Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 10

by Taylor Smith · Value Plays

Maximizing your fantasy points per salary dollar is the key to cashing in DFS. If you want to afford the best cash plays on the slate, dumpster diving for underpriced value plays is the way to go. With so much RB value on the slate this week, DFS gamers won’t need to punt multiple positions to afford the best cash plays. This will make for a high-scoring week, which can be fun and challenging. Here are the best DFS Flex values for Week 10 based on PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics.

Mike Davis, RB, Carolina Panthers

DraftKings: $4000, FanDuel: $5400

There is no need to bury the lede here. Christian McCaffrey is out with a shoulder injury and Mike Davis is min-priced on DraftKings. Davis averaged 17.3 Fantasy Points per Game in McCaffrey’s six-game absence earlier in the season with three top-12 positional finishes. He offers one of the highest floors at his position with 49 (No. 3 among qualified RBs) targets, 43 (No. 2) receptions, and 127 (No. 9) Weighted Opportunities this season. He’s also dominating defenders once he gets the ball in his hands with a 38.3-percent (No. 2) Juke Rate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPrS_hxjaQg

Despite a difficult matchup with the Buccaneers, most cash lineups will feature Davis this week. His high-floor role and stone-min pricing allow DFS gamers to afford the premium QBs on the slate that offer the monster ceilings required to win. If you aren’t playing Davis, you are overthinking cash this week.

Duke Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

DraftKings: $5000, FanDuel: $5800

One way to differentiate in tournaments is to pay up slightly for Duke Johnson. After David Johnson exited Week 9 with a concussion, Duke handled 100-percent of the backfield’s touches and targets. He will only have Buddy Howell and C.J. Prosise in the backfield with him this week. Howell is a special teamer with five career carries in three years and Prosise has played five snaps this year.

Houston’s feature back is one to covet in fantasy. In that role, David Johnson ran 192 (No. 4) routes, saw a 70.7-percent (No. 7) Opportunity Share, and saw seven (No. 5) Goal Line Carries. He was wildly inefficient, ranking outside the top 30 RBs in Juke Rate, Yards per Route Run, and Yards per Touch. But Duke has been one of the league’s most elusive and efficient RBs just waiting for a chance to be featured.

We got a small glimpse of the Texans freeing Johnson last week. He handled a career-high 20 touches, posting 73 yards and a score. As Miami’s all-time leading rusher with a 33.0-percent (76th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, he can clearly handle a heavy workload. He’s just been miscast as a satellite back due to his 14.8-percent (93rd-percentile) College Target Share and smaller stature at 5-9 and 207-pounds. The team that miscast him for the first four seasons is his opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns. They traded Johnson away last season, setting up a nice revenge narrative.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings: $5200, FanDuel: $5700

In the four games where Diontae Johnson has played at least 70-percent of snaps, he’s seen target totals of 10, 13, 15, and 10. He’s finished as a top-6 wideout in two of those games, highlighting his slate-breaking upside. Even with the emergence of Chase Claypool, Ben Roethlisberger looks Johnson’s way at a ridiculously high rate.

Diontae Johnson 2020 Game Log

Johnson also has a plus-matchup with the Bengals this week, whose secondary ranks No. 25 in Defensive Passing DVOA. Joe Burrow also plays at a fast pace (2.25 plays per minute) and can keep the pressure on the Steelers offense. They’ve averaged over 30 points over their last three games and can easily push the Steelers around on defense after they just allowed Garrett Gilbert to take a first-half lead.

This game has sneaky shootout potential and nobody will be looking to stack it. Even if you aren’t targeting this matchup in tournaments, Johnson’s tendency to see double-digit targets makes him an excellent play in a vacuum.

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

DraftKings: $5000, FanDuel: $6000

With Preston Williams landing on IR and Isaiah Ford getting shipped to the Patriots, DeVante Parker is primed to reestablish himself as a dominant alpha receiver. He finally got in a groove with his new QB in Week 9, hauling in six of his seven targets while being covered by Patrick Peterson. Parker has also been a contested-catch phenom this season, boasting a 91.7-percent (No. 1) Contested Catch Rate. His overall fantasy performance has been a disappointment, only finishing as a top-12 WR only once (Week 4 vs. Seattle) this season. That is largely due to a lack of volume, as he’s only averaged 6.1 targets per game compared to 8.0 last season.

Injuries to his teammates should alleviate those concerns. His only competition is “move-TE” Mike Gesicki and undersized speedster Jakeem Grant. Parker can easily hit double-digit targets if the Dolphins fall behind early, which is possible with rookie sensation Justin Herbert on the other side of the ball. The matchup with the Chargers might not seem ideal on the surface, but cheap volume is always the way to go in DFS. Parker is an excellent “bring-back” option for those looking to stack the Chargers in lineups.

Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

DraftKings: $4200, FanDuel: $5800

Dallas Goedert made his way back from his ankle fracture and promptly let fantasy gamers down with a one-catch Week 8 performance. The good news is that he played 88.9-percent of the snaps and ran a route on 20 of 27 pass attempts. He clearly has his health and is playing nearly every down without the corpse of Zach Ertz soaking up snaps.

Check out Dallas Goedert on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Carson Wentz threw for 359 yards the last time the Eagles and Giants matched up, with backup TE Richard Rodgers catching six of eight looks for 85 yards. Expect the Eagles to draw up more plays for their second-year TE this week.