Somehow, Drew Brees failed against the Atlanta Falcons. Against a Falcons team missing Desmond Trufant. Nonetheless, the advanced metrics on PlayerProfiler can help us understand whether this is a one-time performance or a red alert situation. Utilize these metrics, along with our Week 10 Waiver Wire Targets, to gain the edge and gain those first-round byes in the playoffs.
Quarterback
Drew Brees (11.5 points, QB20)
He was back, healthy and playing against the Atlanta Falcons weak secondary. However, even though Drew Brees also threw the ball 45 times, he only led his team to three field goals.
Uncharacteristically, the Falcons sacked Brees six times and held him to 287 scoreless yards. It is good to note that he still managed almost 300 yards, a 71.1-percent completion percentage and zero interceptions in his poor game.
https://youtu.be/-H9YZmjKvqk
In four games played in 2019, these four metrics show that Brees still has it and can be trusted:
- Accuracy Rating (79.1) (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks)
- True Completion Percentage (80.8-percent) (No. 1)
- Pressured Completion Percentage (48.4-percent) (No. 2)
- Clean Pocket Completion Percentage (81.9-percent) (No. 2)
Jimmy Garoppolo (8.0 points, QB24)
In addition to suffering his first loss of the season, Jimmy Garoppolo failed the fantasy community as well. Jadeveon Clowney consistently pressured him and the Seattle Seahawks forced him into three turnovers.
Check out Jimmy Garoppolo on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
On a bright note, Garoppolo passed for a season-high 46 attempts. However, he only completed 52.2-percent of passes for 248 yards.
Luckily, he faces the Arizona Cardinals in Weeks 11 and 15. Based off the middling metrics on his player page and his 30-8 Danger Play-to-Money Throw ratio, we can’t trust him otherwise.
Wide Receiver
Zach Pascal (4.6 points, WR62)
While his 98.5-percent Snap Share and seven targets were nice, Zach Pascal didn’t do much with them in Week 10. Without T.Y. Hilton and against the porous Miami defense, he caught only two of his seven targets for 26 yards.
Pascal has earned a near-perfect Snap Share in three of his last four games, joining the top-12 fantasy wide receivers in two of those outings.
Yes his floor is low, especially with Jacoby Brissett out, but Pascal’s rest-of-season schedule and advanced metrics make him an add/buy:
- Production Premium (+28.8) (No. 6)
- Target Premium (+33.4-percent) (No. 8)
- Quarterback Rating when Targeted (110.8) (No. 24)
- Fantasy Points Per Target (2.38) (No. 6)
Stefon Diggs (7.9 points, WR43)
Two weeks in a row! Even without Adam Thielen in the lineup, Stefon Diggs failed to produce again.
Unfortunately for Diggs, Dalvin Cook ate up seven targets and Kyle Rudolph vultured two touchdowns. More than that, his 12.1 (No. 8) Weekly Volatility is becoming a nuisance.
https://youtu.be/CrNoz3qSrBI
Diggs’ matchup against Byron Jones, PlayerProfiler’s 13th-best cornerback with a +47.5 (No. 4) Coverage Rating, was bad. Next week he faces Denver, and then has a Week 12 bye.
Without Thielen, Diggs isn’t coming through in difficult matchups. Be wary.
Mike Evans (12.2 points, WR29) and Chris Godwin (13.4 points, WR25)
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin had a mouth-watering Week 10 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Evans ranks second in Fantasy Points Per Game among wide receivers and Godwin ranks third, yet neither were top-24 wide receivers in this contest.
We’ve been blessed with their dominance this year, so a day where they produce any numbers less than the best is a disappointment.
Nonetheless, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rank third in team pass plays per game. Continue to trust the consolidated target tree in Tampa.
Running Back
Jaylen Samuels (7.0 points, RB32)
On basically every DFS podcast or article, Jaylen Samuels was the “free-square” running back of the week. With James Conner out, he would see increased rushing opportunities and plenty of targets.
Samuels did receive 14 carries and seven targets, but he only gained 40 scoreless yards on those opportunities.
It’s important to remember that the Los Angeles Rams have one of the better run-defending lines. Additionally, we need to remember that opportunity matters and that Samuels is a great receiver.
Samuels earned 22 carries and 20 targets in Weeks 9 and 10. Fire him up if James Conner is out again in Week 11 and let the recency-biased gamers be jealous.
David Montgomery (6.0 points, RB35)
After consecutive finishes as the seventh-best running back, David Montgomery fell to RB35 in Week 10. He still had 17 carries, but only rushed for 60 yards without a target or score.
He’s not the team’s receiving back and his 3.4 (No. 47) True Yards Per Carry is awful, but Montgomery earned 67 opportunities in Weeks 8-10. With so few bell-cows in the league, that opportunity matters.
Montgomery is a paradox of opportunity and performance. He’s top-12 in Dominator Rating, Game Script, and Goal Line Carries. Yet, he also has a negative-12.6 (No. 50) Production Premium, faces 6.9 (No. 15) average defenders in the box and owns a 61.5 (No. 39) Run Blocking Efficiency rating.
If him and his offense were more efficient, Montgomery would be a top-12 running back every week. Against the Los Angeles Rams next week though, think of Montgomery as a volume-based RB2.
Todd Gurley (7.3 points, RB31)
Somehow, Todd Gurley didn’t have a single touch in the fourth quarter last week. Even though he’d already rushed 12 times for a solid 73 yards, the Los Angeles Rams chose to keep him benched.
https://youtu.be/zYwqvBc8LPw
All the metrics in the world can’t convince us to trust Gurley anymore. His injury history, combined with how much Sean McVay is willing to use him, are scary.
This season, Gurley has only two top-12 performances and zero games with 20-plus touches. Moreover, the difference between his 72.8-percent (No. 9) Snap Share and 106.4 (No. 23) Weighted Opportunities is bad. Even when he’s on the field, they aren’t using him like a bell-cow.
Tight End
Darren Waller (7.0 points, TE22)
The first eight weeks of the season was “Darren Waller szn,” but Derek Carr only targeted Waller seven times in the past two weeks.
It’s been three weeks since Waller reached 10 fantasy points, 53 yards or four receptions in a game. He still ran 30 routes in Week 10 and earned his second 100-percent Snap Share of the season.
Against the Bengals in Week 11, Waller will get right. It’s time again to trust him and his +19.6 (No. 4) Production Premium and 73.6-percent (No. 6) Route Participation.
