Fantasy football season is finally here, which is why I’ve updated my fantasy football rankings to help you get ready for your upcoming draft. I view fantasy football as a variant of sports betting. I’ve watched every snap, of every NFL game since 2014 to help inform my decisions in both betting and in the hundreds of fantasy drafts I do every year. Here’s how I view each player in my top 150:
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1-10
1. Christian McCaffrey (RB1): Historic producer that’s the centerpiece of one of the league’s best offenses.
2. Tyreek Hill (WR1): Until he loses a step, Hill is the best wide receiver in football.
3. Ja’Marr Chase (WR2): Tyler Boyd‘s departure opens up more opportunities in the slot, which could increase Chase’s already elite role.
4. CeeDee Lamb (WR3): Coming off a career year where Dallas was the league’s highest scoring offense. The Cowboys’ schedule is tougher this year with the AFC North’s high-caliber defenses on the docket.
5. Bijan Robinson (RB2): Arthur Smith’s exodus should give Bijan one of the league’s best running back roles. I have considered putting Bijan as high as second on this list.
6. Breece Hall (RB3): Hall led all running backs in receptions last year, and now he gets Aaron Rodgers with an improved offensive line.
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR4): St. Brown has 315 receptions through his first three seasons.
8. Justin Jefferson (WR5): Quarterback volatility makes Jefferson a riskier bet than the four receivers ahead of him.
9. Garrett Wilson (WR6): Fourth in the league in targets last season despite suffering from one of the league’s worst quarterback situations. The return of Aaron Rodgers will be a massive boost to Wilson’s efficiency.
10. AJ Brown (WR7): Brown has over 1,450 receiving yards in each of his two seasons in Philadelphia.
11-20
11. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB4): Dynamic talent that will share workload and cede scoring zone opportunities to veteran David Montgomery.
12. Puka Nacua (WR8): Coming off a historic rookie campaign, Nacua is the smart, reliable player that Mathew Stafford gets the most out of.
13. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR9): Harrison begins his career as Kyler Murray‘s standalone top target. The Cardinals easiest schedule stretch comes late, paving a path for Harrison to peak in the fantasy playoffs.
14. Drake London (WR10): Everyone in Atlanta benefits from the arrival of Kirk Cousins and the departure of Arthur Smith, but no one more than London.
15. Chris Olave (WR11): The Saints look like a potential dumpster fire, but Olave is their standalone top target that should benefit from Klint Kubiak’s new offense.
16. Jonathan Taylor (RB5): Among the favorites to lead the league in rushing, with a tremendous schedule stretch through the fantasy playoffs.
17. Nico Collins (WR12): Collins is becoming a bit overhyped as a talent and he has a ton of target competition in Houston. That said, he’s in a contract year and you can’t fade his upside in C.J. Stroud‘s offense.
18. Jaylen Waddle (WR13): Waddle has a rare combination of stable floor with WR1 overall upside if Tyreek Hill misses time.
19. D.J. Moore (WR14): Moore is coming off his most productive season, and he’ll play with the most talented passer of his career in Caleb Williams. Fierce target competition in Chicago is the only real concern for Moore.
20. Davante Adams (WR15): Adams has 180 and 175 targets in his two seasons as a Raider. Gardner Minshew getting the starting nod is a positive for Adams.
21-30
21. Saquon Barkley (RB6): Will run behind the best offensive line, in the best offense of his career by miles. Unfortunately, passing game volume and scoring zone opportunities will take a significant hit in Jalen Hurts‘ offense.
22. Josh Jacobs (RB7): A year removed from leading the league in rushing. Will play this season on the best, most well-rounded offense of his career.
23. De’Von Achane (RB8): I’m far more interested in Achane in tournaments than in standalone leagues, given his game-breaking upside. Keep in mind that the Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in football.
24. Malik Nabers (WR16): Daniel Jones is a separation thrower with excellent ball placement on in breaking routes like slants and drags. Nabers is a great match for what Jones does well.
25. Cooper Kupp (WR17): He’ll turn 31 in mid-June with highs of 812 receiving yards and 12 games over the past two seasons. He’s also on the short list of players that could lead the league in receptions.
26. Derrick Henry (RB9): Henry will turn 31 in January, but he’s in the best situation of his career, as Gus Edwards scored 13 times next to Lamar Jackson last season.
27. DeVonta Smith (WR18): One of the league’s most talented receivers looks like the third priority in the Eagles’ offense.
