Building championship level teams is all about finding microadvantages and letting those microadvantages compile overtime. We find microadvantages by locating the most efficient bets to make based on general market value. In other words, taking a source like KeepTradeCut that crowdsources market value and comparing that to our rankings to see what players are being undervalued. This process will help us identify which Dynasty Trades we should be making.
Using the process, we have a tool that combines peripherals, prospect profile, and age. This helps us find players that you should be trading for in your own Dynasty leagues.
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Justin Herbert
Player Value: 13th / Process Rank: 9th
It’s no secret that Justin Herbert‘s situation got worse this offseason. He lost his two top wide receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams while adding a coach who has historically deployed a low passing volume offense.
Now, I’m not saying that this isn’t a possible issue. Herbert has only played two games in his career (3.1 percent) without both Allen and Williams. But it’s an issue that the market has already shown they are worried about. His value is down a staggering 8.3 percent since the start of last season.
Herbert is one of just four quarterbacks to post multiple seasons of at least 24.0 points per game in their first four years. Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson are in this category. Typically, when you get a chance to acquire a Cornerstone level player for cheaper than their profile suggests because of their situation, you should. This is because we know that situation changes a lot quicker than talent does. Therefore, Herbert is a player to target in Dynasty Trades.
Xavier Worthy
Player Value: 62nd / Process Rank: 57th
Xavier Worthy is not a target in Dynasty Trades because he ran a fast 40-yard dash or landed on the Chiefs. He’s a buy because he ran a fast 40-yard dash, landed on the Chiefs, and has an Elite level prospect profile.
In fact, he joins Calvin Ridley as the only first round wide receivers to post at least a 25 percent target share in every collegiate season. He’s also joining Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, and Jordan Addison, as the only Elite prospects to post at least 14 points per game in every collegiate season.
His speed may be similar to John Ross. However, that’s where the comparison ends. While Worthy posted at least 14 points per game in every collegiate season, that’s something Ross didn’t do until he was a senior. A better comparison would be Jaylen Waddle. Waddle joins Worthy as the only wide receivers with at least a 4.30 forty-yard dash to post at least 2.50 yards per team pass attempt before their senior season.
People often say that talent is more important than situation. I agree with them. But in the case of Worthy, we get to combine talent and situation.
Josh Jacobs
Player Value 68th / Process Rank: 58th
The Packers signing Josh Jacobs may have been unexpected. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not a great thing. That is, for those holding and acquiring Jacobs in fantasy football.
Jacobs has been a heavy usage Bellcow running back in back-to-back years now. He’s posted 79.4 and 73.8 percent carry percentages respectively in back-to-back seasons. Additionally, Jacobs became just the fourth running back to post at least a 70 percent carry percentage in their fourth and fifth season. He joined Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Le’Veon Bell in doing so.
He’s also has been a strong target earner out of the backfield. Jacobs posted 10.9 and 12.7 percent target shares in those seasons. He also achieved at least a 10.0 percent target share in each of the past three seasons.
Now, he finds himself going from an offense that ranked No. 23 in points and No. 27 in yards to an offense that ranked No. 12 in points and No. 11 in yards in 2023. The situation upgrade for Jacobs can’t be overstated. Additionally, Jacobs is currently ranked outside of the top 65. Therefore, his price tag makes him easily acquirable in Dynasty Trades.
Michael Penix Jr
Player Value: 89th / Process Rank: 77th
The Falcons taking Michael Penix Jr No. 8 overall was unquestionably the shock of the draft. It was one of the more puzzling moves we’ve seen in recent years. While it doesn’t put Penix Jr in a great spot immediately, sitting behind Cousins for the foreseeable future, there isn’t a player that had their stock rise higher in our process compared to pre-draft evaluations than Penix Jr.
Coming into the draft, Penix Jr. being a first-round pick was still in question as his over/under was set at 32.5 by FanDuel. The only quarterback to get drafted in the first round after playing past their fifth year of college was Brandon Weeden.
But with him being selected in the top 10, he’s essentially guaranteed starting opportunity. Even if it’s not immediately, he will still get it. There have been 32 quarterbacks drafted in the top ten from 2006 to 2022. Out of those 32, only Trey Lance hasn’t started a whole season worth of games.
He’s also the cheapest top 10 pick quarterback since KeepTradeCut started crowdsourcing value. The second cheapest first-round quarterback was Jordan Love. Acquiring a quarterback who was a top 10 pick in the NFL Draft shouldn’t be this cheap. Therefore, this is a player to target in Dynasty Trades.
Demario Douglas
Player Value: 163rd / Process Rank: 159th
Based on player value and process rank, it may not seem like DeMario Douglas is much of a buy. However, he is. While you shouldn’t have full conviction on a Day 3 player who didn’t have extremely strong per game peripherals, what he did on a per route basis shows that there are plenty of possibilities to pay off at his cheap cost.
Douglas posted a 23.9 percent target rate along with 1.70 yards per route run. This is quite impressive for a sixth-round draft pick. In fact, he joins Amon-Ra St Brown, Puka Nacua, Marques Colston, Mike Williams, and Denarius Moore as the only wide receivers drafted on Day 3 to post at least a 22.0 percent target rate and 1.50 yards per route run on 300 routes run.
He also goes from an abysmal passing offense with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe throwing him the ball, to the upside of Drake Maye for the foreseeable future.
Douglas clearly isn’t a surefire bet to hit heading into Year 2, but his realistic upside is well worth betting on outside of the top 150 players.
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