Fantasy Football Draft Strategy - Year 2 Breakouts Candidates

The PlayerProfiler Staff is putting their best fantasy football draft strategies into each and every one of these collaborative articles. This articles focuses on Year 2 Breakout Candidates fantasy gamers should be focused on during fantasy drafts this year! Win your league with the PlayerProfiler Staff!

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Matty Kiwoom – QB Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

There is no shortage of valid second year breakout candidates, but it is time to talk about Will Levis. After falling into the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, it was important for the signal caller to make a good impression once he was given the opportunity to play. In Week 8 of the NFL season against the Atlanta Falcons, Levis did exactly that! Levis finished with 238 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Despite finishing with mediocre surface stats, Tennessee saw enough arm talent and ability that they have given him the keys to the car for 2024. That confidence is exactly why Will Levis will breakout in his sophomore season.

This offseason, the Titans have gone above and beyond to ensure that Levis has the weapons to succeed. Starting with the decision to bring in an offensive minded head coach in Brian Callahan. Callahan was behind the success of Jake Browning in 2023 after Joe Burrow was injured. He also brings his father, Bill Callahan, who is a legendary offensive line coach which is fantastic after selecting Peter Skoronski in Round 1 of the 2023 draft and JC Latham with the No. 7 overall pick this year. The Titans also bolstered up their wide receiver room by signing Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley. Even without these upgrades, Levis posted a 10.4 Air Yards per Attempt (no. 1 amongst qualified quarterbacks) and a 57.9-percent Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate (no. 2). Between the quarterback’s arm talent and upgrades to all aspects of the offense, Will Levis is the prime candidate to be a second-year breakout. And given his super low opportunity cost (QB 24 off the board), getting Levis on the squad is a dub.

Jason Allwine – QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

I’m taking the easy way out and going with the man himself – Anthony Richardson. It’s hard to find higher upside than the 6-4, 244-pound QB that runs a 4.43 who also has a cannon for an arm (albeit a little inaccurate). Richardson’s best comparable player is Josh Allen for a reason. However, last year did highlight one big concern. That concern is Richardson may be injury prone as he runs into contact. Richardson suffered two injuries in his four games last year. One of those was the season-ending AC Sprain in Week 5. However, I am going to bet that he has learned a lesson about his play style. Also, the Colts bringing back Jonathan Taylor shows that the franchise doesn’t want Richardson running with total abandon.

What we saw last season was undeniable. He had two games where he played at least three quarters and scored 20+ fantasy points in both of them. And in the week he picked up his concussion, he scored 17.7 points in a half. Richardson is clearly a star if he can remain healthy. He has solid weapons in Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, and Jelani Woods. Shane Steichen was a really good coordinator in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. And last year, even Gardner Minshew was reliable enough to make the offense work. Anthony Richardson is even younger than Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams as he’s only 22. Scoop him up in Dynasty. But also take your swings on him in Redraft as he has the upside to totally carry a roster to the championship with an ADP of QB6.

Matt Babich – RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

Coming out of Tulane, many questioned Tyjae Spears NFL outlook due to his college ACL injuries. We knew his 90th-percentile Burst Score would translate his explosive play ability to the next level. We knew that his upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, rushing efficiency, and receiving volume would make him a competent satellite-plus back. What we weren’t sure of was his ability to stay on the field. However, he put these claims to rest in his rookie season. Spears played in 17 games and racked up 150 touches behind Derrick Henry.

Spears flashed excellence as a rusher, racking up an impressive 7-percent (No. 5) Breakaway Run Rate, 26-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 4.2 (No. 26) True Yards per Carry. That’s far from all. The rookie garnered a 14.7-percent (No. 7) Target Share to the tune of 1.5 (No. 11) Yards per Route Run. Only finding the end zone three times, Spears finished as the RB38 in Fantasy Points per Game. Spears is expecting a massive touch increase this season from the Derrick Henry departure to the massive offensive upgrades the Titans made in the offseason. In spite of this, Spears is being drafted outside of where he finished last season. To quote the movie Pretty Woman: “Big Mistake. Huge.” With a realistic path to a top-24 season, capitalize on the market inefficiency with this electric playmaker.

Seth Diewold – QB Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

2023 wasn’t kind to Bryce Young. To be honest, the fantasy community should have seen this coming. There was no support at all for the 2023 No. 1 overall pick, and it showed on the field. The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranked No. 30 in sacks given up per game (they averaged 3.8 sacks given up per game according to TeamRankings.com). As a result in 2023, Young finished as the QB 23 in total fantasy points and the QB 29 in fantasy points per game with Adam Thielen as his leading receiver. However, 2024 might be a different story.

The Panthers are doing everything they can to support their No. 1 overall pick. They signed two offensive guards, one of them to a 100-million dollar contract, traded for Diontae Johnson, and drafted Jonathon Brooks, Xavier Legette, and Ja’Tavion Sanders. We might not agree with all of the moves, but it’s all good news for Bryce Young. Young is currently QB 20 in Keep Trade Cut’s Dynasty Superflex Rankings and QB 25 (194 overall) in Underdog Fantasy ADP. At that price, he is well worth taking a shot on as a QB 2 or 3 for fantasy teams in dynasty, best ball, and redraft, and he has a great chance of breaking out in Year 2 with a new coach.

Theo Gremminger- Kendre Miller RB New Orleans

Last season, second-year RBs were cheat code for drafters. Breece Hall finished as RB2 overall, and Rachaad White, Kyren Williams, and James Cook joined him inside of RB1 land. A whopping nine of the top 22 scorers at the RB position were Year 2 running backs. While there are certain no-brainer options at the tops of drafts like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Devon Achane, there is another second-year back who is flying under the radar who could be in line for a breakout season.

Kendre Miller had a disappointing rookie year; playing in only eight games as the New Orleans was an offense that was very much in flux. However, this season he is primed for a bigger role in said offense. Kamara is another year older, and the Saints didn’t go out of their way to add backfield competition for Miller. Sure, Jamaal Williams is there, but he was one of the worst running back last season from an efficiency standpoint. Miller has much more juice in an offense that is going to need to keep up with the Buccaneers, Titans, and what will be an improved Panthers team within the division.

For more from the PlayerProfiler Staff, check out this article – Fantasy Sleepers – 5 Rookies to Draft in 2024 Fantasy Football (playerprofiler.com)