ADP can be cruel and can often lead drafters astray. Average Draft Position is the stock market of fantasy football 2024 draft prep. Some view it as the wisdom of crowds. Others will view it as a tool to know when to “reach to get their guys.” ADP has entered the common vernacular anywhere fantasy football is discussed. But one thing is for sure – it has a massive impact on the perception of players’ values.
Every summer, there are players that the market will ignore and players the market will embrace. Then there are players the market will steam up. Sometimes, this steam is content creator-driven, with multiple fantasy football websites and podcasts pounding the table for the same player. Sometimes, beat reporters can drive a player’s price tag up.
Nowadays, constant video clips from training camps can naturally affect short-term bumps in ADP. Calvin Ridley, looking like an unstoppable force of nature in highlight videos last summer in Jacksonville, is a prime example. Coach speak can be a dangerous driver of ADP steam. Does anyone remember Ron Rivera mentioning Antonio Gibson in the same breath as Christian McCaffrey?
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ADP Price Tags
The ADP price tag attached to a player remains with them throughout the season. No one mentions Ridley finishing as WR18 as a positive thing because of his ADP price tag of WR12. The ADP market creates a price, and we, as drafters, must pay for it with draft capital.
I will examine several players who were busts at ADP last season in this article. Some of these players had solid seasons, but drafters were left with a bad taste in their mouths. That carryover has led to some ADP discounts. There will be fantasy managers who “won’t ever draft that guy again! He cost me last season!” Don’t be that manager. Don’t hate the player; hate the ADP.
One year ago, these players may have cost you a premium draft pick and not delivered. But now, several of these players have fallen to discounted ADPs. The player did not change, but the price tag did. Sometimes, the situation may be less clear, creating another potential discount.
These players become Bounce Back Candidates. They are Post Hype Sleepers. A year from now, drafters could be looking back and saying, “How was that player available at that price? What a steal.” Many of these players can not only beat their ADP values but crush them.
NOTE: ADPs referenced are July 2023 vs July 2024.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2023 ADP: Late 6th Round/Early 7th Round
2024 ADP: Late 7th Round
Smith-Njigba was the first wide receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft and followed suit as the first wide receiver in rookie WR ADP. He was routinely selected around the 6/7 turn and inside the WR3 line. There was plenty of skepticism about Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf‘s locked-in usage and Seattle’s propensity for using TEs and RBs, but drafters overlooked it because of JSN’s talent.
He ended up being a big disappointment and was un-startable for the entire season. His 63 receptions, four TDs, and 628 receiving yards are not bust worthy, but the market treats him that way. JSN is only 22 years old and is now available about a round later than a year ago. A new coaching staff, including OC Ryan Grubb, have him set for a big bounce back season. He could quickly return 4th round value this season if the usage improves.
Tony Pollard
2023 ADP: Early 2nd Round
2024 ADP: 8th Round
Pollard was one of the biggest ADP risers among all players in 2023. Multiple analysts were referring to him as a dark horse candidate for RB1 overall. By late August and early September, it was common for him to sneak into the end of the first round. Pollard was coming off his best fantasy season as a pro in 2022 and his first RB1 finish. He was finally free of Ezekiel Elliott who had been viewed as the only impediment to Pollard SZN for a long time. He had little to no RB competition behind him. It was a perfect storm for an ADP rise.
He finished RB14 overall but was only RB23 in PPR PPG. His 13.1 PPG mark was 2.5 points less than his 2023 mark. Pollard took a huge step forward in terms of volume with 252 carries. He also set a career record for receptions with 55. TD scoring and efficiency numbers regressed considerably. He finished with only six TDs after posting 12 in 2023. His yards per carry fell to a career-low 4.0.
Pollard is now a Tennessee Titan, signing early as a free agent to replace Derrick Henry. Dynamic second-year back Tyjae Spears will be involved, but Pollard will still have every opportunity to be a significant contributor and featured playmaker. The Titans’ offense will feature a lot of looks to the RBs in the passing game. If Pollard can maintain similar target totals, we could look at a 200 carry/50 catch season.
Pollard is also healthier. The leg fracture late in 2022 during the NFL playoffs is a thing of the past. Better health could be a return to more explosiveness. He has a good chance at finishing as an RB2 and only costs drafters an RB3 price tag.
Christian Watson
2023 ADP: Early 4th Round
2024 ADP: Late 7th Round
Watson was an ADP rocket ship for much of the offseason before trailing off late in the summer with injury concerns. Injuries have been Watson’s Achilles heel, and he has managed to play in only 23 games over the past two seasons. He played only nine as a rookie in 2022, but simply put, he was electric.
He burst out of the scene literally and figuratively. Watson scored nine TDs on only 48 touches. He averaged over 11 yards per carry and 14.9 yards per reception. Watson was the classic case of a year two WR steaming up ADP based on the enthusiasm of drafters and newfound opportunity.
With seemingly no target competition, Watson seemed ripe for a massive breakout. Watson’s final stats were a significant disappointment for unknown upside drafters who viewed him as a major part of their draft plan. In Weeks 12 and 13, Watson posted back-to-back 20+ PPR point weeks in a row, but weeks like this were the exception and not the norm.
This offseason, Jayden Reed has leaped over Watson in ADP. He has additional target competition from sleeper Dontayvion Wicks, who flashed in games that Watson missed. If he can stay healthy, Watson could pay off big. Watson is an explosive big-play weapon in an ascending offense. He can pay off at his current ADP simply by staying healthy.
