It is not even July, but in fantasy football May feels like an absolute eternity ago. Nearly two months of news, rumors, quotes from coaches, and media reports have moved ADP in the FFPC Player’s Championship. Many of these changes may seem small, but the closer they reach the top, the more significance they have. We have over two more months before the NFL opener, and we will see further changes, but here are some significant and notable changes over the past month. This is fantasy football ADP – FFPC Risers and Fallers for the months of May and June.
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Risers
Bijan Robinson |Â RB Atlanta
Bijan Robinson has steadily climbed up redraft fantasy football ADP. In May, he was selected in the late first round and now is routinely chosen among the top seven overall picks. Robinson is neck and neck with last year’s RB1 Overall Austin Ekeler (also the 2021 RB2 Overall) and is starting to solidify himself as RB2 overall.
Bijan Robinson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
If drumbeats are strong during July, Bijan will be in the top five for the money weeks in August.
Garrett Wilson |Â WR New York Jets
Much like Robinson, Wilson has risen only slightly in fantasy football ADP, but there is significance. He is just outside the first round and routinely selected in the early second. Wilson has leaped Davante Adams (see fallers) and cleared Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith-two 2022 WR1s. Wilson faces some resistance in moving ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but we will start seeing drafts where that happens.
Alexander Mattison |Â RB Minnesota
Mattison is one of the biggest risers in fantasy football ADP of the past month. He has comfortably settled in as a top-20 RB selection. The Minnesota backfield is his for now. He is a great litmus test for drafters. They either view him as a like-for-like replacement with Dalvin Cook (last year’s RB11 Overall) or are looking elsewhere in a range with several RBs. With only DeWayne McBride and Ty Chandler as his backfield competition, it is easy to see why drafters have pushed him to this range. However, there are some question marks as to how much volume he can handle.
Joe Mixon |Â RB Cincinnati
Mixon is easily the biggest riser in Best Ball and Redraft. The off-the-field issues seem to have died on the vine. Before the NFL Draft, there were worries that Cincinnati would be a potential landing spot for players like Jahmyr Gibbs or Zach Charbonnet, but no RB was selected until Chase Brown on Day 3.
The days of sixth round Mixon or even fifth round Mixon are far gone. Mixon is a high-end RB2 continually chosen in the early fourth round. We will start seeing some third round Mixon in July. He is also driven up by stackers who want multiple pieces of Cincinatti’s potent offensive attack.
Miles Sanders |Â RB Carolina
Sanders has settled in as a fifth-rounder, and he is ahead of several backs in the sixth round. He has a clear path to handle a lot of volume in the Carolina backfield. Drafters are also buying into a bull case argument that he will be utilized more as a receiver than he was Philadelphia the past few years.
Cam Akers |Â RB LA Rams
Sean McVay has talked up Akers, and the drumbeats have been positive all offseason. The Rams did not add any Free Agent competition, and the only running backs behind Akers are second-year back Kyren Williams and rookie Zach Evans (sixth and seventh-round picks, respectively). Akers is neck and neck with Sanders, but I expect him to be drafted slightly higher in August. Akers had four straight games with 100 or more rushing yards to end the 2022 season, and he will have Bell Cow usage in 2023.
Christian Watson |Â WR Green Bay
Drafters are chasing upside, and Watson certainly oozes that. He is a small sample size big play weapon with three multiple TD games as a rookie. With WR being pushed up and up in the first and second rounds, Watson is likely to be an unpredictable player at ADP. He has risen from WR22 to WR18 in FFPC $350 Players Championship drafts. I recently saw he was selected at the 2.12. It’s hard to see him leaping DK Metcalf, but he should separate from veterans in his draft range like Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen.
Dalton Kincaid | TE Buffalo
Kincaid has not only moved inside the TE1 line as TE11, but there is also a growing gap between him and TE12 Chig Okonkwo. The positive Kincaid drumbeats continue in Buffalo, and he has a chance to challenge David Njoku for TE10 as the summer progresses.
Fallers
Dalvin Cook |Â RB Free Agent
Cook was a predictable ADP drop as Minnesota finally parted ways with him by releasing him this month. He was a top 20 RB in May and was routinely a fifth-round pick. Cook now finds himself unattached to a team and a seventh rounder in FFPC Drafts. With rumors that he could land in Miami, expect his ADP to correct when he signs. Seventh round feels like a cheap bargain.
Davante Adams | WR Las Vegas
Adams is starting to move further away from the first round. He is routinely selected around No. 16 overall. Adams is being passed over for younger WRs with more QB certainty, like Lamb, Wilson, and St. Brown. If the news on Jimmy Garoppolo’s health is further in question, we could start to see Adams jumped by younger upside selections such as Jaylen Waddle and Devonta Smith in some drafts.
Travis Etienne | RB Jacksonville
Etienne was a third rounder in May and now finds himself firmly in the fourth round. There are question marks- a lack of receiving usage and rookie Tank Bigsby eating into his workload. The Jacksonville offense should be solid, but drafters are displaying a great deal of caution. Etienne should remain in the fourth round during July unless we see a lot of pro-Tank Bigsby reports.
Kenneth Walker | RB Seattle
Look away, Kenneth Walker Dynasty Managers. What stage of grief are we at right now? Walker was a second round pick before the NFL Draft, an early fourth rounder in May, and now finds himself falling like a rock to the mid-fifth round.
More and more pro-Zach Charbonnet reports trickle in from Seattle. J.K. Dobbins has already passed Walker. Additionally, Mattison, Akers, and Sanders are all potential ADP threats in July.
Dallas Goedert | TE Philadelphia
Goedert has dropped out of the 4/5 turn range to squarely being available in the fifth round. I was recently able to select him in the mid-sixth round. Drafters are settling into TE comfort levels: Kelce in the top five overall, Mark Andrews in the second round, T.J. Hockenson in the third round, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts in the fifth round, and then Goedert and Waller flip-flopping positions depending on the draft. The top seven is settled, barring a summer surprise.
Michael Pittman |Â WR Indianapolis
Pittman was an early sixth-round pick in May. He has now fallen to the end of the sixth round and is headed to the seventh. Pittman has settled in as WR31 in a precarious position just ahead of potential July ADP steamers Treylon Burks and Kadarius Toney. Pittman has been a consistent source of low-end WR2 production the previous two seasons but is now in a potential volume squeeze with a rookie QB in a run-first offense. There is also a hip injury from OTAs to monitor.
