Welcome back to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. The sharks will be hearing takes revolving around players that have moved in this hectic NFL offseason. Gang… Fantasy Football Shark Tank: Episode 3.
Take No. 1 – Russell Gage Outscores Allen Robinson in PPR
On March 13th, the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady decided to return. Five days later (March 18th), the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Russell Gage to be their number three wide receiver (he will be the de facto number two while Chris Godwin is sidelined). Gage received a three year, $30 million contract. That tells fantasy team builders that Gage was brought aboard to be a legit contributor to their offense.
Russell Gage Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Over the past two seasons, Gage has seen 203 targets, caught 138 of those targets for 1,556 yards and added eight touchdowns. The former Atlanta wideout averaged 11.5 points per contest in PPR formats in that same span. He is a more talented wide receiver than most team builders realize. Last season, he logged a 29.2-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Dominator Rating, 71.0-percent (No. 14) Catch Rate, and 2.19 (No. 13) Yards Per Route Run. The Buccaneers gained a legit pass catching weapon.
Matt Ryan was solid (No. 16 in Target Accuracy and No. 20 in Catchable Target Rate), but Tom Brady is an upgrade (No. 4 in True Passer Rating and No. 2 in QBR). Gage and Brady share one particular ability: attacking man coverage. Brady finished with a 65.3-percent (No. 3) Man Coverage Throw Rate and a 66.4-percent (No. 2) Completion Percentage vs Man. Gage had a 29.5-percent (No. 12) Target Rate vs Man, 2.15 (No. 15) Fantasy Points Per Target vs Man, and a 47.3-percent (No. 12) Route Win Rate. Brady to Gage will be a great connection in 2022.
Allen Robinson
Allen Robinson certainly improved his situation in 2022 and beyond. He signed a multi-year offer to play wide receiver for the Los Angeles Rams. A-Rob will be tethered to the best quarterback he has ever played with for the foreseeable future.
Allen Robinson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Despite the upgrade in situation, he still needs to be more efficient if he is going to be a WR2 in fantasy. In every season in which Robinson finished better than WR30, he needed 150-plus targets. Without an injury to the Rams offensive passing game, he will fall short of that. A career year in touchdown receptions would even that out, but I am not one to bet on TDs. That is why Gage over Robinson in 2022.
To The Fantasy Football Shark Tank
Pending any unforeseen changes, neither wide receiver will enter the 2022 campaign as the primary option in their offense. But that may not be a major issue because both quarterbacks on these offenses can sustain multiple passer catchers. The Rams and the Bucs had three players each record 100 plus targets. The opportunities are there and the statistics are elite when it comes to these teams’ signal callers. Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford ranked top three in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2021.
Chris Godwin will return, which will reduce Russell Gage’s looks. That is going to be a problem for team builders who roster Gage. Allen Robinson needs one of two things to propel his fantasy production. He either needs his volume to be high or his efficiency needs to improve. With Robinson being attached to Stafford, that is absolutely possible. Odell Beckham caught five touchdowns in his eight fantasy relevant games (62.5-percengt) with the Rams. A-Rob racking up touchdowns is a higher possibility than Gage getting significant looks when Godwin returns.
That is why I am hesitant to invest heavily in this. 47-percent confidence.
Take No. 2 – Chase Edmonds Will Be a Top 20 PPR RB
Chase Edmonds is one of the winners of the NFL free agent frenzy. Edmonds signed a two-year deal with the Miami Dolphins. As it stands today, he will be the lead back for the fins. Finally getting a chance to display what he can do with the lion share of opportunities. In his stint with the Arizona Cardinals, he proved that he is efficient in the run game and a legit weapon in the pass game.
Efficiency Metrics
Chase Edmonds finished top 12 at the position in four key efficiency metrics in 2021. He had a 29.6-percent (No. 12) Juke Rate, 6.0-percent (No. 11) Breakaway Run Rate, 4.7 (No. 9) True Yards Per Carry, and 5.7 (No. 7) Yards Per Touch. He proved that he can be effective even without getting elite volume. This efficiency insulates his value because even if he isn’t getting bell cow touches, he can still perform for your fantasy squad. And if he gets more than just the strong side of any potential platoon, he can be a fantasy stud.
Passing Game Weapon
In PPR formats, Chase Edmonds can pack on the points because he is a weapon in an offense’s passing attack. For the Cardinals in 2021, he logged a 13.4-percent (No. 7) Target Share, 1.65 (No. 9) Yards Per Route Run, and an 81.1-percent (No. 9) Catch Rate. The Dion Lewis comp finished with 43 (No. 13) receptions last year despite missing four games due to an ankle injury. He is efficient, dangerous as a pass catcher, and simply good at football. That is why he will finish as a top 20 running back in ppr leagues in 2022.
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To The Fantasy Football Shark Tank
The Miami Dolphins backfield is currently made up of Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, and the deep bench players. Gaskin was a cog in the previous regime’s machine and Mostert is one of the most injury prone players in fantasy. This suggests that the opportunities will be there for Edmonds.
In 2021, Edmonds eclipsed a 50.0-percent Opportunity Share for the first time in his short career. That led to his first top 24 finish on a points per game basis in fantasy football. That sounds like the floor in Miami. Currently he’s ranked as PlayerProfiler’s dynasty RB39. He has ground to make up if he is going to crack the top 20.
I like the fit, I like the player, and I like the take. I will invest with 69-percent confidence.
Wrap Up
All three players that were discussed landed in beneficial situations. Allen Robinson, Russell Gage, and Chase Edmonds should all be targeted in 2022. Given their talents and their new situations it will be wheels up. Gage and Edmonds are prime to take their game to the next level. A-Rob is set up for a bounce back campaign.
Despite not being their new teams’ primary pass catchers, Gage and Robinson will get fantastic quarterback upgrades. And Edmonds is looking like he will get the first crack at being the Dolphins number one running back. It’s good process rostering any of these three players in the 2022 season.
That concludes Fantasy Football Shark Tank: Episode 3. Missed episodes one or two? Not a problem, click one of those links to catch up.
Share this with LIT-TURE-ALLY everyone you know and come on back for another installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.
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