pair of letdown performances, Sammy Watkins presents a calculated GPP pivot in Week 4. Despite the down week, Watkins easily paces the Kansas City Chiefs in targets, averaging 10.7 per game. Watkins also averages 98 air yards per contest, which leads the team. Quietly, his seven deep target rank fifth in the NFL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFe1ZNyzdzY
While Patrick Mahomes renders all Chiefs’ pass catchers matchup proof, Watkins stands out against a banged up Lions’ secondary. Last week, Darius Slay failed to finish the Lions’ game and he remains questionable for Week 4. Even with Slay active, the Lions remain bottom-ten in receiving yards allowed to opposing wide outs.
Christian Kirk ($5,100) – Arizona Cardinals
Somehow managing only 59 receiving yards on 10 catches last week, Christian Kirk remains a value across DFS platforms. With Arizona throwing 73-percent of the time and attempting more pass plays than any other team, Kirk brings an enormous floor. So far, his 32 targets rank third in the NFL and Kirk’s 263 air yards rank only behind Larry Fitzgerald on the Cardinals.
This week, Kirk faces a Seattle Seahawks’ secondary that struggles against the pass. This unit allowed 418 passing yards from Andy Dalton, before facing Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater. Shaquill Griffin and Tre Flowers have allowed QB Ratings when Targeted of 97.4 and 119.6 in their coverage respectively. With Seattle struggling in pass defense and Arizona pumping targets to their slot receivers, Kirk remains a value at $5,100.
Will Fuller ($4,500) – Houston Texans
Severely under-priced, Will Fuller quietly continues to play every snap in the Houston Texans’ offense. Playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins, Fuller has 14 targets to Hopkins’ 15 over the last two weeks. In that span, Fuller actually saw more air yards as well, pacing Hopkins 199-130. Unfortunately, Fuller has yet to receive a touchdown, with Deshaun Watson throwing all three Week 3 scores to tight ends. However, seeing a 22.4-percent target share over the last two weeks, Fuller should see positive regression soon.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtXUmwG69DI
This week, the Texans face off against the Carolina Panthers. While the Panthers successfully shut down Arizona’s low ADOT passing game, Donte Jackson looks beatable opposite James Bradberry. Bradberry projects to spend most of his time chasing Hopkins, while Jackson covers Fuller. Jackson has allowed a 106.0 QB Rating when Targeted in his coverage this year, creating room for Fuller to produce.
Vernon Davis ($3,400) – Washington Redskins
For those punting the tight end position, look no further than Vernon Davis. With Jordan Reed expected to miss Week 4, Davis should continue to log 74.9-percent of Washington’s snaps. Through three games, Case Keenum targeted Davis 15 times, including twice in the red zone. Davis’ 2.10 Target Separation ranks six among tight ends this season, providing Keenum a reliable target on the field.
Davis also draws a tantalizing matchup against the New York Giants. The Giants allowed six catches and two scores to Cowboys tight ends in Week 1 and then 66 yards to O.J. Howard in Week 3. With consistent target volume and matchup on his side, Davis looks like a strong GPP pivot in Week 4.
