As we move through the rookie draft season, it’s time to start thinking about Dynasty Buys and Sells to improve your dynasty rosters. Here are four players you should consider trading for and away in your dynasty leagues.
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Buy Zamir White
My first buy-low player is Zamir White. White survived free agency and the NFL Draft without the Raiders bringing in elite competition. This tells me that the Raiders are invested in the third year running back to be their workhorse in 2024. The Raiders only brought in Alexander Mattison, who failed to step up as the starter in Minnesota, and Ameer Abdullah, a pass catching specialist who works well on special teams. In Round 6, the Raiders drafted Dylan Laube, a small school player who will take time developing for the NFL level. White has a clear path to break out in 2024 as the Raider’s primary back.
The Final Four Weeks
White showcased his talent on the field at the end of the 2023 season. In those final four weeks as the starter, White averaged 110 all-purpose yards and gave fantasy owners around 14 fantasy points per game in half-point PPR leagues. He carried the ball 17 plus times in each game that he started. Granted, he had some easy run defenses to go up against, but he did play the Chiefs, who were a top-10 rushing unit, and ran for 145 yards against them. White ranked No. 16 in breakaway run rate and had as many breakaway runs as Josh Jacobs with 120 fewer carries. He would average 3.43 yards per carry after first contact, showing off his ability to pound the rock.
As a contending team, when thinking about Dynasty Buys and Sells, I’m looking to go out and buy low on White for the potential upside he could offer in 2024. As rookie drafts are happening right now, it’s a great time for those contending teams to offer up a late 1st round pick in return for his service. Don’t let that first-rounder fool you. White offers a higher ceiling than a late first-round value you’re giving up. Even a high second-round pick could get the job done as well. White is someone you want to buy into before his 2024 breakout season.
Buy Darnell Mooney
We move over to a receiver in Darnell Mooney as the next buy low. Mooney moves this offseason to the Atlanta Falcons. He signed a three-year, 39-million-dollar deal to be the WR2 for the team. The Falcons didn’t make many moves to put around their new franchise quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. Outside of bringing in Mooney, they traded for Rondale Moore, who has disappointed since coming into the league. They drafted a receiver late in the NFL Draft, Casey Washington. This leaves a clear path for Mooney to see a suitable workload in the Falcons offense.
Afterthought
Mooney has been an afterthought for the last two seasons in fantasy after combining for fewer receptions, yards, and touchdowns than his 2021 breakout season. For Mooney’s sake, he did get hurt in 2022, which ended his season early. He was part of the worst passing offense in football over the last three seasons. During that 2021 season, Mooney would prove to be a solid downfield threat. He would rank No. 15 in deep targets and No. 13 in air yards. Mooney has a natural ability to separate from his defender, as he ranked No. 7 that season in target separation. Mooney also produced yards after the catch, ranking No. 18 in the league that season. Mooney did benefit from being the WR1 and had 140 targets.
While Mooney won’t be the WR1 with the Falcons, I expect the passing game to be more prominent than the Bears passing offense in 2023. Over the last three seasons, Cousins has targeted at least four pass catchers who saw over 80 targets. Outside of Drake London and Kyle Pitts, the Falcons don’t have any other pass catchers that would get up to that level of targets. Mooney should easily see 80-plus targets in 2024. Mooney shouldn’t cost you as much as Zamir White above. I’ve seen trades with Mooney. It may only take a third-round pick to acquire his services in 2024. Mooney is at an all-time low, but he will have an opportunity to rebound in 2024. Mooney is exactly the kind of player to target when considering Dynasty Buys and Sells.
Sell Michael Pittman Jr.
Michael Pittman Jr. is my first sell candidate this offseason in this Dynasty Buys and Sells article. He was just given the bag– three years, 70 million dollars. It was rightfully earned, and Pittman finished 2023 with 1,152 receiving yards and four touchdowns. While Pittman is a fantastic receiver, I have concerns about this offense, as it is likely a rush-first unit. Anthony Richardson is returning as the starter. It’s no secret that he is dramatically different from Gardner Minshew. Richardson has a more gifted arm talent than Minshew, but his ability as a rusher is a complete 180 from Minshew. Last season, Richardson played in four games and had 138 rushing yards. Minshew played in 16 games and finished with 100 rushing yards. The concern will be how accurate and reliable the passing game will be.
Anthony Richardson
The Colts finished No. 12 in rushing last season and No. 19 in passing. I’d expect the rushing to increase with Richardson and a healthy Jonathan Taylor leading the backfield in 2024. Richardson averaged only 21 attempts per game, while Minshew averaged 31. I don’t expect Richardson to make that massive jump in pass attempts in what will hopefully be his first full season. Pittman could see a decrease in targets compared to what he has seen in the last two seasons. We should expect Josh Downs to take steps forward. He had a good first half until he got banged up. The Colts also drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second half to help stretch the defense. The hopeful return of Jelani Woods to tight end could make it so there are too many mouths to feed in the offense.
Pittman just makes sense as a good sell candidate in this run-first offense. Pittman has been lucky to see a massive target share in the offense over the last two seasons, which has propelled his production. Pittman is also a low touchdown receiver with 15 over four seasons. If the team gets to the red zone, I expect Richardson and Taylor to be top priorities on plays in those situations. I’d use Pittman to trade up to get a receiver in a better situation for fantasy. If Pittman finishes with 900 yards and four touchdowns, I expect owners to hesitate to move forward with him. Pittman comes in as a high-end WR2, but this offense in 2024 may make Pittman more of a WR3/flex option. Therefore, in terms of Dynasty Buys and Sells, he is a sell.
Sell David Montgomery
My final sell candidate is David Montgomery. Montgomery is coming off a career season for fantasy football. He managed to finish RB13 due to his 12 rushing touchdowns. Montgomery is part of a dual-threat backfield with second year running back Jahmyr Gibbs. He would only average 80 all-purpose yards per game but came close to a touchdown in each game. Montgomery only averaged seven fantasy points per game when he didn’t score a touchdown. In games where he did score, he would end up with 15-plus fantasy points in half-point PPR leagues.
Since 2013, there have been 34 players who have had double-digit rushing touchdowns. Of those 34 players, seven have repeated with double-digit touchdowns. That’s a 20-percent hit rate on a running back repeating such production. While Montgomery stays on the same offense, it will be hard to repeat his 2023 stats. I expect Gibbs to expand his role in the offense, playing more of the 1A to Montgomery’s 1B role. Montgomery only averages two targets per game. Therefore, he is touchdowns dependent and a risky asset in Dynasty.
Montgomery will turn 27 by the start of the 2024 season, which is at the end of the prime age range for a running back’s production. If Montgomery doesn’t get 12 rushing touchdowns again in 2024, his value as a reliable RB2 turns into a floor play as a flex option. I’d move Montgomery to get a young running back or wide receiver. I use Montgomery in deals to acquire RB1-tier running backs. I’d look to get Jonathan Taylor or Josh Jacobs. I’d use Montgomery to get more of a workhorse running back for your contending team.
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