Here we are again, getting ready for an action-packed weekend of football. With it, comes another exciting slate of lock-button plays for fantasy. Before we get to that, let’s reflect on how we did last week. Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Dalvin Cook, Amari Cooper and Tyler Lockett all smashed from last week’s article. Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Larry Fitzgerald and Austin Ekeler turned in solid performances as well. We can even victory lap on hidden gem Tony Pollard who was mentioned in the Zeke section as a sneaky flex play. This week, we present 12 more lock-button players who are primed for success and should be in your Week 4 lineups based on usage, opportunity, matchups, advanced stats and metrics. Let’s assume PPR scoring with four points per passing touchdown.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks
Matchup: Cardinals
Someone check on Brian Schottenheimer, please. It must be killing him to call so many pass plays over the last couple games. With the Seahawks playing in shootouts against the Steelers and Saints, Russell Wilson attempted 85 passes in Weeks 2 and 3. To no one’s surprise, he’s looked good doing it with 706 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions and a 73.5-percent completion rate. He also ran for 73 yards and two scores. Wilson has been incredibly good. He is No. 12 in pass attempts on the season, No. 9 in red zone attempts and sixth in deep ball attempts. He is top-five in completed air yards, No. 1 in money throws and has a 52.6-percent (No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks) deep ball completion rate. With a shootout looming against the Cardinals, it will be another big week for the Seattle passing game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yMZ_ZZPDv8
Arizona has allowed a QB1 performance in each of the first three games. Their offense is first in seconds per play (23.32) and 30th in time of possession (26:24). That means their opponents have the third-highest time of possession rate, which means more snaps and, of course, more fantasy points. Wilson is priced outside the top-five on DraftKings ($6,100) but is fourth in PlayerProfiler’s Week 4 rankings, making him a slam-dunk play.
David Johnson, RB, Cardinals
Matchup: Seahawks
David Johnson is top-five among running backs in both Snap Share and Opportunity Share and seventh in Fantasy Points Per Game. The Cardinals haven’t seen a bad defense yet this season—until now. The Seahawks are bottom-10 in points allowed and have surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. With one of the highest expected point totals on the slate, this one is set up perfectly for a classic smash performance from DJ. At $6,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, he is an easy Week 4 lock-button play.
Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions
Matchup: Chiefs
The Lions finally committed to Kerryon Johnson in Week 3 following C.J. Anderson‘s release. Johnson saw his snap share rise from 57-percent and 54-percent in Weeks 1 and 2, to 75-percent. He carried the ball a career-high 20 times. The efficiency was poor, but the usage is what we are chasing. Kansas City’s defense has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns through the first three weeks, including a 103-yard, three touchdown performance by Mark Ingram last week.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZGnR5DA4qc
Johnson’s targets should go up in this one too. In his final four games before suffering a season-ending injury in 2018, he averaged over five targets per game. There’s a good chance he tops that this week, with the Lions potentially chasing points against a Chiefs offense that is averaging 33.7 points per game. Johnson is a bargain on both DFS platforms this week. FanDuel has him priced at $6,500 as the 13th ranked RB on the main slate. He is a complete steal as the RB16 at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
Matchup: Cardinals
Tyler Lockett has been dominant since his disappointing Week 1. He set career highs in targets (12) and receptions (10) in Week 2 against the Steelers. In Week 3, he set new highs with 14 targets and 11 receptions (for 154 yards and one TD). That’s the second most targets over the last two weeks with an 80.8-percent Catch Rate. For the season, Lockett is top-10 in targets, receiving yards and target distance. He is top-five in deep targets, completed air yards and receptions.
Check out Tyler Lockett on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
Lockett draws a juicy Week 4 matchup with the Cardinals, who have allowed the second most passing touchdowns (nine). They have been the worst team at defending the slot, where he has played on 65.7-percent of his snaps. Yet, somehow he is still only $6,600 on FanDuel and $6,300 on DraftKings. Lock-in Lockett as a WR1.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
Matchup: Buccaneers
What ACL injury? Cooper Kupp has looked healthy and as good as ever in his return from knee surgery. He caught 11-of-12 targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. Kupp leads the Rams with a 29.8-percent Target Share and is top-five in the NFL in receptions and yards after the catch. He has seen at least nine targets in all three games. The Rams are at home this week against a Buccaneers defense that just surrendered a 100-yard game to Sterling Shepard. They have allowed four wide receivers to score 11 or more PPR points over the last two weeks. Kupp will draw primary coverage from slot cornerback M.J. Stewart, who ranks No.112 in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings. Considering the matchup, Kupp is modestly priced at $7,000 on FanDuel and $6,500 on DraftKings. Lock him in as a WR1 this week.
Evan Engram, TE, Giants
Matchup: Washington
Last week’s quarterback change from Eli Manning to Daniel Jones has unlocked the Giants offense. Before then, Evan Engram was the only startable player in the offense for fantasy purposes. Now, his ceiling is even greater. With Jones under center in Week 3, he caught six passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJC7WwTCOrw
Engram is tied with Zach Ertz for most targets (30) among tight ends and is No.1 in Fantasy Points Per Game. There will be even more targets to go around with Saquon Barkley out. The Washington and Giants defenses are bad, so there will plenty of points flying around–in both reality and in fantasy. Engram is priced $1,500 under Travis Kelce on DraftKings and $800 below at FanDuel. No tight end has a higher ceiling or floor in Week 4.
Other Locks:
Daniel Jones, QB, Giants vs Washington: Week 4’s ultimate Konami Code QB is priced at $7,300 on FanDuel and $5,300 on DraftKings.
Marlon Mack, RB, Colts vs Raiders: Mack leads the NFL in rush attempts and will continue to eat against a poor Raiders defense.
Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks at Cardinals: A big day is in store for Carson if he can avoid the fumbling issues that have plagued him. A smash play if Rashaad Penny sits.
Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions vs Chiefs: A shootout at home sets up a nice day for Golladay.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington at Giants: He passed the test with another impressive performance against a tough Bears defense. Now he faces a Giants secondary that has surrendered 56.4 PPR points per game to wide receivers.
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Lions vs Chiefs: This is the week to pivot back to T.J. Hockenson if you’re looking for a cheap DFS play. The Chiefs have allowed the most receptions and the fifth most PPR points per game (allowed the most in 2018) to TEs.
