The Elite Fantasy Offenses of 2024 and Fantasy Draft Targets

by Joel Ybarra · Featured
Fantasy Draft

PlayerProfiler is home to the award winning redraft rankings and tools. Our Player Rankings are second to none, and the World Famous Draft Kit contains detailed player write ups and cheat sheets to help You dominate fantasy drafts! Check it out. Below, Joel Ybarra (@metaffb) identifies the teams with the best offensive environments in the NFL and fantasy draft targets from those teams. 

Fantasy drafting is all about choosing the right players, but the “right players” are often those who are in the right situations – fertile offensive environments. Certainly there are players every season who shine simply because they are talented and get volume in bad offenses. But on the other hand, there are players who are elevated simply because they are on the right teams with the best offenses. The best offenses get the most yards and score the most touchdowns – two of the main drivers of fantasy scoring.

The Fertile Offensive Environments of 2023

In 2023, there were a few such offenses who elevated multiple players to ADP wins. They are listed below with their PPG finish and preseason Underdog ADP.

Detroit Lions

Houston Texans

Miami Dolphins

As you can see, multiple offensive weapons from the monster offenses of 2023 beat their ADPs and sometimes (in the case of the Texans and the Lions), the QB was also an ADP winner.

The Best Fantasy Offenses of 2024

Below, we identify the offenses that will have the richest fantasy environments in 2024. These are the offenses that will produce multiple ADP wins, and power fantasy teams to championships in the coming season.

Atlanta Falcons

One of the most hyped offenses in the 2024 offseason was the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons’ weapons have been pushed up draft boards, but Bijan Robinson is the only one you have to select in the first round. Drake London is available in the second round and Kyle Pitts is at the end of the fifth (pick 60). We are underestimating the delta between Arthur Smith’s eccentric, low pass rate offense and a Sean McVay-influenced offense with Zac Robinson at OC and Kirk Cousins under center.

Drafters should not be shy about drafting Bijan in the first, London in the second, and Pitts in the fifth. (Don’t forget Cousins in Round 12 for a super stack.) Rondale Moore is out for the season and Darnell Mooney is a mediocre talent. That means the targets are going to consolidate around Atlanta’s three top-10 NFL Draft picks, Robinson, London. and Pitts who have finally gotten a competent QB. Kirk Cousins facilitates for his weapons.

Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams is one of the best rookie QB prospects to come into the league in recent memory. He may not match C.J. Stroud’s rookie season productivity, but Williams has the ability lift multiple Bears weapons to ADP wins. Ryan Poles has built an offense with scary-good weapons and drafters are put off by the ambiguity in both the wide receiver and running back rooms. None of the Bears wide receivers is going until the third round (D.J. Moore at pick 31, WR22). Moore can easily pay off at that ADP. Keenan Allen (pick 56, WR34) and Rome Odunze (pick 66, WR 38) can absolutely destroy theirs.

Lead back D’Andre Swift will likely also pay off at his RB25 price tag. He is going behind Rhamondre Stevenson and Zamir White, RBs in far worse offenses. The real steals, however, are Khalil Herbert (RB54) and Roschon Johnson (RB64), who will split snaps with Swift in a highly productive offense.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense is going to produce league winners in 2024. We just have to figure out which pass catchers are going to be the beneficiaries of a Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love-led offense. The Packers wide receiver room boasts multiple receivers capable of top-24 seasons, but none is being drafted before pick 58 (Jayden Reed, WR35). Luckily, the Packers pass catchers have spread themselves out across draft boards. Christian Watson is available at pick 70 overall (WR41), Romeo Doubs at pick 99 (WR51) and Dontayvion Wicks at 114 (WR56). Any of those can notch a top-24 WR season. Luke Musgrave is a late-round TE available at pick 149 (TE17).