28. Kyren Williams (RB10): Coming off a monster year, but the arrival of rookie Blake Corum is concerning.
29. Isiah Pacheco (RB11): Passing game role rose dramatically last year with an even thinner running back depth chart behind him this season.
30. Travis Etienne (RB12): Averaged 19.1 touches a game last year, with Tank Bigsby as his primary reinforcement.
31-40
31. Michael Pittman (WR19): Overall passing volume is concerning, but Pittman has been rock solid in PPR for three straight years.
32. Brandon Aiyuk (WR20): Coming off a career year, but he has requested a trade out of San Francisco. That situation remains unresolved as of this writing.
33. Deebo Samuel (WR21): Like Aiyuk, Samuel’s fantasy value could be significantly impacted if one of the two receivers is moved.
34. Mike Evans (WR22): Tampa’s ageless wonder has breached 1,000 receiving yards in each of his ten seasons, posting the second-highest mark of his career last year. Do you want to pay the premium on a repeat performance with Baker Mayfield at the controls? I don’t.
35. DK Metcalf (WR23): Ryan Grubb’s new offense should lead to more purposeful opportunities for one of the league’s most explosive playmakers. The downside is Geno Smith is still his quarterback.
36. Josh Allen (QB1): The top fantasy producer at the position in three of the last four years. He was second in the other one.
37. Sam LaPorta (TE1): Fifth in targets among tight ends last season despite heavy competition in Lions’ offense. Last seasons’ 86/889/10 line could be LaPorta’s baseline over the next several years.
38. Travis Kelce (TE2): He’s still Patrick Mahomes‘ most trusted weapon, but Kelce will turn 35 in October, and he’ll have much more target competition this season.
39. Rashee Rice (WR24): Looks like Rice’s off field situation won’t be addressed until next season. Hollywood Browns’ injury will lead to more opportunities for Rice early in the year.
40. Jalen Hurts (QB2): Enjoys one of football’s best supporting casts, and he doubles as one the league’s best goal line runners.
41-50
41. Dalton Kincaid (TE3): Kincaid is the premium tight end I’m targeting with a realistic path to leading the position in targets this season.
42. Stefon Diggs (WR25): Declining player in the heaviest target competition he’s had in years, though he’ll likely benefit from slot-heavy role.
43. Christian Kirk (WR26): With Calvin Ridley in Tennessee, Kirk is Trevor Lawrence‘s best and most reliable wide receiver.
44. Tee Higgins (WR27): Highly motivated in a contract year with an MVP-caliber quarterback.
45. Tank Dell (WR28): Dell’s a talented player, but his volume should be the most negatively impacted by the arrival of Diggs.
46. Zay Flowers (WR29): Impressive rookie season has Flowers entrenched as top wide receiver in Baltimore.
47. Patrick Mahomes (QB3): After a down year by his standards, Mahomes’ wide receiver group is much deeper and faster this season. Could go coast to coast as the MVP favorite.
48. Joe Mixon (RB13): Positioned to have a bell cow role behind an above average offensive line, in an elite offense.
49. Rachaad White (RB14): Nearly 1,000 yards on the ground and 549 through the air in 2023. Drafters can still get him at a discount in many tournament formats.
50. Trey McBride (TE4): From Week 8 on, McBride was No. 3 among tight ends in targets in 2023. He now gets a full season with Kyler Murray.
51-60
51. James Cook (RB15): Over 1,500 total yards last season. Lack of goal line work could be an issue, but Cook could otherwise be an even bigger part of Buffalo’s offense.
52. Lamar Jackson (QB4): Has won two of the last five MVPs, but passing game volume is still significantly lower than Mahomes or Allen.
53. Mark Andrews (TE5): Likely to lead Ravens’ pass catchers in touchdown receptions.
54. Diontae Johnson (WR30): Reliable route runner that was brought in to be Bryce Young‘s top target.
55. Amari Cooper (W31): Remains a very reliable option, but 265-yard game against Houston inflated Cooper’s overall production last year. If DeShaun Watson returns to form, Cooper could blow his current ADP out of the water.
56. Chris Godwin (WR32): Has over 1,000 receiving yards in four of the last five years. He’s back in a slot-centric role, which is where he excels.
57. Alvin Kamara (RB16): Dennis Allen is making a habit of publicly blasting Kendre Miller, further securing Kamara’s position as the man in New Orleans’ backfield.
