This is Everything You Need to Know, Week 15 Edition. In Week 14, we predicted Austin Ekeler’s return to excellence, called our shot on the legitimacy of Parker Washington, certified Chase Brown as a must-stash, and faded Vegas’s prediction of a low-scoring game from the Rams. Without further ado, let’s get right into Everything You Need to Know for NFL Week 15, including the impending late-season fantasy resurgences of Drake London and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a potential league-winner in Zay Jones, and a surprising rest-of-season RB1.
Drake London Calling
Drake London is still a polarizing fantasy asset, but that is exactly why he still has a rabid fan base. When the Falcons pass for over 225 yards, London averages 7.4 receptions, 99 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns (19.7 fantasy points per game).
Drake London went off for 172 receiving yards in Week 14. His 2.3% drop rate is one of the NFL’s best since 2022. An amazing talent that sadly isn’t used enough. pic.twitter.com/rwoWA5GNHQ
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) December 11, 2023
While Desmond Ridder has only cleared the 255-yard mark passing in five games this season, he averages 224 passing yards when throwing at least 25 times, clearing the target line in five of eight games. The Falcons line up against the Panthers this weekend. While the Panthers generally limit passing attacks, that’s mostly driven by positive opposing Game Scripts.
The Falcons close the fantasy playoffs by facing three lackluster defenses in Carolina, Indianapolis, and Chicago. This provides London with an opportunity to end his sophomore season with a bang.
Forgot About Zay (Jones)
With Christian Kirk now out for an extended period, the target tree in Jacksonville has become hyper-consolidated. Last week, the distribution was Calvin Ridley 13 targets, Zay Jones 14, and Evan Engram 12. With the prowess of the Jaguars passing offense, Jones has weekly WR3 status with low-end WR1 upside.
The Jags face the Ravens, Buccaneers, and Panthers in the fantasy playoffs. Those are three beatable defenses. While Jones has struggled to connect with Trevor Lawrence, the two have ample opportunity to get on the same page. Jones is a spike-week player who will propel teams to fantasy championships.
Ezekiel Elliott Rest-of-Season RB1
Despite odds heavily stacked against him, Ezekiel Elliott finished as THE RB1 in Week 14. He had 22 carries and eight targets against the Steelers in the absence of Rhamondre Stevenson. The workload between the two Patriots backs has now been consolidated around Elliott only and he is a top-12 back as long as Stevenson remains sidelined.
We know the Target Share will remain steady. Elliott has earned 13 targets over the past two weeks. And the playoff schedule is salivating. The Pats get Kansas City, Denver, and Buffalo to end the fantasy season. Elliott is not on waivers anymore, but needs to be in your starting lineup if he’s on your bench.
JSN Playoff Redemption
Don’t look now, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba now has 18 targets over the past two games. That leads Seahawks pass catchers. The usage has not exactly turned into desirable production, with JSN scoring 19 total fantasy points in that span. However, the Seahawks faced two stellar defenses: San Francisco and Dallas.
The Seahawks have Philly, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh to close out the season, giving JSN a golden opportunity to redeem his rookie season when it matters the most— the fantasy playoffs.
Isaiah Spiller Stash Play
Chargers soon-to-be ex-head coach Brandon Staley stated last week he wanted to ride the “hot hand’ at running back going forward, citing alleged struggles from Austin Ekeler in the run game. While we thought this meant an increased workload for Joshua Kelley, it was Isaiah Spiller who took the bulk of the RB2 touches last week.
Spiller, who received six carries Sunday, continues to struggle with rushing efficiency. However, it looks like he is the player to stash in this backfield. With Ekeler still battling an ankle injury, it’s worth stashing Spiller in deep leagues to see if he makes more of an appearance during the fantasy playoffs
Implied Team Totals (Sunday Main Slate)
Highest Implied Team Totals
- San Francisco 49ers (30)
- Los Angeles Rams (28.5)
- Buffalo Bills (26)
- Dallas Cowboys (24.5)
- Miami Dolphins (23)
For the first time this season, we have two teams in the same game on the Top-5 Implied Team Totals list, which means the Bills/Cowboys game-stacks are going to be the chalky plays of the week. Still, with a 50.5-point game total, we’ll need to have exposure to high-octane players like Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott.
