It’s time to deliver my Week 3 NFL DFS Picks! But before I jump right into that, have you checked out the PlayerProfiler DFS Dominator and Fantasy Tools? There are options for every budget and every fantasy football use case, from sports betting to creating and maintaining the most optimized league roster. I’ve been working from the GPP Lineup Genius quite a bit today, so let’s check out my handiwork!
Week 3 NFL DFS Picks
QB Picks
Dak Prescott ($6.6K DraftKings / $7.6K FanDuel)
Dak Prescott looks like an extreme value this week with a very manageable salary and a ridiculously low rostership projection of just 2-percent. DraftKings and FanDuel are likely being conservative this week on salary because of the strong showing of the Cardinals defense so far this season. DFS Managers might be wondering if the gamble is worth it and are turning to other options. I’ll bite. Cooks and Pollard are both expected to play, so we’re sure to see some decent scoring in this match-up. Prescott is projected for 18.5 FPPG this week.
Lamar Jackson ($7.7K DraftKings / $8.2K FanDuel)
Justin Herbert ($7.5K DraftKings / $8.4K FanDuel)
If you’re willing to pay up a bit, go with Lamar Jackson. You might be leaning toward Justin Herbert, and that’s not a bad choice depending on your style of play and your goals. Both of these quarterbacks are facing poorly ranked defenses.
The Colts defense happens to be just a little worse, especially against the QB position, giving Jackson the edge. Both are expected to score more than 20 FFPG this week, but Jackson has the edge: 21.8 to Herbert’s 20.9. Here’s the biggest difference for me – rostership. Jackson is hovering around a 6-percent projected rostership, while Herbert is at 11-percent.
WR Picks
CeeDee Lamb ($7.7K DraftKings / $8.5K FanDuel)
Keenan Allen ($7.6K DraftKings / $8.8K FanDuel)
If you’re looking to make a stack in your Week 3 NFL DFS picks, either Ceedee Lamb or Keenan Allen will pay off. They’re quite similar in salary and points projections. Lamb’s rostership is quite a bit lower at 12-percent to Allen’s 16-percent. This is likely due to the Cardinals putting up pretty great defensive numbers. Points-wise, they are again very similar, with Lamb projected for 17.8 FPPG and Allen projected for 16.8 FPPG this week. Either of these stacks will likely work out great for cash games because of their consistency, but for GPP tournaments I’m looking at a less explosive, yet still productive pick. Who might that be?
Zay Flowers ($5.4K DraftKings / $6.3K FanDuel)
We’ve already discussed how poor the Colts defense ranks, and they rank even worse against wide receivers, at No. 31 in the league. Zay Flowers‘ salary has gotten a bit higher this week because he’s showing us what he’s capable of, but it seems that DFS managers still aren’t sold. His rostership is sitting at just 1-percent.
That is wild to me! I’m staking Flowers with Jackson all day long. If I had any hesitation, it would be that Mark Andrews does get the majority of targets, but I think we’ll still see Flowers hit or surpass his projection of 12.9 FPPG. Flowers is one of my must-play options in this week’s Week 3 NFL DFS picks.
RB Picks
Javonte Williams ($5.5K DraftKings / $6.1K FanDuel)
It makes zero sense to me why 20-percent of DFS managers are playing James Conner this week, when they could be playing Javonte Williams. Conner will be facing the toughest defense in the league, with a backup quarterback providing him targets. Williams, on the other hand, will be facing a Miami defense that ranks No. 30 in stopping the run game. Williams is a good choice for both cash games and GPP with his rostership sitting at 8-percent and his consistent play.
Travis Etienne Jr ($6.9K DraftKings / $8.0K FanDuel)
With a manageable salary and just a 4-percent rostership projection, I really like Travis Etienne this week for DFS. While I’m not in love with Jacksonville’s overall prospects against Houston, I do like the points allowed to running backs data. Houston ranks No. 27 in that metric, giving support to the 15.37 points projection for Etienne this week.
Jerick McKinnon ($5.4K DraftKings / $6.3K FanDuel)
Jerick McKinnon will be going up against a Chicago defense that ranks No. 31 in stopping running backs. I’m sharing this one with you as a value pick as you build out your Week 3 NFL DFS picks into lineups. McKinnon will only be rostered in 1-percent of DFS lineups and his salary comes in quite low. What I like is the upside. He’s projected to bring in 7.26 points, far more than his peers in the same tier.
TE Picks
Evan Engram ($4.8K DraftKings / $5.9K FanDuel)
Evan Engram brings a consistency in his play that’s very appealing. He’s played in roughly 75-percent of the snaps and received an average of 6.5 targets week over week. This week, Engram is projected to bring 10.8 FPPG, which falls in line with the pattern we’ve seen so far.
Sam LaPorta ($4K DraftKings / $6.1K FanDuel)
Can’t stop, won’t stop (until it doesn’t make sense to keep going). Give me Sam LaPorta again this week. He’s proven to be a staple of the Detroit offense and I don’t see that coming to an end anytime soon. At just 4-percent rostership, and a very affordable salary, this is still a no-brainer for me to go with again in Week 3.
LaPorta has played roughly 82-percent of the snaps and averaged 5.5 targets per game so far. Apparently, the word of the week is “consistency” and LaPorta’s got that. His scoring has been consistent, projected at 9.3 FPPG this week, which is in line with his week-over-week performance.
DEF/DST Picks
The Buffalo Bills defense is on the radar of quite a few DFS managers this week, and it’s due to a super low salary requirement on DraftKings ($2.9K) and a very nice projection of 8.2 FPPG this week. On FanDuel, it’s not as easy to make the decision to play the Bills, as they are at $4.4K. It might be a better play – depending on your platform and strategy – to play the Miami Dolphins, who are projected at 7.9 FPPG for $3.9K.
On to Week 3
And there you have it! Prefer to listen to my picks? We’ll post a quick recap to YouTube on Friday, plus my Power Prop and favorite Survivor League pick of the week!
Let me know what you think about my Week 3 NFL DFS picks. You can find me on Twitter (or X) @KellyInPhoenix. See you around!