58. Kenneth Walker III (RB17): He’ll likely lead the Seahawks in carries but expect his passing game workload to be around 2.5 targets per game.
59. Anthony Richardson (QB5): Richardson is a dynamic talent who missed all but four games last year. Jalen Hurts‘ 2022 campaign with 35 total touchdowns and 760 rushing yards is what Richardson’s ceiling looks like.
60. Evan Engram (TE6): Finished No. 12 in the league in targets last year, and Calvin Ridley is now in Tennessee. However, Engram routinely goes in the sixth to seventh round.
61-70
61. Xavier Worthy (WR33): The long-term upside is tremendous, and Hollywood Browns’ injury creates a clear path to a greater early season role.
62. Terry McLaurin (WR34): Has proven to be quarterback proof with 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last four seasons.
63. Najee Harris (RB18): Arthur Smith is the kind of offensive play caller that likes grinders like Harris. Warren’s injury could lead to big usage early in the year for Harris.
64. George Kittle (TE7): One of the best overall tight ends of all time, Kittle is more of a spike game player than a consistent fantasy producer in San Francisco’s loaded offense.
65. Kyle Pitts (TE8): Like Drake London, quarterback and coaching upgrades could finally unleash Pitts who should see more work as a wide receiver as he did in college.
66. Calvin Ridley (WR35): Turns 30 this December after being good, but not great in Jacksonville last year.
67. Jayden Reed (WR36): The right skill set to lead Green Bay’s ascending offense in targets and receptions.
68. Keenan Allen (WR37): Allen is coming off one of the best years of his career, but he’s 32 with stiff target competition and a rookie quarterback. The ceiling is still considerable, but the floor is lower than it’s been in many years.
69. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR38): The new offense should be a positive for Smith-Njigba who is more valuable in full PPR formats.
70. Christian Watson (WR39): Among Green Bay pass catchers, Watson has the highest ceiling and the greatest spike week potential.
71-80
71. DeAndre Hopkins (WR40): He’s 32 years old, but he still commanded 137 targets last season. Passing volume will be on the rise in Tennessee this season, but Hopkins enters the year with injury uncertainty.
72. George Pickens (WR41): Talented player that meshes well with Russell Wilson‘s play extending abilities but expects a Drake London type role in Arthur Smith’s offense.
73. CJ Stroud (QB6): A bonafide MVP contender behind a rock-solid offensive line with one of the league’s most complete skill groups. Leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns is on the table for Stroud.
74. Aaron Jones (RB19): Will turn 30 this season, but Jones went on an absolute tear down the stretch last year. Limited backfield competition and volatile quarterback play could lead to considerable usage in the passing game.
David Montgomery
75. David Montgomery (RB20): Gibbs is the more dynamic player, but Montgomery likely leads the team in carries and goal line opportunities once again.
76. Jonathon Brooks (RB21): Among the top three rookie running backs, Brooks has the clearest path to a major role. He also comes with injury concerns and plays on a radically more volatile offense than either Corum or Benson.
77. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB22): Recently paid to be the centerpiece of one of the league’s most ill-built offenses.
78. Raheem Mostert (RB23): Mike McDaniel has a long history of being a ride the hot hand play caller at running back. This situation largely parallels Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit, with a far worse offensive line.
79. Kyler Murray (QB7): Dual threat option that is capable of MVP-caliber production. Arizona’s difficult schedule gets much easier after their Week 11 BYE.
80. Joe Burrow (QB8): MVP contender that is just a year removed from leading the Bengals to back-to-back AFC Championship games. A fact many seem to be overlooking.
81-90
81. Marquise Brown (WR42): Former first rounder took a bet on himself deal to play with Mahomes but enters the year with injury uncertainty.
82. Rome Odunze (WR43): Chicago may have the deepest and best wide receiver trio in football, which is why Odunze is ranked 50 plus slots after Harrison and Nabers.
83. D’Andre Swift (RB24): Chicago’s offense has a ton of potential, but their running back room could have three players with notable roles.
84. Jake Ferguson (TE9): Dallas didn’t add any significant skill players this offseason, which may benefit Ferguson more than anyone else.
85. James Conner (RB25): Exceeded 25 carries in three of his final five games last season.
86. Tony Pollard (RB27): A major disappointment last year despite playing in the league’s highest-scoring offense. Goes to a worse situation in Tennessee but is now a full year removed from a devastating leg injury.
