With the NFL Draft underway in less than a week, dynasty leagues are becoming a hotbed for trades. This is the best time of the year. The easiest way to mine value in dynasty leagues is by cross-referencing FFPC dynasty ADP data with PlayerProfiler’s rankings and finding the players the public is too high or low on. In the second edition of my Buy and Sell series, we identify trade candidates using advanced stats and metrics.
Buys
Allen Robinson – Chicago Bears
From Christian Hackenberg to Blake Bortles to Mitchell Trubisky, Allen Robinson has made a living out of producing in spite of bad quarterback play, with two WR1 seasons in his six-year career. His 2018 season can be discounted with wide receivers needing a season to get acclimated in a new offense. He logged a 58.3-percent (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Contested Catch Rate in 2019, making him less susceptible to Trubisky’s bad throws and poor IQ. In fact, Robinson’s 6.83 (No. 68) Target Accuracy made his contested catch ability his shield from bad quarterback play. The Bears offense ranked No. 25 in DVOA last year, yet Robinson finished with 15.9 (No. 9) Fantasy Points Per Game. This is his floor in the Chicago offense going forward, considering that any combination of Trubisky and Nick Foles can’t be much worse.
Allen Robinson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Robinson established himself as an alpha in the league last season. He posted a 27.0-percent (No. 5) Target Share and, competing for targets with Anthony Miller and Tarik Cohen, is a lock to see that kind of volume going forward. Robinson is also among the league’s most consistent receivers on a week-to-week basis. In 2019, he earned a Start Percentage of 62.5-percent, good enough for No. 3 behind DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas. An underappreciated aspect in dynasty is week-to-week consistency. Robinson won’t leave zeros in his points column, propelling his value as a fantasy asset.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1qBuIm3Rrs
Verdict: Robinson ranks No. 10 in Playerprofiler’s dynasty rankings, yet is picked as the WR18 in FFPC dynasty startups. He’s quarterback proof and has proved that his floor is Top 12 fantasy option. Trade for him at a WR2 price to get a reliable WR1.
Derrius Guice – Washington
Derrius Guice is the most polarizing running back in dynasty. In his first two seasons in the league, he has only touched the ball 49 times. The concerns with him are not talent-related, but injury-related. In two seasons, Guice has suffered a sprained MCL, torn ACL, and torn meniscus. This “injury prone” label is new. He played in most of his games at LSU, missing only limited time due to a nagging left knee strain in his junior season. His injury prone label is being overstated in fantasy circles. He has been unlucky and should play a majority of the next season given his injury projections. With training camp scheduled to be virtual in 2020, he will have an extended period to heal with no contact.
Derrius Guice Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Guice is still a special talent at only 22 years old. With second round draft capital and a 110.2 (91st-percentile) Speed Score, he is most comparable to Ezekiel Elliott. Between the tackles, Guice is a Nick Chubb-level talent, we just haven’t seen it yet. Even 14 games of Guice would be a spectacle, even if Washington’s offense underperforms in 2020. Guice has been exposed to anemic offenses in the past. At LSU, he experienced stacked boxes on 73-percent of his rushes. He produced 5.88 Yards Created per Attempt, good enough for No. 2 among his 2018 classmates. He’s an uber-talented running back with a bright future ahead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cczRLK2zMQ4
Verdict: Guice has the chance to be this year’s Dalvin Cook. If he can stay relatively healthy, he will skyrocket across all dynasty rankings. Playerprofiler continues to stay ahead of the curve, ranking him as a Top 20 dynasty running back. Being picked at RB30 in FFPC drafts, he’s a must-buy as owners begin to sour on him.
Sells
DeAndre Hopkins – Arizona Cardinals
Bill O’Brien shocked the fantasy world again on March 16th, trading away DeAndre Hopkins and a fourth-round pick for David Johnson and a second rounder. Since 2007, 60.96-percent of pass catchers on new teams experience fewer targets in their first season under a new system. After drawing 150 (No. 5) targets last season, Hopkins is due for regression. His supporting cast is much stronger in Arizona with Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Kenyan Drake, and Andy Isabella competing for targets. Hopkins posted a 30.9-percent Target Share last season competing with Duke Johnson and an injury-plagued Will Fuller. Clearly, he’ll compete in a stronger receiving room and will see a decrease in targets as Arizona maintains most of their target leaders from 2020. In addition to these concerns, Hopkins will struggle to establish a rapport with Kyler Murray with training camp set to be virtual in 2020.
DeAndre Hopkins Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
At age 28, the 2020 season is a massive chunk of Hopkins’ Lifetime Value. After the Age Apex of 26, receivers tend to see a downturn in fantasy production. With only a few years of serviceable production left, a down year in 2020 hurts his dynasty outlook as a win-now type asset. By the time he’s acclimated in his new offense, he will be approaching his 30s, causing serious concern for any dynasty owner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_4yo828UTk
Verdict: With a disappointing 2020 season ahead, Hopkins owners should jump ship before his value begins to fall. He’s on the wrong side of the Age Apex and can still be moved for a treasure chest of value. Despite his change of scenery, he’s still going as the WR2 in startup drafts. With Hopkins at WR8 (and falling) in PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings, he is an easy sell candidate.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans
Last year, Derrick Henry finally got the opportunity he deserved and produced at an elite level. He led the league in rushing with 1,539 yards, averaging 19.6 (No. 4) Fantasy Points Per Game. Along with this stellar production in the regular season, Henry was a league winner down the stretch. He carried a full head of steam into the playoffs, averaging 148 yards per game in the postseason as he single-handedly steamrolled the Ravens and Patriots. With the image of Henry manhandling elite defenses burned in everyone’s mind, he’s an easy sell in dynasty leagues. His value can’t get any higher after last year.
Derrick Henry Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Despite his monstrous 2019, Henry is a risky long term asset due to his age. The running back Age Apex is around age 25. After this mark, production tends to fall off a cliff. Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and Melvin Gordon provide a window into Henry’s future as a dynasty asset. Since his value can only tumble from here, he’s a sell candidate. His long term outlook is especially concerning considering that the Titans have been hesitant to extend him. He’s operating under the tag as the team may be looking to replace him in the near future. Even if it doesn’t happen right away, they may select a back with more receiving capabilities in the draft. Henry was the RB4 in Fantasy Points Per Game despite only netting 25 (No. 49) targets in 2019. An aging workhorse back with no receiving capabilities is a concerning asset.
Check out Derrick Henry on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Dynasty Rankings and Projections:
Verdict: If Henry switches teams in 2021, he’ll be viewed in a similar light as Gordon is currently on the Broncos. In FFPC dynasty drafts, Gordon has fallen all the way to the RB21. In April of 2019, he was coming off the board at the RB6 spot. Henry is being drafted as the RB12 currently, but it’s easy to see a scenario where he’s going much later in startups one year from now. Sharp dynasty players must read the tea leaves and sell him before it’s too late.
