The Playoffs are finally here! We here at PlayerProfiler are going to preview EVERY game this post-season. This is the preview for the Divisional Round Showdown: Chiefs vs Jaguars! These teams met in Week 10, where the Chiefs won 27-17. This time around, there should be a bit more points and hopefully some more fireworks. Without further ado, let’s take a deeper look at these teams and how I expect this game to go!
How to Watch:
Date: Saturday, January 21
Time: 4:30 EST
Channel: NBC
Stream: Peacock, NBC Sports App
Betting Lines:
Spread: Chiefs -9
Total: 53
Money: Jaguars +333, Chiefs -450
The Chiefs
The Chiefs finished the year 14-3, winning the AFC West and finishing No. 1 overall in the AFC. The offense finished No. 1 in both Points For and Yards. The defense finished No. 16 in Points Allowed and No. 11 in Yards Allowed. They have won five games in a row and 10 out of their last 11. The Chiefs are also the favorite to win the Super Bowl at this point in time.
Injuries to Monitor
There are no Questionable players as the Chiefs have officially ruled out Mecole Hardman with a pelvis injury. Andy Reid has also said that Jody Fortson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will “probably not” be activated off of IR for the game.
Offense
The offense is led by superstar QB Patrick Mahomes. He led the NFL in Passing Yards, Passing TDs, True Passer Rating, QBR, and Expected Points Added. It’s obviously no secret that he’s the best quarterback in the league. Mahomes has essentially carried this entire offense to being one of the best in the league all by himself.
His targets are led by tight end Travis Kelce with other WRs serving as complementary pieces. Kelce in particular led all tight ends in Receptions, Receiving Yards, Yards After Catch, TDs, Points per Game and more. He clearly dominated in all aspects and is the heart and soul of the Chiefs’ receiving room. Mecole Hardman, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson have all stepped up in their own regard. Smith-Schuster had 933 receiving yards and three TDs on the season. The WR to watch is Kadarius Toney who when healthy has been an exciting player.
The running back corps has much improved since Clyde Edwards-Helaire went on IR. Veteran Jerick McKinnon has been lighting the world on fire, and Isiah Pacheco is the perfect slasher RB. Pacheco has nine straight games with at least 80 yards or a TD. The Chiefs are No. 4 in Game Script, and this plays in Pacheco’s favor. If the Chiefs find themselves ahead, Pacheco will likely reach that mark again. McKinnon has scored a TD in six straight games and will no doubt be a big part of their game plan early. He finished the year No. 5 in Receiving Yards (512), No. 9 in Receptions (56), and No. 10 in TDs (10). Just look at his profile, it’s no surprise that he excels.
Jerick McKinnon Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Defense
The defense is led by perhaps the best DT in the league, Chris Jones. He finished the year with 15.5 sacks (tied for No. 4 in the league), two forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery. Their other pass rushers are good too. Rookie George Karlaftis finished with six sacks, and Frank Clark finished with five. The Chiefs as a whole finished No. 2 in the NFL in sacks per game with 3.2. The linebacker corps is more than decent as well with both Willie Gay and Nick Bolton breaking out this season. And the cornerbacks are no slouches either. L’Jarius Sneed finished with three interceptions, and rookie Trent McDuffie ended the year impressively. This defense can be very dangerous.
Prediction: The Chiefs will sack Trevor Lawrence four times.
The Jaguars
The Jaguars finished the year 9-8, winning the AFC South. The offense finished No. 10 in both Points For and Yards. The defense was No. 12 in Points Allowed and No. 24 in Yards Allowed. They are getting hot at the right time having won six straight after pulling off the 3rd largest comeback in NFL History- beating the Chargers 31-30.
Trevor Lawrence Trevor Lawrence
1st Half 2nd Half pic.twitter.com/tz7BH1NenG— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) January 15, 2023
Injuries to Monitor
Jamal Agnew, Trevor Lawrence, and Brandon Scherff are all listed as Questionable. They were listed as Questionable last week also, and all three played. I expect the same thing this week, all 3 players will be playing.