87. Javonte Williams (RB26): Sean Payton has been historically more run-centric than most might expect, and Williams is positioned to lead the team in touches.
88. Zamir White (RB27): Positioned to have a major role in Raiders’ run-centric offense, which could be in the bottom five in overall scoring this year.
89. Brian Thomas Jr. (WR44): Premium athlete could finish the season as Trevor Lawrence‘s new top pass catcher, but that is a lofty expectation.
90. Chase Brown (RB28): Blocking issues led to a limited role his rookie season, but there is a clear path to fantasy relevance this season in a thin Bengals backfield.
91-100
91. Jaylen Warren (RB29): We get to relive the Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard conundrum with Warren and Harris in Pittsburgh, with Arthur Smith at the controls. Early season injury doesn’t help Warren with madman Smith calling the shots.
92. Jameson Williams (WR45): The talent is there for the former first rounder, but he’s been extraordinarily inconsistent despite playing in a high-end offense. If it’s going to happen for Williams, this is the year.
93. Ladd McConkey (WR46): Has a very clear path to leading Justin Herbert‘s offense in target share.
94. Blake Corum (RB30): A Kyren Williams injury away from being a league winner, with a real shot to cut into the veteran’s workload early in the year.
95. Jordan Love (QB9): Exceeded expectations last year supported by one of the league’s most well-rounded supporting casts.
96. Dak Prescott (QB10): Dallas failed to add any notable offensive weapons this offseason, and the Cowboys schedule is tougher this year.
97. Brandin Cooks (WR47): Declining speedster turns 31 in September but is positioned as the WR2 in a top-10 offense.
98. Zack Moss (RB31): Exceeded expectations last year with Jonathan Taylor sidelined, now he could lead Bengals running backs in opportunities.
99. Jayden Daniels (QB11): Dual threat rookie that could be selected much closer to Anthony Richardson in 2025 fantasy drafts.
100. Caleb Williams (QB12): Dynamic quarterback talent with a historic supporting cast for a first overall pick.
101-110
101. David Njoku (TE10): Very talented player, but keep in mind Njoku’s rise was fed by known tight end inflater Joe Flacco late last year.
102. Brock Purdy (QB13): Enjoys the league’s best supporting cast and showed last year that he’s capable of MVP-caliber production.
103. Devin Singletary (RB32): Positioned to lead Giants’ running backs in touches, but this is the worst offense Singletary has ever played in.
104. Courtland Sutton (WR48): The top option in Denver’s underwhelming passing attack.
105. Dallas Goedert (TE11): Target competition and overall passing volume cap Goedert’s already limited upside.
106. Tyler Lockett (WR49): Target competition is stiff in Seattle, and Lockett posted his lowest receiving yards output since 2017.
107. Josh Palmer (WR50): Sadly, the most proven producer among current Chargers wide receivers.
108. Khalil Shakir (WR51): Inconsistent through two seasons, but he’s shown flashes of being a valuable contributor. Big opportunity this year in Buffalo’s wide open wide receiver room, especially with Curtis Samuel already on the mend.
109. Rico Dowdle (RB33): Volume is a concern, but I’d argue that he was better than Tony Pollard late last season.
110. Jerome Ford (RB41): Not exactly awe-inspiring in relief duty last year. Will likely cede noteworthy ground work to D’Onta Foreman if Nick Chubb is sidelined. That said, Ford will run behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.
111-120
111. Austin Ekeler (RB34): Will run behind the worst offensive line he’s played with in years and should take a passing game volume hit with mobile Jayden Daniels.
112. Gus Edwards (RB35): Likely to lead run-centric Chargers in carries and goal line opportunities.
113. Ezekiel Elliott (RB36): Zeke’s best days are behind him, but he’s positioned to lead Dallas in both general and scoring zone carries.
114. Brian Robinson (WR52): Positioned to lead the Commanders in carries.
115. Tyjae Spears (RB37): Tennessee brought in Tony Pollard who has a similar skillset to Spears.
116. Curtis Samuel (WR53): The bull case for Samuel is that Buffalo has a wide-open receiver room and Josh Allen is the best quarterback he’s ever played with by miles.
117. Trey Benson (RB38): Blocked by James Conner, at least early in the year.
118. Keon Coleman (WR54): Big bodied rookie is more of a skill set replacement for Gabe Davis than Stefon Diggs.
119. Mike Williams (WR55): Availability has been a consistent problem but meshes well as Aaron Rodgers‘ second option.
120. Rashid Shaheed (WR56): Speedster that has been reliant on big plays to hit spike weeks.
121-130
121. Zach Charbonnet (RB39): A Kenneth Walker injury away from being a league winner, with some chance to organically earn a bigger role with Seattle’s new coaching staff.