Josh Jacobs is also again a steal at pick 50 (RB12). Jacobs was inefficient in 2023, but RB production in fantasy is primarily a function of volume. Jacobs is going to get a massive workload in Green Bay. MarShawn Lloyd is dealing with a hamstring and AJ Dillon has been ineffective, especially in the red zone, converting just two of 34 red zone carries (5.9-percent) to touchdowns in 2023. Jacobs converted five of his 36 red zone carries (13.9-percent) to TDs.

Houston Texans

In the Houston Texans, we have one of the top offenses in the league with all of its weapons discounted because no one knows who will be the target or yards leader. Nico Collins is available in the second round (17 overall, WR12), but it is just as likely Stefon Diggs (pick 32, WR23) or Tank Dell (pick 33, WR24) has a more productive fantasy season. Diggs and Dell are easy picks to make in the third round (if you don’t opt for Moore). Stroud facilitated top three fantasy PPG scoring for the Texans WRs and TEs in 2023, and he will get better in year two. The pass-catching unit sure has.

You can also draft the team’s RB1 in Joe Mixon in the fifth round and take advantage of bell cow usage and red zone carries in an offense that is going to rank in the top-10 of the NFL in scoring and touchdowns. Mixon may not be the most efficient back in the league, but he is an upgrade over Devin Singletary, especially as a touchdown-scorer. Singletary scored eight, six and then four TDs over the past three seasons, respectively. Mixon had 16, nine and 12 TDs over the same stretch. The eighth year back was also No. 2 in the league in carries inside the five-yard line last season. With only Dameon Pierce behind him on the depth chart, Mixon is going to eat, especially in the red zone.

Kansas City Chiefs

Believe it or not, the weapons from the best offense in the league are available at affordable prices this fantasy season. Isiah Pacheco is actually the highest-priced at pick 34 (RB10). That means the pass-catchers, which are the real gems in the KC offense, are all available later. Travis Kelce was TE1 last season in PPG (yes, again), but is available at pick 39 (TE2 after Sam LaPorta). Kelce has been the TE1 or TE2 in PPG for eight straight seasons (read that again), and this is the latest he has been drafted in years.

Rashee Rice (pick 48), Xavier Worthy (pick 60) and Marquise Brown (pick 70) are going at reasonable prices, so you can leave your draft with multiple pieces of a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. The most solid pick of the bunch is Rice. He was top 12 in Target Rate (27.4-percent, No. 12), Yards After Catch (654, No. 3), Yards Per Route Run (2.52, No. 10) and Red Zone Targets (22, No. 7) on a 58.6-percent (No. 79) Snap Share in 2023. Scoop him up while his value is still depressed due to off-the-field issues.

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels is a late round QB target for many, available in the ninth round (pick 98 overall). He is the biggest ADP riser at QB, rising more than 20 spots since May 1 because of his rushing prowess (1,134 rushing yards in his Heisman-winning 2023 season at LSU). Daniels’s Best Comparable is Lamar Jackson. The rookie is smaller and not quite the rusher Jackson is, but he is a more accomplished passer than Jackson was coming into the league. Daniels threw for 3,812 yards and 40 TDs last season in college, powering a 1,569-yard, 14-TD season for Malik Nabers and a 1,177-yard, 17-TD season for Brian Thomas Jr.

Daniels himself is a massive value, but the Commanders weapons are also available at a discount. The most expensive is Terry McLaurin, available in the middle of the fifth (pick 52, WR32). Jahan Dotson has gotten some negative camp buzz in recent weeks but is the best pass catcher on the team besides McLaurin. The third-year receiver is available in Round 12. The RBs are also available late: Brian Robinson in the ninth (pick 105, RB31) and Austin Ekeler in Round 12 (pick 133, RB42). Ekeler is a pass-catching back who was No. 9 in the league with 15.97 Weighted Opportunities Per Game last season. He was the overall RB1 just two short seasons ago.

Other High End Offenses with Weapons to Target

Detroit Lions

Indianapolis Colts

Miami Dolphins

Seattle Seahawks

For more articles from Joel Ybarra, click here – Fantasy Football Stacks to Win Your League | Premium Production (playerprofiler.com)