Despite wielding the 2nd highest team total, you can back the Rams at solid price-points this week. Considering the game environment, this Rams/Commanders matchup is one of my favorites on the slate to attack. Neither defense has been able to slow down opposing offenses, with the Rams giving up 20-plus points in seven of 13 games and the Commanders allowing 30-plus points in nine of 13 games this season.
Coming in with a 42.5-point game total, my contrarian shootout pick of the week lies in the Ravens/Jaguars matchup. Dealing with an ankle injury, Trevor Lawrence led the Jags to 27 points against a stout Browns defense. Jacksonville has scored 24 points in seven of their last nine games. The Ravens high-octane defense has struggled recently against high-tempo passing attacks, allowing 30-plus points to the Browns and Rams within the last four weeks.
Lowest Implied Team Totals
- New England Patriots (14.25)
- New York Jets (14.5)
- Carolina Panthers (15.5)
- New York Giants (16.75)
- Houston Texans (17.5)
- Chicago Bears (17.5)
As you know, we’re mostly looking to fade players on this Low Team Totals list. However, every now and then, there are players worth leaning into for the sake of creating unique lineups. Breece Hall gets a juicy matchup against Miami, and the Jets offense looked good enough last week for him to sustain RB1 production.
The Saints have been getting thrashed by opposing RBs lately, allowing spike weeks even when the opposing offense doesn’t light up the scoreboard. The matchup and his recent production alongside Tommy DeVito makes Saquon Barkley a worthwhile option in DFS lineups.
Finally, if CJ Stroud returns from concussion protocol, Dalton Schultz and Nico Collins (if healthy) become usable options. While the implied total suggests Stroud won’t suit up, the DFS prices won’t change and thus a potential value is present if the injury situations swing in our favor. It’s easy to pivot away if Stroud is out.
DFS Values: Matthew Stafford ($6000), Breece Hall ($6400), James Cook ($6300), DeAndre Hopkins ($6200), Rashee Rice ($6100), Curtis Samuel ($4600), Trey McBride ($5200)
Injury Report
CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud is currently in concussion protocol. While this typically means he’ll miss his next game, we’ve recently seen some players exit the protocol during the week and play in their next game. All we can do is continue to monitor the situation.
Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan Taylor did not suit up for practice Wednesday. Given what we’ve heard from the Colts’ coaching staff recently, it doesn’t sound like Taylor will suit up this week. If he appears at practice, that outlook would quickly change.
Rashid Shaheed
Rashid Shaheed practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, increasing his chances to play this week. He had failed to practice up to this point, so the Saints may opt to take a more cautious route with their second-year receiver.
Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. Given his veteran status, any Wednesday appearance is a good sign for his availability. As long as he doesn’t have a setback, he should be available to play this week.
Christian Watson
Christian Watson did not participate in practice Wednesday. With Watson’s injuries this season, he’s generally missed the games where he didn’t open the week with at least a limited session. We’ll have to track reports closely, as a hamstring injury is one that can hinder a receiver’s performance, if he is active.
Derek Carr
Derek Carr (multiple boo-boo’s) has yet to practice again this week. This guy refuses to sit. I’m not sure if it’s because he knows Jameis is better, or what, but at this point, it’s getting ridiculous.
You’d think, with a shoulder and multiple rib injuries, that Carr won’t be playing this week. However, we’ve been down this road before. Even if active, you’re not starting Carr unless you have to.
Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz booked a limited session on Wednesday, looking to return from his hamstring injury. The Texans have taken their time with Schultz, and an appearance on Wednesday is a good start for him to eventually be active this week. If the trend continues, he’ll be activated. He’s a start regardless of Stroud’s status.
Nico Collins
Nico Collins was a non-participant in practice Wednesday, but was moving around on the sideline. He’s stated he wants to play this week. Monitor the situation closely.
On to Week 15
Week over week, we’ve been paying attention to the right details and will continue to refine our process as we learn lessons from our losses. By continuing to attack the right matchups and following the right usage and efficiency trends, we’ll continue to DOMINATE in fantasy matchups and DFS lineups. Happy hunting!