122. Trevor Lawrence (QB14): Historic quarterback prospect has been good the last two years but hasn’t quite reached the heights expected of him.
123. Jared Goff (QB15): Solid veteran with one of the league’s best supporting casts.
124. Tua Tagovailoa (QB16): Still commands one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. On the short list of players that can lead the league in passing yards and touchdowns. Bottom five offensive line is concerning.
125. Jordan Addison (WR57): From off field issues to the quarterback uncertainty in Minnesota, Addison is a pass for me this season.
126. Jerry Jeudy (WR58): Disappointing former first rounder gets a new home in Cleveland where his future is dependent on Deshaun Watson returning to form.
127. Dontayvion Wicks (WR59): Talented second-year wide receiver is trending up. The problem is Green Bay has four wide receivers that warrant playing time.
128. Tyler Allgeier (RB40): A premium stash with standalone value in what could be a top-ten Falcons’ offense.
129. Justin Herbert (QB17): The Chargers’ bottom tier wide receiver room and expected run-centric offense is why a high-end quarterback like Herbert is ranked 17th overall at the position.
130. Brock Bowers (TE12): Vegas isn’t a great landing spot in the short term, where Bowers will compete with Michael Mayer for playing time in a below average passing offense. That said, Bowers was selected as early as he was for a reason.
131-140
131. Pat Freiermuth (TE13): Should benefit from thin wide receiver room, but overall passing volume in Arthur Smith’s attack is concerning.
132. Dalton Schultz (TE14): The clear fourth option in Houston’s passing attack.
133. Jakobi Meyers (WR60): Better than you might think 71/807/8 line last year, but still the second, if not third option in the Raiders’ bottom tier passing game.
134. Romeo Doubs (WR61): Touchdown-dependent fantasy option that is more replaceable than either Jayden Reed or Christian Watson.
135. Wan’Dale Robinson (WR62): Shifty route runner with at least 11 PPR points in three of his last five games.
136. Chuba Hubbard (RB41): Positioned to lead Panthers backfield early in the season but will likely cede work to rookie Jonathon Brooks as the year progresses.
137. Nick Chubb (RB42): Brutal knee injury has Chubb indefinitely sidelined, but if he returns, Cleveland has one of the league’s best offensive lines.
138. Ja’Lynn Polk (WR63): Could emerge as the top target earner in New England.
139. Luke Musgrave (TE15): Green Bay has one of the league’s most well-rounded offenses, which could keep Musgrave from seeing difference making volume.
140. Matthew Stafford (QB18): On the short list of players capable of leading the league in passing yards and touchdown passes. Just two years removed from finishing in the top three in both categories.
141-150
141. Jaleel McLaughlin (RB43): The most dynamic runner in Denver, but his small stature brings volume concerns.
142. Tank Bigsby (RB44): I outright faded Bigsby last season as I view him as an Alexander Mattison level talent. That said, he has little to no competition behind Travis Etienne in Jaguars’ backfield.
143. Khalil Herbert (RB45): Likely part of a fantasy unfriendly three-headed running back committee, but arguably Chicago’s best runner.
144. J.K. Dobbins (RB46): The floor is low given his injury history, but if Dobbins can return to form, he’s in an excellent position in a run-centric offense behind a top-10 offensive line.
145. Taysom Hill (TE16): In tournament formats where Hill has tight end eligibility, he needs to be targeted.
146. Jalen Tolbert (WR66): The Cowboys suddenly have a thin skill group behind headliner CeeDee Lamb. I wasn’t a huge fan of Tolbert as a talent coming out of South Alabama, but he has an opportunity to see significant playing time in Dak Prescott‘s offense.
147. Jaylen Wright (RB47): A handcuff for both Achane and Mostert, who both come with significant injury risk.
148. MarShawn Lloyd (RB49): Likely needs a Josh Jacobs injury to be a real factor this season.
149. Adam Thielen (WR66): Wildy exceeded expectations in the first half of last season, before cooling off significantly in the second half. The latter seems more indicative of future events.
150. Braelon Allen (RB 50): Looks like Breece Hall‘s clear-cut handcuff entering opening day.
