Fantasy football season is upon us, and it’s never too early to talk 2024 fantasy football strategy. In this series, Theo Gremminger will break down the options at every draft position. In this article, he details the options at pick No. 2 in 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Previous Entries
The 1.01 2024 Fantasy Football Strategy – What to Do with the No. 1 Pick? (playerprofiler.com)
The Chalk
Christian McCaffrey goes off the board with the 1.01 in most leagues, and CeeDee Lamb settles in as the 1.02. Lamb occasionally goes No. 1 overall, and CMC falls to No. 2, but that is not the norm. It is easy to see why drafters have embraced Lamb. He led the NFL in targets (181) and catches (135). Lamb finished with 1,862 combined yards. His competition for touches isn’t nearly as bad as it was last year. In 2023, drafters were betting on a huge season from Tony Pollard, and Pollard steamed up to the late 1st/early 2nd round. This year, drafters are ignoring most Cowboys skill position players for multiple rounds after Lamb, with only Jake Ferguson being selected inside the top 30 at his position. Lamb could conceivably see even more targets this season.
At 25 years old, Lamb is in the sweet spot for WR production. Ageist drafters have no worries about an age-related breakdown that they fear with CMC and Tyreek Hill – the current chalk top 3.
The Pivot
Tyreek Hill is a weapon of mass destruction. He averaged 23.5 PPR PPG – a hair behind Lamb’s 23.7. A late-season ankle injury limited Hill down the stretch and caused him to miss one game. This could have been the difference between him finishing WR1 vs. WR2 overall. The metrics with Hill are stunning. He led the NFL with a 33.7-percent target share, 1,799 receiving yards, and was No. 1 in yards per route run with a sizzling 3.88.
The Miami offense is in stronger shape than Dallas’s offense. Miami’s offense has quality pieces all around. An easy argument can be made that Hill has way, way more competition for touches than Lamb. But make no mistake about it, Hill is Miami’s offensive focal point. Few players strike fear in the hearts of opposing defensive coordinators, and opposing fantasy managers, like the Cheetah.
Dark Horse Candidates
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall have the two-way ability at RB to break fantasy this season. Like Lamb, they are each younger players. Structurally, they are two of the best bets at the RB position. High volume and contrarian drafters can zig from the WR enthusiasm zag. With quality WR options available at the 1.11 and 2.02, an RB start out of the 1.02 is viable.
Younger Alpha WR options like Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown will be like a siren call for WR focused drafters who want to bet on a new finisher at WR1 overall. We have not seen a repeat WR1 overall in over 20 years, but Cooper Kupp did finish No. 1 overall in PPR PPG for two straight seasons.
The Final Decision
Lamb is not only the correct choice at No. 2 overall, but he is my 1.01. Lamb is a threat to break Marvin Harrison‘s (Senior and not MHJ!) record for targets in a single season. The WR1 overall has led the NFL in targets and receptions for three straight seasons. Lamb looks like the best bet to lead the league in both categories.
Structurally, selecting Lamb at the 1.02 sets drafters up for multiple options and builds. With the Dead Zone being pushed down, the touch competition for Lamb is the least impressive among all players routinely drafted in the top 5 overall.
Check out Theo’s Dead Zone RB Article Here – Fantasy Football Strategy – Navigating the RB Dead Zone (playerprofiler.com)
Hill has to deal with a healthy Jaylen Waddle as well as De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Robinson (Drake London, Kyle Pitts) and Hall (Garrett Wilson) both have highly drafted skill position teammates. Dallas not only wants to feature Lamb early and often, but they have to. 25 PPG is in the range of outcomes for Lamb this season. Draft him whenever you can.
