Every time a door opens in the NFL, another door closes. When players are drafted, someone else’s job and usage are in jeopardy. This is a league of continual change and touches being earned. This year’s NFL Draft was no different. There were winners and there were losers. Dynasty Fantasy Football Managers ride an emotional rollercoaster and leave the draft either feeling a sense of relief and optimism or dread. I will examine Dynasty’s Winners and Losers post-NFL Draft in a series of articles.
In this article, I examine some players who were Dynasty Losers and left the NFL Draft with big question marks about their near or long-term futures.
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Losers
QB Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons
Cousins signed with Atlanta this offseason, continuing his run in Dynasty Fantasy Football. He went from Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson to another set of appealing weapons in Robinson, London, and Pitts. The Falcons paid Cousins a four-year, $180 million mega deal. Despite his age (35), Cousins was insulated in Dynasty value in an ascending offense with contract insulation. Then came the NFL Draft.
The Falcons shocked the world by selecting Michael Penix Jr. at No. 8 overall. The move made no sense to anyone at the time. But as the dust has settled, there have been even more indicators that Penix will be a major issue for Cousins. The Falcons viewed him as the No. 2 QB prospect in this entire draft- ahead of Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Cousins could presumably hold Penix off for all of 2024. Ideally, Cousins leads Atlanta to a deep playoff run before handing off the keys to the offense sometime in the future. However, stories like this one rarely end that simply.
RB James Conner – Arizona Cardinals
Conner ran for a career high 1,040 rushing yards in 2023. Not only does Conner have to contend with Father Time this season (he turns 29 in May), but he also has to contend with Trey Benson for touches. Arizona selected Benson in the third round with the No. 66 overall pick. The selection felt like the changing of the guard in the desert. Benson ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine and has terrific size. Conner could hold off Benson for a good portion of the season, but the change could come way more quickly than some Conner managers are hoping for.
RB Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers
Hubbard was this year’s James Robinson, Michael Carter, and Tyler Allgeier. This is a tale as old as time. It is the cautionary tale in Dynasty Fantasy Football that just because someone plays well the year before, they can lose their job with one draft pick.
Hubbard will not disappear, and will maintain a weekly role in the offense, but he will be the RB2 in Carolina. Jonathon Brooks was the first RB off the board and is on his way to becoming the focal point of the offense.
RB Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers
Jacobs should still return value in 2024, but his ceiling was capped with the selection of MarShawn Lloyd. There are also a lot of question marks about Jacobs’ long-term future with the Packers, and the chances that his Green Bay tenure could be short lived grew extensively. Lloyd has size (220-pounds) and speed (4.46 40). He was the most impressive RB at the Senior Bowl and profiles as a player who will get weekly touches. Jacobs target total is also capped, as Lloyd projects as a solid pass catcher out of the backfield.
WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown – Kansas City Chiefs
Brown gained Dynasty value the day he signed in Kansas City and saw another value spike with Rashee Rice‘s off field issues. The Worthy selection puts a dent not only in Brown’s long term fit in KC, but also his 2024 ceiling.
WR Christian Kirk – Jacksonville Jaguars
The selection of Brian Thomas Jr. at No. 23 overall is not that problematic for Kirk this season.
Neither player has an overlapping skill set or role. But the hope that Kirk could be a huge beneficiary of Calvin Ridley‘s departure to Tennessee took another hit. Kirk has never been targeted more than 133 times, and it will be difficult for him to hit that number this year. Thomas Jr. also takes over at the most valuable Jaguars WR in dynasty.
WR D.J. Moore – Chicago Bears
Moore was sensational in 2023, finishing as WR6 Overall- the highest finish of his career. Chicago traded for Keenan Allen – last year’s WR8, but Moore managers could talk themselves into the pair co-existing. The 32-year-old Allen was also no threat to Moore’s long-term outlook. Chicago could have drafted an offensive lineman at No. 9 overall, but instead they drafted Rome Odunze. Make no mistake about it, this is a bad result for Moore managers. The 21-year-old Odunze has size, speed, and was an elite producer at Washington.
Moore and Odunze are neck and neck now in Dynasty value, but all Odunze has to do is flash early and he becomes the most valuable Bears WR. Moore is poised to have another strong season, but this outcome has to be a big disappointment for his Dynasty Fantasy Football managers.
TE Cole Kmet – Chicago
Like Moore, Kmet has took a hit during the NFL Draft. The Odunze and Allen additions are tough ones for last season’s TE8. Kmet played very well in 2023, but it is difficult to foresee him returning to his levels of production. The target competition is just too difficult to overcome.
Add in RB D’Andre Swift, and Kmet could be an unpredictable player week to week. The bull argument is Kmet could benefit from more red zone opportunities and be a threat to score more TDs, but the volume will be lacking.
Read Theo’s breakdown of the rounds two and three of the NFL Draft here: 2024 NFL Draft Day 2 and 3 Recap: Dynasty and Redraft Takeaways
