Best Ball drafts are all the rave in today’s fantasy football landscape. Late-round receivers present great value compared to other positions. PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats and metrics provide us four more late-round options with high upside.
Sterling Shepard
Sterling Shepard is the target leader for the New York Giants. His FFPC ADP of 135.08 makes him a better value than Darius Slayton at 127.15. Shepard’s floor is also higher than aging veteran Golden Tate (ADP: 166.94). The Giants offense is loaded with weapons, but target distributions in recent years have shown that Shepard is the de facto No. 1.
New York Giants Target Shares 2019
Shepard led the team in Target Share, Snap Share, Receptions, and True Catch Rate. His floor far exceeds other options near his ADP despite his limited touchdown upside. The case for Shepard is clear and he makes a great fourth or fifth receiver available in double-digit rounds.
DeSean Jackson
DeSean Jackson has the highest ceiling among all players drafted outside the top 100 and it is not close. His floor is zero and its unlikely he plays a full season but, at an ADP of 148.11, he is an easy bench stash. Jackson can be the WR1 any given week, and three to five monster weeks is all that’s needed to validate the pick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0CV5ur5UIc
In his singular game last season, Jackson drew 10 targets, posting eight receptions for 154 yards and two touchdowns, scoring 35.4 fantasy points. Jackson’s 42 career catches of 50-plus yards are the most by any player in the history of the NFL. He is recovered from his 2019 core muscle injury, and is the clear No. 1 deep threat for a highly talented Carson Wentz.
Randall Cobb
With an ADP of 206.98, Randall Cobb is nearly an afterthought in Best Ball drafts. His ADP is a clear error in 2020, and I am leaving every draft I can with him. The Texans gave him a considerable amount of money given his age, and his competition for short targets is non-existent. There is no tight end of consequence on Houston’s roster and Deshaun Watson has a tendency to prolong plays rather than simply dump off to the RBs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aRr_iuri8I
Cobb’s 2019 receiving line (55-828-3 on 83 targets) proves he can still perform at an admirable level. His 15.1 (No 22 among qualified wide receivers) Yards per Reception and 10.0 (No 9) Yards per Target further prove that he can earn targets and produce fantasy numbers. Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller play similar deep threat roles and both have significant injury histories. The Texans have a porous defense and will need to throw to be competitive. Etch Cobb’s name in with pen as your WR7/8 in Best Ball drafts.
Curtis Samuel
Curtis Samuel (ADP: 159.72) is a high-end WR2 with a versatile skillset. Samuel proved himself to be a short-yardage savant and a reliable deep threat. His 1,542 (No. 11) yards of Total Target Distance and seven (No. 13) touchdowns in 2019 paint the picture of a high-ceiling player.
Check out Curtis Samuel’s 2020 Projection on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
The Panthers threw the second-most passes last season and have upgraded at QB while downgrading in general on defense. More passes are coming and there is plenty of meat on the bone behind D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey. Samuel’s only downside in 2019 was quarterback play. He was the victim of a 5.86 Target Accuracy rating, which ranked No. 105 in the league last season. Despite that, he was No. 48 with 10.7 Fantasy Points per Game. He is drafted outside the top 50 receivers and will easily smash his ADP.
Conclusion
It is important to draft high-end receivers in the early rounds, but most Best Ball formats require at least eight to be competitive. The four players in this article are more reliable options than other players in the same range. DeSean Jackson and Curtis Samuel are ceiling plays, whereas Randall Cobb and Sterling Shepard offer high floors in the late rounds.
