When it comes to the quarterback position, it is often wise to wait until the later rounds to draft one. This fantasy football draft strategy was made popular by J.J. Zachariason around 12 years ago, and he has built a brand around it. In this article, we will identify four QBs to target when implementing the late round QB fantasy football draft strategy.
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QBs to Target in Round 10 or Later
Trevor Lawrence (ADP – 118, QB 14)
I understand that Trevor Lawrence has disappointed fantasy gamers in the past. However, over the last two seasons he has been reliable (just not in the way that most people thought he would be). He’s finished as the QB 13 in fantasy points per game in 2023 and the QB 12 in fantasy points per game in 2022. This season is different for Lawrence in the sense that this offense is built on more speed than maybe he’s ever had.
The Jaguars added Gabriel Davis in free agency and Brian Thomas Jr. in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. This should open up the offense quite nicely for Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and even Travis Etienne. Additionally, this team passed a lot last season. With Lawrence under center the Jaguars ranked No. 6 in team pass plays per game (Lawrence ranked No. 8 in pass attempts amongst quarterbacks) and No. 2 in Pace of Play according to PlayerProfiler.
Rushing Upside
Lawrence is also going to give us something on the ground in terms of fantasy production. Over the last two seasons, Lawrence has ranked top 10 in carries twice. He ranked No. 9 in carries (70) amongst quarterbacks in 2023 and No. 10 in carries (62) in 2022. Lawrence has also ranked top 10 in rushing yards and top 7 in rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons as well.
The one number that doesn’t add up is the passing touchdowns. For a quarterback with as many pass attempts as Lawrence over the past two seasons, I would have expected more passing touchdowns. There is a chance that more explosive plays are coming for Jacksonville in 2024 thanks to the additions they have made on offense. If this happens, I would expect more passing touchdowns and for Lawrence to have his best season yet.
Jared Goff (ADP – 125, QB 16)
Goff is not going to give you anything from a rushing perspective. However, in his time with the Lions, Goff has been very effective, especially for fantasy. Last season, Goff finished as the QB 7 overall and the QB 11 in fantasy points per game. This is with the understanding that not much has changed with the Lions offense. The offensive line remains one of the best in the league. Additionally, the offensive weapons are going to be the same minus Josh Reynolds. I’m not sure why Goff can’t finish as a top 10 QB overall and a top 12 QB in terms of fantasy points per game.
The reason we like Goff so much is because he is going to throw the ball a lot. Last season, Goff ranked No. 2 in pass attempts according to PlayerProfiler (605). He ranked No. 9 amongst quarterbacks in Yards per Attempt. Additionally, he ranked No. 5 in True Completion Percentage amongst QBs. Goff even added two TDs on the ground which is not something we had seen him do in his time with the Lions. There is no reason that Goff shouldn’t be able to put up similar numbers in an offense that is mostly the same. Goff is not a sexy option. However, when implementing a late round QB fantasy football draft strategy, he is going to be reliable.
Kirk Cousins (ADP – 145, QB 18)
Sure, it’s a new offense, but it should be a similar scheme with Zac Robinson calling the plays in Atlanta. Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree which is where Kevin O’Connell also served as an assistant coach. Kirk Cousins also has an all-star cast around him with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson. Even Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore are good options in the passing game. Additionally, the Falcons have a very good offensive line (ranked No. 6 according to PFF).
Cousins was on pace a whopping 660 pass attempts last season. This would have been the most of his NFL career. I think we can count on a little less passing volume from Cousins given how good the running game should be in Atlanta. However, that doesn’t mean the Falcons won’t air it out a ton. This should be a complete 180 from how Arthur Smith ran the offense. This is going to be a good thing for both Cousins and the Atlanta pass catchers.
Over the past three seasons in Minnesota, Cousins ranked consistently within the top 10 in pace of play, pass attempts, and deep ball attempts. Cousins is also one of the more accurate passers deep down the field. If a quarterback is not going to give us much with their legs, which Cousins won’t, we want them to be as efficient with their passes as possible. Cousins is coming off an injury. That is a concern. However, if he’s fully healthy, there is no doubt that Cousins is one of the safest picks that can be made outside of the first 10 rounds at QB.
Baker Mayfield (ADP – 168, QB 22)
Mayfield is my “break glass in case of emergency” quarterback. Currently, he’s being drafted way too late. He is being drafted at pick 168, QB 22 off the board in Underdog drafts. Last season, Mayfield finished as the QB 10 overall and the QB 17 in fantasy points per game. He ranked No. 6 in pass attempts amongst quarterbacks, No. 1 in deep ball attempts, and No. 13 in pace of play. Mayfield isn’t a great runner as a quarterback. However, he will tuck and run more than you might think. Last season, Mayfield ranked No. 10 amongst quarterbacks in carries (62).
The Buccaneers are also returning most, if not all, of their weapons on offense, and they added some new depth behind some of those weapons in the form of Bucky Irving (Drafted in Round 4 of the NFL Draft) and Jalen McMillan (Drafted in Round 3). The Bucs also selected Graham Barton in Round 1 of the NFL Draft to help solidify their offensive line that is currently ranked No. 17 in the NFL according to PFF.
While Mayfield doesn’t have the upside to be a top five quarterback this season, he does have the upside to do exactly what he did last season, plus a tad extra. It would not shock me to see him finish as a top 12 QB overall and to make more of a push to be a top 12 fantasy points per game QB this season. If there is any offense that can elevate a quarterback, it is the Tampa Bay weapons with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rachaad White, and emerging weapons Trey Palmer, Jalen McMillan, and Cade Otton at tight end.
Conclusion
Waiting for a quarterback and implementing a late round quarterback fantasy football draft strategy can pay great dividends. All of the quarterbacks on this list are in great offenses and are primed to put up great numbers. The reason waiting on a QB is a great fantasy football draft strategy is because it allows fantasy gamers to load up on other positions while still being able to find quality production at quarterback.
