I have drafted in countless rookie drafts at this point and studied the draft boards from many others. Every draft I have looked at has had an entry fee of at least $250. Some have entry fees that are way higher. Some results are predictable, but others were slightly surprising. Use this information to crush YOUR dynasty rookie draft!
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The Michael Penix Discount
Michael Penix Jr. is the least expensive top 10 QB in Superflex rookie drafts in years. In two higher stakes FFPC Triflex Leagues (Superflex with three starting WRs) I saw Penix Jr. selected at the 2.05 twice. The price was expected. Penix has been potentially relegated to a backup role behind Kirk Cousins with no end date. But if the market is incorrect on the timing of a Penix QB takeover, and the rookie starts earlier than expected, this could be the steal of the entire draft. With outstanding weapons and fantasy-friendly indoor games, Penix has a pathway to instant fantasy viability the moment he has an opportunity to play.
Jaylen Wright Climbing
Jaylen Wright is the most expensive fourth round NFL Draft pick RB in a crowded backfield ever in rookie drafts. He is living in the early second round in all formats – including Superflex. He was selected as high as the 1.12 in a 1 QB league I am in. In 2021, Michael Carter had a similar ADP, but his backfield competition was journeyman veteran Tevin Coleman. Wright has to deal with last season’s RB2 overall in Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane who is an RB1 in Dynasty startups.
The Mike McDaniel factor is real, and when the Dolphins traded a future third rounder to select Wright in the fourth round that was all drafters needed to see. The speedy Wright is a potential league winner if he gets on the field. Right now, he looks like the RB3, but this is a bet on potential opportunity and situation. If Mostert or Achane miss time, Wright would be an instant fantasy starter. There is always the chance that he can break through regardless of who is in front of him.
If Wright hits big, arguments will be made that Round 4 is the new Round 3 for NFL RBs in an age of devaluing the position. A failure to break through would be yet another cautionary tale in investing in Day 3 RBs in rookie drafts.
Rome Odunze vs Brock Bowers
Per FantasyMojo.com’s Darren Armani, Odunze and Bowers are neck and neck in 1 QB FFPC leagues for No. 3 overall.
Bowers leads Odunze 47-percent-42.5-percent in third overall pick selections in FFPC TE leagues. Odunze leads Bowers 49-37 for fourth overall. This is about as close as it gets. The draft’s top TE and the No. 9 overall selection at WR are on a win-rate collision course. Both could have strong NFL and fantasy careers, but in a few years, it will be clear who was the better selection.
Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels Steaming Up in All Formats
Williams is the unquestioned 1.01 in Superflex formats with Daniels settling in as the second or third overall pick. What is interesting to see is how enthusiastic drafters are about these two players in 1 QB formats. Talented QBs often fall in 1 QB settings even if they have strong fantasy potential. Last season, Anthony Richardson fell to the second round often, and C.J. Stroud was a 1 QB afterthought. A year later, both players look like absolute steals at those prices.
This year, drafters are treating Williams and Daniels as prime Dynasty assets regardless of format. Williams is often selected in the first round and rarely falls past the 2.03. I have seen Daniels go off the board at the 1.11 and 1.12 and settles into the middle of Round 2 a lot. In one league, I selected him with the 2.07.
Marshawn Lloyd Handcuff Plus
Lloyd landed behind Josh Jacobs in Green Bay. While the landing spot is not ideal for a high-volume early role, there is still a great deal of steam with Lloyd’s ADP. He never falls out of the second round and occasionally goes off the board at the 1.12 in 1 QB formats. There has been a lot of positive buzz about his ability to carve out an early role as a handcuff plus this season. Expect the Lloyd steam to continue into redraft.
Jermaine Burton Take Off
Burton has been a post NFL Draft riser. I see him routinely selected in the second round and never lasts past the first few picks of the third. Burton is talented and has the speed to make big plays down the field early and often in his NFL career. But the profile does not tell half the story when assessing his early ADP.
Burton is the contingent upside bet if Tee Higgins plays elsewhere whether in 2025 or sooner. He also can slide right into the Tyler Boyd role as the WR3 in 2024.
Ja’Lynn Polk – Javon Baker Two Step
Drafters are taking shots on Drake Maye‘s new WR1, but there is some confusion on who it may be. The Patriots took a “double shot,” at the position, drafting Ja’Lynn Polk early in the second round and followed up with Javon Baker in the fourth. Baker has a lot of buzz despite his draft capital. This has not only drove his ADP up, but also kept Polk’s down to an affordable range. Polk routinely is selected in the second or third round of rookie drafts, and Baker is not too far behind. I have also seen some sharp drafters positioning themselves early in the third round and double tapping (selecting both players back-to-back) them.
Ben Sinnott Island
Drafters have primarily ignored this TE class, except for Brock Bowers and Sinnott. Bowers goes off the board in the first half of Round 1. What was not expected was just how far apart Sinnott was from TE3. Much like Bowers, Sinnott has settled into his own mini-tier as the draft’s TE2 overall.
He routinely goes off the board in the early second round and rarely lasts past the end of the second in any TE premium draft like the FFPC. The gap between Sinnott and the next TE off the board can be massive. Ja’Tavion Sanders is usually the next TE selected, but the waiting time between him and Sinnott can be as many as 20 picks or more.
Kimani Vidal to Lead the Roman Empire?
Days of referring to Kimani Vidal as a sleeper can go out the window. Despite being selected in the sixth round of the NFL draft, Vidal is being steamed up in rookie drafts. He never falls out of the third round, and sometimes sneaks into the second. Drafters are betting on Vidal overcoming Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins and leading the Chargers backfield. There have been a few VERY high Vidal sightings. In a $5000 a year entry fee 1 QB FFPC league, Vidal was selected with the 2.02. There are certain drafters who are willing to push him up the board. If he is part of your draft plan, do not wait too long or he will be gone.
Xavier Legette – Living in Round 2
Legette was selected with the final pick in Round 1 of the NFL Draft to the Carolina Panthers. Despite his athletic measurables and early NFL Draft capital, Legette is almost never drafted in the first round of rookie drafts. Legette has settled into the second round and sometimes goes in the latter portion of it. I was able to draft one share at the 2.11 in a Supeflex format FFPC league. It is rare to see a player with his draft capital AND available opportunities available at these ranges of rookie drafts. Either he turns out to be a huge bargain, or he becomes another cautionary tale about avoiding players with his profile (late breakout, older).
For more work from Theo Gremminger, check out this article – Dynasty Fantasy Football Losers – Post 2024 NFL Draft (playerprofiler.com)
