This is Everything You Need to Know, Week 13 Edition. In Week 12, we went all in on Keaton Mitchell, pinned Rashid Shaheed as a potential league winner, and reminded the masses of Jalen Guyton‘s fantasy relevance. Without further ado, let’s get right into everything you need to know for NFL Week 13, including the Devin Singletary fantasy takeover in Houston, Geno Smith’s fall from grace and the emergence of Pat Freiermuth in the new Steelers offense.
Devin Singletary Fantasy League Winner
Since Dameon Pierce suffered his ankle injury in Week 8, it’s been the Devin Singletary show in Houston. Singletary exploded for 262 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 52 carries across Weeks 10 and 11. He is averaging 15 fantasy points per game in his stint as the starter. In Pierce’s return to action, Singletary again led the backfield. And he converted six of his seven targets into receptions, generating 54 receiving yards.
#Texans Week 12 RB Usage
Devin Singletary: 81% snaps, 6 carries, 32 routes, 7 targets (72 yards)
– Dameon Pierce: 19% snaps, 5 carries, 4 routes, 1 target (18 yards)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 26, 2023
Singletary has been the definition of consistent across his career, as he works towards finishing yet another season in the top-30 backs in True Yards Per Carry, Juke Rate, and Breakaway Run Rate. The genie is out of the bottle, and we can expect Singletary to lead the Texans backfield from here on out. Facing Denver, New York (Jets), Tennessee, Cleveland, and Tennessee to end the season, he’s geared up for a league-winning playoff run.
Geno Smith Crashing Back Down to Earth
After an electric year in 2022, the shooting star known as Geno Smith has fallen back down to earth. The veteran signal caller now has twice as many games under 10 fantasy points (four) as he does games over 20 fantasy points (two). He’s also only finished inside of the top-15 weekly quarterbacks twice all season.
Smith looks closer to the version we saw playing for the New York Jets years ago. He is not as comfortable in the pocket, missing makeable throws, and struggling to generate offensive production. As we near the fantasy playoffs, it’s important to recognize Smith is a low-end QB2. Don’t continue to chase last season’s production because it’s not coming back.
Samaje Perine: Unsung Hero
Would you believe me if I told you that Samaje Perine is No. 4 among running backs in total receiving yards on the season? Well you should, because it’s true. The veteran back has been the definition of reliable for the Broncos this season, on the ground and through the air. On the season, he ranks No. 23 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 1 in Yards Per Touch, No. 2 in Yards Per Route Run, No. 1 in Yards Created Per Touch, and No. 13 in Expected Points Added.
Despite high ranks in those metrics, lower touch volumes and a short stint of Jaleel Mclaughlin have watered down Perine’s fantasy value. Since Denver’s Bye, however, Perine has gotten back into the 30- to 40-percent Snap Share range. He has reclaimed his RB2 role in Denver. He’s cleared 13 fantasy points in each of the last two games, and presents RB3/flex value throughout the fantasy playoffs. Pick up Perine now – if he’s available – before Sunday’s shootout with Houston.
Pat Freiermuth Unlocked
The human dumpster fire known as Matt Canada was relieved of his duties prior to Week 12’s slate, and it seems no one is happier about the change than Pat Freiermuth. In Pittsburgh’s first game without Canada calling the plays, ‘Muth led the team with 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 120 receiving yards.
Last season, Freiermuth earned six or more targets in 10 of 16 games, and cleared 75 receiving yards five times. It looks like the new Steelers offense is going to feature the third-year tight end similarly to years past, making him a weekly starter the rest of the way.
Implied Team Totals
Highest Implied Team Totals
- Miami Dolphins (29.75)
- Houston Texans (25.25)
- San Francisco 49ers (25.25)
- Detroit Lions (25)
- Kansas City Chiefs (24)
The matchup between the Eagles and the 49ers is surely going to be this week’s DFS chalk game of the week. These two high-powered offenses will be highly sought after in a high scoring matchup (2nd highest game total on the Sunday slate). We should be getting exposure to these teams.
Another game stack we’ll want exposure to falls in the matchup between the Broncos and the Texans. Those two offenses have been rolling lately, and each defense has given up their fair share of points to opposing offenses.
My pick for the contrarian shootout of the week lies in the matchup between the Colts and the Titans. The Colts are getting a little too much credit for limiting bad offenses in recent weeks. They have allowed at least 29 points in four of their five October matchups, with an average 58 total points scored in those games. The Colts face a QB in Will Levis, who will challenge their secondary, and I expect this game to see 50 points.
Lowest Implied Team Totals
- New York Jets (15.75)
- Carolina Panthers (15.75)
- New England Patriots (17.25)
- Cleveland Browns (18)
- Atlanta Falcons (18.25)
Barring a few individual players (Breece Hall, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Bijan Robinson to name a few), we should be heavily fading the teams on this list. Now three-quarters through the season, there’s virtually no ‘mis-reading’ of these teams. These are bad squads who will struggle to produce.
The low-total game I can see surprising everyone this week is the Cardinals versus the Steelers. The Cardinals have cleared the 41.5 point game total in three of their last five games, allowing an average of 28 points to opponents. If the Cardinals can pick up their offense, this game could shoot out.
DFS Values: Russell Wilson ($5700), Rachaad White ($6300), Samaje Perine ($4800), Courtland Sutton ($5400), DeAndre Hopkins ($6100), Demario Douglas ($4300), David Njoku ($4100)
Injury Report
De’Von Achane
De’Von Achane has not returned to practice yet this week, nursing the knee injury he re-aggravated in his return. The team is likely to be cautious with his second return, with a playoff run on the horizon. Whenever the Dolphins deem him ready to play, he can return to lineups.
Treylon Burks
Treylon Burks finally returned to practice Wednesday, indicating he’s working his way out of the NFL’s concussion protocol. Head coach Mike Vrabel seems hopeful Burks will suit up on Sunday. With his performance in recent appearances, Burks is likely going to stay on benches regardless.
Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor underwent surgery to repair the injury to his thumb. His current timeline is a three-week absence, and he will definitely be out this week. Zack Moss looks to return to his pre-Taylor excellence.
Rashid Shaheed
Rashid Shaheed is listed as day-to-day with the thigh injury he suffered in Week 12. It’s looking as if he’ll suit up on Sunday. If he continues to practice and is activated for Sunday’s slate, he becomes a flex play with upside.
Aaron Rodgers
The return-to-play window has been opened for Aaron Rodgers. I’m going to take this opportunity to call my shot and say that Rodgers is still not going to return this season, unless the Jets have a clear path to the playoffs by Week 16. Even still, Rodgers’ recovery has been quicker than anyone has ever seen. The re-injury risk for the 39-year-old QB is probably high.
Michael Wilson
Michael Wilson is still not practicing due to his shoulder injury. He’s now missed multiple games. Without a practice appearance this week, it looks as if he’s going to be sidelined again. If he returns to practice later in the week and is activated, he becomes a WR3/flex option.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones has yet to practice this week, recovering from his knee injury. Jones has struggled this season. If activated, will be an RB2 at minimum given his involvement in the passing game.
On to Week 13
Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE in fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!
