Dynasty trading is all about being tuned in to the market – keeping a pulse on player values and making moves at just the right time. To capitalize on market movements, buy in when a player is priced low and ready to make a value climb, and get out when a player’s value has peaked and is getting ready to plummet. Here are some players whose values are peaking and are prime sell high candidates in Dynasty.
1. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris is not even the best running back on his own team, and his usage will suffer going forward because of it. His backfield mate, Jaylen Warren, outproduced Harris on less carries, and bested him in just about every metric we care about when it comes to running backs. Warren outproduced Harris in True Yards Per Carry, targets, Yards Per Touch, Juke Rate, and Breakaway Run Rate.
Put simply, Harris has relied on a high Target Share for production in the past. During his rookie season in 2021, he ranked No. 5 among RBs in Target Share (14.5-percent), reeling in 94 targets. It was also Ben Roethlisberger‘s final season, and Harris benefited from a plethora of dump offs. In 2021, Harris ranked as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. In 2023, Harris earned just 38 targets (No. 33 among RBs) and was the RB30 in fantasy points per game.
Additionally, Harris will turn 26 years old before the next NFL season kicks off. At the very least, Harris is now sharing a backfield with Warren, but the truth of the matter is Harris doesn’t see nearly the amount of receiving work that he used to, and he isn’t as efficient as his running mate Warren. It’s only a matter of time before a smart Steelers coaching staff figures out it’s better to play Warren over Harris.
2. A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles ended the season in just about the worst way they possibly could. This offense faces a lot of questions going forward, and it’s fair to ask the question: will A.J. Brown ever play as well as he did during the first half of the 2023 NFL season? In Weeks 3 through 9, Brown finished as a top-12 WR six times and a top-three WR three times. During that stretch, Brown was the WR1 in all of fantasy football.
The problem was the second half of the season. From Week 11 until the end of the season, Brown finished as a top-12 WR just one time. He also finished outside of the top-24 in fantasy points per game in all but two of those games. Brown did suffer a bruised thigh in that Week 11 matchup against Kansas City, but the injury alone doesn’t explain Brown’s lack of production during the back half of the NFL season.
Brown’s lull in production has everything to do with the Eagles offense as a whole. Something was off. Something stopped working, and the Eagles need to do everything in their power during the offseason to address exactly what went wrong. In Dynasty, it would be wise to trade Brown, who will be entering his age 27 season in 2024.
3. Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker‘s value took a hit when the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet, and many analysts wondered how his usage would be affected going forward. After one full season with both Charbonnet and Walker on the same team, Walker was solid. He certainly had games where he showed his potential as a runner.
If he comes to Seattle I’m trading DK and Kenneth Walker in dynasty for Colby Parkinson and Deejay Dallas 😤 https://t.co/uf2jotmTcv
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) January 23, 2024
However, Walker ranks as the RB9 according to Keep Trade Cut, and after two seasons, he has never finished higher than the RB16 in fantasy points per game. He doesn’t see enough targets to justify the top-10 ranking.
Additionally, Walker’s Snap Share regressed from his rookie season. There is no doubt Charbonnet ate into his usage. Walker is a talented player, but he is going to be very dependent on Breakaway Runs and touchdowns to be an elite fantasy producer.
4. Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
The best time to trade Calvin Ridley was before the start of the 2023 NFL season. Ridley steamed up the rankings after an impressive training camp had fantasy gamers salivating. However, as has happened many times (and will most certainly happen many more times), the hype machine propelled Ridley’s value way too high. As a result, Ridley disappointed and finished as the WR18 overall and the WR27 in fantasy points per game in 2023.
Ridley just turned 29 and is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. The likelihood Ridley lands with a quarterback more talented than Trevor Lawrence is slim, but that would be the best window to sell him in Dynasty. Stay alerted to the news. Ridley will play somewhere in 2024.
5. Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns
Jerome Ford is a tricky evaluation. For me, there are just too many unknowns. Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome injury during the Browns Week 2 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s possible the Browns release him. This is a likely option, as it would save them roughly 12 million dollars in cap space. Therefore, Ford should be a favorite to lead the team’s backfield in 2024 as of this writing.
However, there are many high profile running back free agents and Ford is a former fifth round pick. Ford also wasn’t very efficient with his touches in 2023. He ranked No. 52 in True Yards Per Carry, No. 35 in Yards Per Touch, No. 40 in Juke Rate, and No. 29 in Breakaway Run Rate amongst running backs. Ford is another running back who is going to have to dodge the NFL Draft and free agency. There are simply too many scenarios where Ford loses opportunities in 2024.
6. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is still a really good football player when healthy. Unfortunately, he’s battled injuries over the last few seasons, and his production has suffered as a result. As long as Stafford is the quarterback in Los Angeles, Kupp will still be a productive fantasy player. However, Kupp’s production dipped mightily in 2023, as he was the WR23 in fantasy points per game in the games he played. That was a sharp downturn from his back-to-back seasons finishing as the WR1 in fantasy points per game.
Kupp has also regressed in Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) every season since 2021. In 2021, when he was the WR1 in fantasy points per game, Kupp ranked No. 1 amongst WRs in YPRR. In 2023, Kupp ranked WR32 in YPRR. Perhaps that had something to do with the emergence of Puka Nacua, but it looked as though Kupp was regressing as a player. Sure, Kupp could have something left in the tank, but it will be hard to reclaim the WR1 magic in the post-30 world where Kupp now resides.
7. De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins
This one is likely going to trigger some people because there is no doubt Achane is electric when he is on the field. There is also no doubt Achane has RB1 overall upside any given week. However, Achane is likely going to be a part-time player out of necessity throughout his career due to his size. This season, Achane ranked No. 41 amongst running backs in Weighted Opportunities. Luckily for him, Achane ranked No. 1 in True Yards Per Carry and No. 1 in Breakaway Run Rate. Achane’s efficiency propelled him to the RB5 in fantasy points per game.
However, Achane played in 11 total games, and despite missing time, he is still not available at a discount. In fact, Achane ranks as the RB7 overall according to Keep Trade Cut. That’s pricey. At that price, a dynasty gamer could get Isiah Pacheco or Rachaad White plus in return for Achane or potentially multiple rookie picks – at least one first round pick, possibly two. It’s a risky move to make, but the smart move is to cash out.
8. Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Out of all the weapons in San Francisco, Deebo Samuel is the one that scares me the most going forward. There is no doubt Samuel is an electric playmaker, especially after the catch. In 2023, he ranked as the WR9 in Yards After Catch, WR12 in fantasy points per game, and the WR15 in total points.
The problem is Samuel’s fantasy upside is directly tied to his Yards After Catch ability. Samuel ranked as the WR95 in Unrealized Air Yards and the WR92 in Average Depth of Target. The 49ers’ game plan is to get him the ball quickly and in space, and who can blame them? The problem is once his athleticism starts to fade, Samuel will have a steep decline in production.
Another issue with Samuel is the way the 49ers use him. Samuel is going to be one of the most likely players to get injured every season because of the way he is used in the backfield. Maybe the 49ers will move away from using him that way, but that is not a guarantee. Additionally, Samuel just turned 28 years old and is past the age apex. For all of these reasons, it’s best to put Samuel on the trade block.
9. Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
The regime change in Washington could very well make for a disruption in the volume Brian Robinson has grown accustomed to. Antonio Gibson is going to be a free agent, so there is a world where Robinson has the backfield all to himself. However, regime changes mean scheme changes, and the uncertainty doesn’t bode well for Robinson.
Additionally, Robinson has never been the most efficient player. Therefore, if another player (or two) are brought in to compete for touches, Robinson could fall out of RB2 territory and lose value. Simply put, it’s more likely Robinson loses value this offseason, and he’s approaching 25 years old, which is not quite the age apex for a running back, but it’s close.
