Football is back, and so is the weekly column, Dynasty Ups and Downs. Each week, I will present players to buy and sell (dynasty trades to make) based on their evaluation in the Dynasty marketplace. As we all know, Dynasty fantasy football is an ever-changing landscape, and the best way to succeed is to stay one step ahead of the competition. This article aims to do just that.
PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. Below, Seth Diewold gives guidance on dynasty trades to make – identifying players who are buys and sells in dynasty.
A Note on Week 1
It sure looks like the Rams are going to take their time with Blake Corum. While this may look like a grim scenario for the third rounder from Michigan, as far as dynasty trades go, I am still looking to buy. It only takes one injury for a situation to completely change in fantasy football. Kyren Williams missed four games last season. Just saying.
Dynasty Buys
D.J. Moore
I’m bullish on the long-term prospects of D.J. Moore in this Bears offense with Caleb Williams at quarterback. While some will rush to judgment after just one NFL game, I will say we should have seen this coming. The interior of the Bears offensive line (a known weakness coming into the season) was manhandled all game long by T’Vondre Sweat and Jeffery Simmons. Caleb Williams made some poor throws and bad decisions (a rookie quarterback has never been accused of that *sarcasm alert*).
Better days are ahead for the Bears as Williams adapts to the NFL. As a result, better days are ahead for D.J. Moore especially. Even in a game where the Bears offense was putrid, Moore earned eight targets and ran for 14 yards on an end around. Moore is terrific after the catch and will help pad his rookie quarterback’s stats in games this season (much like he did for Justin Fields). I’m not worried at all, and I’m buying the dip if there is one on D.J. Moore.
Rashee Rice
If the pending legal situation wasn’t hanging over Rashee Rice‘s head, he’d be one of the most coveted assets in Dynasty. Right now, he’s currently ranked No. 34 overall (and that’s with him rising 42 spots in the last 30 days) according to KTC’s Dynasty Superflex Rankings. Rice is in line to be the top target on the Kansas City Chiefs as soon as Travis Kelce decides to hang up his cleats. When this happens, Rice will be impossible to acquire in Dynasty.
Is he going to serve a suspension at some point? Yes. As a result, he will likely miss somewhere in the neighborhood of 4-8 games. That short term hit is no big deal for us Dynasty gamers. It’s time to buy high on Rashee Rice.
Dalton Kincaid
This could be extended to all the elite tight ends in Dynasty right now. However, I will choose to focus on Dalton Kincaid. In the Arizona game, the Cardinals chose to take him away. In the Thursday night game against the Dolphins, the game got out of hand quickly. The Bills got up big, and there was no need to push the ball down the field to their pass catchers.
In the Miami game, Kincaid finished second on the team in targets with four. Against the Cardinals, he was only targeted once, but as I mentioned above it was clear the Cardinals aimed to take him away completely. As some of these younger pass catchers start to come into their own (Shakir, Coleman, etc), Kincaid should have more room to breathe in this offense. If you can buy low, that is a wise move.
Dynasty Sells
Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams led the Lions in targets and receiving production in Sunday night’s win against the Rams. However, it’s hard for me to believe that Williams is all of a sudden, an excellent wide receiver. The more likely case is that the Rams decided to take away Amon-Ra St. Brown, limit Sam LaPorta, and as a result Williams was the clear winner coming out of Sunday.
As teams adjust, and the Week 1 hysteria dies down, Jameson Williams‘s production will revert back to the mean. St. Brown and LaPorta are the clear top options in this passing game, and they won’t be held down all season. Also, let’s not forget about Jahmyr Gibbs who was also targeted six times last week. Now is the time to sell high on Jameson Williams.
Isaiah Likely
I wrote about Likely last week, so I will keep this brief (but I do believe it bears repeating). The Chiefs bracketed Mark Andrews last week, and as a result Likely had a big game. I do believe the Ravens have a plan to use Likely in the passing game, but Andrews and Flowers are the top pass catching options in this offense. Likely may be the third pass catching option in the offense, but it’s time to capitalize on a player who just had the best game of his life (and likely, no pun intended, the best game of his career).
Stefon Diggs
Sure, Stefon Diggs caught the touchdowns last week, but he was out targeted by both Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Diggs was on the field more than Dell this week, but Diggs is a 30-year-old wide receiver, and it’s going to be tough trying to predict which Texans wideout catches the touchdowns from C.J. Stroud on a week in, week out basis.
One of my favorite tools to use when evaluating my dynasty teams is the WoRP tool at South Harmon. Check it out here – WoRP — South Harmon Fantasy Football (southharmonff.com)
This is more a suggestion for a rebuilding Dynasty team. If I’m a win now team, I’m riding the highs and lows that are going to come with Stefon Diggs this season. If I’m a rebuilding team, I’m looking to see if I can swap him for a young player with some upside and possibly rookie picks.
Conclusion
When it comes to dynasty trades (buys and sells), some of the best moves are often the hardest to make. Staying one step ahead of the competition is important, and sometimes that means making moves that others will disagree with. That’s okay. Different people have different opinions about player values.
And while it is true that not every trade will work out, if you win more dynasty trades than you lose, chances are your Dynasty team will be successful in the long run. Stay tuned for more advice, and feel free to DM me any questions you may have on twitter (see the handle at the bottom of the page). Until next time, happy trading, and best of luck to your dynasty teams this season!
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