During the course of a fantasy football draft, there are many decisions that must be made. One of those decisions is the choice to draft an elite TE. If it is the preference of the drafter to select a tight end in the early rounds, which tight end should they target at their current fantasy football ADP? Travis Kelce or Sam LaPorta?
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Sam Laporta – Evan Ringler
Sam LaPorta’s 2023 season was one of the best rookie years from a TE in NFL history. The counting stats were certainly there, as he finished top 5 in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs. The underlying metrics were also exceptional, posting top 6 marks in Target Rate, Air Yards Share, Yards Per Route Run, Dominator Rating, and Expected Points Added. Of course, he also led all TE’s in total fantasy points and finished No. 3 in PPG. Accomplishing all of this as a rookie is completely unprecedented.
Going into his sophomore campaign, we should expect even more. The Lions boast one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL with an incredibly condensed passing attack. We are currently projecting LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown to combine for 50-percent of Detroit’s total targets. As the 2023 season progressed, he also became the No. 1 option in the redzone. In Weeks 1-11, Laporta didn’t see a single endzone target, but over the Lions’ final 10 games, he earned 10 such targets. This level of usage gives LaPorta the potential to be a true league-winner in 2024. Fade him at your own risk.
Considering that 34-year-old Travis Kelce just posted his worst season since 2016, and the offseason additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, Kelce’s production has a limited ceiling in 2024. While he may have a comparable floor to Laporta, we should be shooting for upside at the TE position. Therefore, LaPorta is a better pick at his current fantasy football ADP.
Travis Kelce – Brendon Booth
Reports of Travis Kelce‘s demise have been greatly exaggerated. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end is coming off of his worst PPR TE finish since 2015. Kelce was ONLY TE3 in 2023 and posted the lowest number of targets, fewest yards, lowest yards per catch rate, and fewest TDs of the last five seasons. Looking at Kelce’s trend, on balance, certainly could set off the red-flag alert. The truth is Kelce dealt with some injuries and missed two games. However, in the games he did play, he still posted a higher PPG average than TE1, Sam LaPorta.
Some fantasy players may be wary of the Chiefs’ WR room. Kansas City did add Hollywood Brown in the off-season, drafted speedster Xavier Worthy, and have welcomed the breakout of Rashee Rice. In reality, none of these things affect Kelce’s value. Looking back, Kelce’s best seasons have been when the Chiefs had better weapons at WR than they did last year. A competent WR room doesn’t hurt Kelce, it helps him. The Kansas City passing attack runs through Travis Kelce. 121 accrued targets in 2023 ranked him No. 4 in total targets and No. 3 in targets per game.
Regression?
Now let’s talk about regression. We know that elite players who see a drop in efficiency in a down year tend to regress back to historic levels of efficiency. A 17-game season will see Kelce return to a target load of around 140. Kelce’s points per target at ~1.8 was right on his average over the last five seasons. Regression for Kelce means another 250-point season, well clear of LaPorta’s TE1 finish of 225 fantasy points.
Kelce is currently ranked by PlayerProfiler behind LaPorta at TE2 despite scoring more PPG than LaPorta in 2023. His ADP in all formats is just behind LaPorta as well. While the TE landscape is changing, and the number of tight ends with top 10 upside is increasing, the outlook for 2024 becomes muddied. However, one thing is perfectly clear to me. Travis Kelce is still my TE1. As a result, Kelce is the better pick at his current fantasy football ADP.
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