Are you losing money at fantasy football this year? Fortunately for you, lucky week 13 is upon us and PlayerProfiler and XN Sports outline the best value plays on DraftKings every week of the NFL season.
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The following players are noteworthy value plays who could either serve as the cornerstones of an optimal cash lineup and/or add upside variance to a GPP/tournament roster in week 13.
The Smoker
Jay Cutler, $5,100
Jay Cutler is quietly having a career year at age-32. He always had arm strength. He always had accuracy. But until this year, he always had turnovers. This year, Cutler has only turned the ball over ten times cutting his 2014 turnovers per game rate almost in half. The newfound efficiency is reflected in Cutler’s career-high 92.5 passer rating. Furthermore, in games Alshon Jeffery has played this season, Cutler thrown three total interceptions, and his fantasy point total has not dipped below 14.9.
Alshon Jeffery and Jay Cutler will team up in week 13 to face a San Francisco 49ers defense allowing 276.8 (5th most) and 22.2 (13th most) fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Jay Cutler is the perfect low-floor value play in cash games and a with Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett getting healthier and Zach Miller and Marquess Wilson emerging as playmakers, particularly in the red zone, Cutler offers a high ceiling for tournament play as well.
The Big Johnson
David Johnson, $3,400
The NFL ultra-violence struck the Arizona Cardinals backfield in week 12 sending Chris Johnson to injured reserve and Andre Ellington limping off the field unable to return. The best third string running back in the NFL has been thrust into lead back role.
Johnson will be “the lead guy now,” according to Arians. Sounds optimistic that Andre Ellington may be able to play v @STLouisRams
— Alex Marvez (@alexmarvez) December 2, 2015
• Speed Score: 109.3 (88th-percentile)
• Burst Score: 134.1 (96th-percentile)
• Agility Score: 11.09 (75th-percentile)
• SPARQ-x Score: 134.9 (94th-percentile)
As a true workhorse operating in one of the league’s most efficient offenses, Johnson projects to absorb the majority of high leverage touches (2-minute drill, screens, goal line carries, etc.) in a true workhorse role. The rare big back with elite receiving skills, Johnson’s ceiling is the No. 1 running back in fantasy football for the rest of the season.
David Johnson Advanced Metrics
In week 13, the Cardinals face a St. Louis defense allowing 111.0 (14th most) rushing yards per game and 25.0 (12th most) fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. With St. Louis’ offense averaging 11 points per game over the last three, and the Cardinals a -5.5 road favorite in the contest, David Johnson may enjoy a fourth quarter game flow advantage and could reach 30 total touches. Armed with every conceivable advantage, David Johnson’s ownership percentage may rightfully set a DraftKings record in week 13.
The Kid
DeVante Parker, $3,300
Dolphins starting WR Rishard Matthews suffered numerous broken ribs in week 12 and has already been ruled out for week 13. DeVante Parker, who posted 4 receptions for 80-yards and touchdown in relief of Matthews in week 12, will be Miami’s starting X receiver in week 13.
DeVante Parker said he expects to start at the X with Rishard Matthews hurt. — Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) December 2, 2015
After being selected with the No. 14 pick in the NFL Draft this spring, DeVante Parker missed most of training camp and all of preseason rehabilitating a broken foot. 2015 was thought to be a lost season for Parker who many NFL Draft experts ranked behind only Amari Cooper during the redraft process. At 6-3, 209-pounds, Parker has a truly special playmaker profile most similar to A.J. Green. He is a speed-size phenomenon owning a 109.5 (87th-percentile) Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS) and a resume of production evidenced by his 46.3-percent College Dominator Rating at the University of Louisville.
In week 13, the Dolphins face a Ravens defense that has been shredded by wide receiver of all shapes and sizes around the NFL from A.J. Green himself to Travis Benjamin to Torrey Smith. Baltimore allows 258.6 (9th most) passing yards per game and 42.3 (4th most) fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. The Ravens are particularly vulnerable to the deep ball. The following receivers scored long touchdowns against the Ravens in 2015:
• A.J. Green (80 yards)
• Torrey Smith (76 yards)
• Malcom Floyd (70 yards)
• Amari Cooper (68 yards)
• Travis Benjamin (42 yards)
• Lance Kendricks (30 yards)
• Michael Crabtree (29 yards)
• Quinton Patton (21 yards)
Particularly susceptible to the long touchdown, DeVante Parker’s chances of scoring a touchdown this week are better than any other receiver in his DraftKings salary tier.
One Big Dude
Vance McDonald, $3,000
Big, athletic tight ends often take many years to develop into fantasy-relevant contributors. Vance McDonald possessed an 89th-percentile Athleticism Score on PlayerProfiler.com and has 10 receptions on 11 targets (90.1-percent catch rate) and two touchdowns over the last two games since Vernon Davis was traded. McDonald has been Gabbert’s third favorite target behind only Anquan Boldin and Shaun Draughn since David was traded.
Vance McDonald Advanced Metrics
Facing a Bears defense that allows 10.6 (26th most) fantasy points per game to tight ends, even the most hardcore DFS grinders will struggle to justify playing Vance McDonald. A high target share combined with a low DraftKings ownership percentage and salary make McDonald an intriguing GPP flier in week 13.
May the game flow be ever in your favor.