Offense
The offense is led by second-year QB Trevor Lawrence who has enjoyed quite the breakout season. He finished the year top ten in passing yards, Money Throws, pass TDs, Air Yards, pass attempts, accuracy rating, True Passer Rating, and even rush TDs. He has been the heartbeat of this offense as the other Jaguars’ weapons have been good but not great.
The receivers are led by Christian Kirk who finished the year with 1,108 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Zay Jones and Evan Engram have decent roles in this offense too. Jones went for 823 yards and five TDs, and Engram had 766 yards and four touchdowns. Engram in particular was one of the better tight ends this season too. He ranked No. 5 in targets, No. 7 in highest FPPG, No. 3 in catches, No. 4 in receiving yards, and No. 2 in YAC.
Running back Travis Etienne has been the definition of hot or cold. Etienne had eight games over 100 yards and four with less than 60. He also only scored a touchdown in four games this season. However, he did finish the year with 1,125 rush yards (No. 8) and 316 receiving yards (No. 15).
Defense
The defense is led by Foye Oluokun who led the NFL in tackles this season with 184. Oluokun also produced two sacks, two fumble recoveries, and two forced fumbles. Josh Allen leads the team in sacks with six, but that makes him tied for No. 55 in the NFL overall. Four players on this team had three interceptions this year- Tyson Campbell (CB), Andre Cisco (S), Devin Lloyd (LB), and Rayshawn Jenkins (S). Jenkins in particular has been on fire as of late with two game-winning plays over the last few weeks. He had a game-winning pick-six against the Cowboys and a forced fumble that won them the division against the Titans in Week 18. The defense as a whole averages the No. 5 most takeaways per game with 1.6.
Prediction: Trevor Lawrence will throw for four TDs.
How I Think the Game Will Go
Score Prediction: Chiefs 42 Jaguars 31
While the story that the Jaguars are writing right now is exhilarating, it’s got to end at some point. Going into Arrowhead is a tough task for any team even one as hot as the Jaguars. It’s no unique take to say that I expect the Chiefs to get out to an early lead and keep their foot on the gas. Too many things work in their favor, and this game is too big for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to be caught slacking.
Additionally, the Chiefs backfield duo works too perfectly to ice games for the Jaguars to complete another comeback. McKinnon will get his work as the Chiefs work on their lead and then Pacheco will come into ice the game with a few solid runs. Oluokun is great at racking up tackles, but neither he nor Devin Lloyd has the chops to stop Travis Kelce who I expect to have a big game and be relied on heavily. He had 81 receiving yards and a TD in their last meeting.
I don’t want this to come across that the Jaguars will have a bad game either. It’s hard to believe that this team will come out flat after pulling off such a historic feat. They have to be feeling themselves right now which makes any team dangerous. Because of that, I expect a really solid performance from everyone. I think Trevor Lawrence will be the one scoring all the TDs, and I will take the stance that Evan Engram is the leading receiver in this game. Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed are solid corners, and I think it’s fun to think that Engram will be fired up watching Kelce have a good game. The game could be even closer if they can get Travis Etienne going, but personally, I just think the Chiefs will be scoring too fast for the Jaguars to be able to establish the run game.
So overall- I expect the Chiefs to win, but the Jaguars should lose respectfully and feel accomplished enough to feel good about their 2023 chances.
DFS Value Play
Skyy Moore $200
I am not expecting a big game from Skyy Moore, however, it’s hard to avoid him with such a cheap price tag. In the back half of the season, we saw his snap share rise to over 35-percent five times, and he even had three receptions in his last start. However, he missed Week 18 with a lacerated hand which has faded his value. For only $200 in a game with such a high expected total, why not take a jab at him?
Best Prop
Trevor Lawrence OVER 1.5 Pass TDs
The Chiefs finished dead last in Passing TDs Allowed this season. I don’t see why you wouldn’t take this prop with the way he just played. He’s only thrown two or more TDs eight times this year, but he should easily hit that mark with the expected game script against the league-worst team at allowing pass touchdowns. In fact, he had exactly two pass touchdowns when they met earlier this year.