Rhamondre Stevenson
2023 ADP: 3rd Round
2024 ADP: 6th Round
Stevenson was one of the biggest ADP winners among RBs in 2022. Possessing a rare combination of size and receiving ability, Stevenson led New England with 69 receptions. He finished as RB7 overall—the only rookie or second-year back to finish as an RB1. Naturally, his ADP steamed up.
Last season, New England’s offense was a wasteland, averaging a league-low 13.9 PPG as a team. Stevenson’s season was cut short in Week 13 with a high ankle sprain. In two out of his last three games prior, he had two 20+ point performances—his only two on the season. His overall scoring dropped from 14.7 PPG to 12.1.
New England has injected new life into the offensive side of the ball, including signing Antonio Gibson as Stevenson’s backup. There is also a coordinator change with Alex Van Pelt arriving from Cleveland. Gibson could be a thorn in Stevenson’s side in terms of his receiving total, but this offense is going to use the RBs—a lot. There is no reason that Stevenson should not return to 50+ receptions this season.
The Patriots showed just how much faith they have in Stevenson with a massive new contract, paying him $36 million over four years, including $17 million guaranteed. Stevenson is now a top-seven-paid RB.
With so much youth at WR and QB (rookie Drake Maye will take over at some point), look for New England to give Stevenson all he can handle. He will have RB1 usage at a low-end RB2 price tag.
Trevor Lawrence
2023 ADP: Late 6th Round
2024 ADP: 13th Round
Lawrence is one of fantasy football’s most notable fallers at the quarterback position. One year after being selected as the QB8, he is now available as the QB15. The overall enthusiasm for the QB spot by drafters has exacerbated the drop to a full seven-round differential. In 2023, Lawrence failed to deliver on his inflated ADP price tag, dropping to QB13 overall.
Lawrence’s numbers were nearly identical in 2022 and 2023. He passed for over 4,000 yards in both 2022 and 2023 and increased his rushing yardage. This ADP drop seems punitive and an overreaction to some personnel changes. Christian Kirk is back, as is target magnet TE Evan Engram. Calvin Ridley is gone, but the Jaguars got taller and younger on the outside. Free Agent Gabriel Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. give Lawrence two potential TD threats on the outside. Both should be on the field in three-wide sets.
Lawrence will not be a Darkhorse QB1 overall candidate like some had hoped last season. He could beat his positional ADP by five or more spots. The Jacksonville offense could also exceed expectations. The AFC South is shaping up to be a shootout division.
Cooper Kupp
2023 ADP: 1st Round (Note: By Early September, his ADP fell to the 5th Round due to injuries)
2024 ADP: Mid 3rd Round
Kupp had one of the best fantasy seasons ever from a WR in 2021. He finished as WR1 overall and was dominant across multiple categories. In 2022, as the 1.01 overall in many leagues, Kupp continued his torrid pace, leading all fantasy WRs in PPR PPG. An ankle injury in Week 10 ended his chance of finishing WR1 overall in back-to-back seasons. Kupp had tightrope surgery, and drafters were betting on him again in the 1st round of 2023 drafts.
Another injury—this time his hamstring—caused Kupp to miss the first four weeks of the season. But Kupp’s injury was not the story of the early portion of the Rams season but rather the emergence of Puka Nacua. Nacua put on his best Kupp impression early on, setting multiple rookie records and providing WR1 production.
Kupp had some smash weeks (four weeks with 19 or more PPR points) and some weeks where he was invisible. He has five weeks with seven or fewer PPR points—unheard-of struggles for a player of his regard. In the NFL playoff loss to Detroit, Kupp finished with 27 receiving yards, while Nacua broke the NFL rookie record with 181.
For the first time in several years, Kupp is not the first Rams WR off the board in fantasy. He is available two rounds later than Nacua. He also goes behind Kyren Williams, making him the third Rams’ player off the board. Kupp is much healthier than in years past. Matt Stafford is still under center in LA- a player Kupp has thrived with. Is Kupp a steadily declining 31-year-old, or is he of tremendous value in drafts? The Rams’ passing game could be consolidated enough that Kupp can smash his ADP regardless of Nacua’s success. If he returns to 80 percent of what he was in 2022, he is a steal at his current price tag.
DeVonta Smith
2023 ADP: Mid to late 2nd Round
2024 ADP: Mid 4th Round
Smith’s ADP has dropped two complete rounds, creating an exciting draft value. His scoring only dipped .8 PPG off his 15 PPG mark of 2022, but drafters treat him as though his season was far worse. Despite seeing his targets reduce from 136 in 2023 to 112, Smith finished with 1,000 receiving yards for a second consecutive season.
There is now a broader gap between Smith and A.J. Brown. Brown is the alpha in the Eagles offense, but besides him, there is little to no target competition at WR. Kellen Moore‘s arrival at OC should also help Smith a lot. Expect more pass attempts from Jalen Hurts and more opportunities for Smith to reach his 2022 target total.
Smith is a talented player in one of the league’s better offenses. He has been consistently good. He feels like a great value in this range of the draft.
For more articles from Theo Gremminger click here – Fantasy Football Strategy – Drafting from the 1.03 in 2024 (playerprofiler.com)
