Fantasy Football Sleepers | 4 RBs Being Drafted Too Low in the FFPC

by Aditya Fuldeore · Analytics & Advanced Metrics

As we enter re-draft and Best Ball season, draft boards and player ADP start to take shape. Every year, there are a few players that go under the radar with paths to smash their ADPs. In this piece, I discuss a few fantasy football sleepers at running back. These players are being drafted too low in drafts that fantasy gamers should look to target on platforms like the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

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Jerick McKinnon

In a signing that flew under the radar, Jerick McKinnon is back with the Chiefs. Last season, he was a release valve for Patrick Mahomes. With 9.1 (No. 4) Yards Per Reception on an 11.6-percent (No. 15) Target Share, McKinnon churned into fantasy relevancy in the fantasy playoffs. He averaged 1.37 (No. 1) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, finishing among the top-10 RBs in three of the last five games of the regular season. This included back-to-back weeks of the overall RB1 distinction in Weeks 14 and 15. With Workout Metrics all in the 92nd-percentile or better, McKinnon is a veteran to watch in Kansas City.

Jerick McKinnon Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The Chiefs added Deneric Prince to the backfield, but didn’t add a player to replace McKinnon, who can retain his role as the pass-catching back. Isiah Pacheco will be the downhill rusher, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to retain a sizeable role again. Mahomes’ favorite target behind Travis Kelce, McKinnon is slated for another high-target season. He finished with 11.5 (No. 26) Fantasy Points Per Game last season, putting him in the RB3 range. McKinnon is currently going around pick 130 in FFPC leagues, making him a good late round RB target.

Roschon Johnson

The Chicago Bears’ backfield has several players that can contribute to the rushing attack, but no definitive lead backs. Rookie Roschon Johnson comes in with a path to leading the Chicago backfield in touches immediately. Running behind Bijan Robinson in college, Johnson had 93 carries and 14 receptions in his final season at Texas. He has a bruiser build with the ability to catch passes out of the backfield as well.

D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer, and Trestan Ebner make up the rest of the Bears’ backfield. Foreman and Herbert are the biggest threats to amass touches out of that group. Foreman is a downhill rusher and hardly a receiver, seeing a 2.1-percent Target Share last season. Herbert is more of a receiver than Foreman but has yet to see over 140 touches in a season.

On a team that ran the second-most team run plays last season, Johnson will get a slice of a big pie. While Justin Fields‘ rushing abilities threaten red zone and short-yardage opportunities, Johnson’s ability to be a rusher between the tackles and catch passes will be valuable to Fields. Currently going around pick 120 in FFPC drafts, Johnson is sandwiched between Herbert and Foreman’s ADPs. Target the rookie RB in Chicago over the veteran backups for the most upside in seasonal leagues.

Gus Edwards

For the last two seasons, Baltimore has dealt with severe injuries to its backfield. As of this writing, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill are all expected to return at full health this season. Dobbins will be the lead back, but don’t discount Edwards who has never averaged less than 5.0 Yards Per Carry in a season. In nine games last season, he averaged 4.7 (No. 11) True Yards Per Carry while facing 7.4 (No. 1) average defenders in the box. Despite limited pass-catching upside, Edwards has proven rushing ability in a high-volume Baltimore rushing attack.

Edwards is competing with Dobbins and Hill for carries. Dobbins has had only three games in his career over a 60-percent Snap Share, all of them his rookie season. Hill is primarily a special-teamer and receiving back. This leaves a large portion of carries to Edwards, who saw double-digit carries in six of his nine games last season. He has historically been a guy drafted as a flex option with stand-alone value, and that value will only increase should Dobbins miss time again. Now an additional year removed from ACL injury and getting drafted past pick 200 in FFPC drafts, Edwards is an efficient back that comes far cheaper than Dobbins.

Malik Davis

Tony Pollard finally has the reign to being the RB1 in Dallas. As it stands now, Malik Davis and Deuce Vaughn are next up for RB touches behind him. Between the two, Davis has the best shot to get RB2 touches and gain fantasy relevancy. He has a small sample size, but in the two games last season where he reached over a 20.0-percent Snap Share, Davis saw double-digit touches in both games. With a 130.7 (94th-percentile) Burst Score, Davis is slated to prove his skills with a new opportunity in the Dallas offense.

Vaughn has a smaller frame than Davis and is unlikely to get a massive role as a day three rookie. He will take some pass-catching opportunities but won’t have more of a role than Davis had last season. The Cowboys averaged 31.2 (No. 5) Team Run Plays Per Game last season, and with Ezekiel Elliott gone, there are plenty of “vacated” carries. Both Elliott and Pollard hit 190 carries last season, so Davis has opportunity. He is a Pollard injury away from being an RB2 start. Currently being drafted around pick 250 in FFPC drafts, Davis is a cheap upside option to smash ADP.

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