There is so much change going on around the NFL this week, with Davante Adams being traded to the Jets, Amari Cooper being traded to the Bills, and Russell Wilson potentially starting for the Steelers. Let’s take a look at some surprising stats and who are the top targets to buy and sell in fantasy football trades ahead of Week 7.
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Fantasy Football Week 7 Buy Trade Targets
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Metcalf started off the season on fire with three straight 100+ yard receiving games, but he has tailed off the last two weeks. Still, he is seeing a 23-percent target share for the most pass-heavy offense in the league through six weeks. Metcalf had a 52-yard bomb touchdown nullified in Week 6 due to an illegal formation penalty and another touchdown where his toes were an inch or two out of bounds. The 11-target outing that ended with just three catches for 48 yards could’ve been much bigger.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are leading the league with a 68.5-percent pass rate, and Metcalf is the go-to guy. Geno Smith is on pace for over 5,000 passing yards but is converting just 2.4-percent of his passes into touchdowns. That number is likely going to positively regress toward the league average of around 4.5-percent, and that means more touchdowns for his receivers — Metcalf included. Remember, we’re talking about a guy who has led the league in end-zone targets since entering the league in 2019. Buy DK Metcalf as a top-12 receiver for the rest of the season.
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
There have been few players as frustrating to roster in fantasy football this year as George Pickens. Just as it feels like things are trending upward, he brings you back down with another disappointing performance. As his value is seemingly headed towards rock bottom, there are some reasons for hope. It is being reported that Russell Wilson will be taking first-team reps for the Steelers at practice and will likely start this Sunday. This is great news, as Wilson was near the top of the league in on-target throws last season and threw for 26 passing touchdowns. To put that into perspective, that’s 1.73 touchdown passes per game, more than double the 0.83 that Justin Fields is currently throwing.
We also know Russ likes to throw to big-body wide receivers with his history of targeting DK Metcalf and Courtland Sutton over the past few seasons. Pickens ranks third in the league in target share at 28.9-percent. However, his 69.4-percent catchable target rate ranks just 47th among qualified wide receivers. This is not a prediction that he will be a top-15 wide receiver, but he is currently dirt cheap out there with the upside to be a low-end WR2 or flex play with weekly upside.
De’Von Achane (RB, MIA)
Achane would’ve been better off on your bench over his last three games without Tua Tagovailoa. However, the Dolphins have a beautiful schedule for running backs coming up, facing five straight opponents ranking in the bottom 12 of fantasy points allowed to the position. Remember, Achane averaged 26.3 points per game with Tua through the first two weeks, with a 19-percent target share. The latest reports are that Tua is expected to be back around Week 8. Now is the time to pounce on the stud running back who has disappointed for the past month.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Sell Trade Targets
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Baker and this Bucs offense have been on fire this season, averaging the second most points per game as a unit at 29.7. The resurging quarterback ranks second in points at the position, only behind Lamar Jackson. His dominance should continue against a Ravens defense that is susceptible to quarterbacks in Week 7, but his 7.9-percent touchdown rate is going to be hard to sustain. If you can flip him to a quarterback-needy team and bolster a roster weakness while adding a guy like Geno Smith, you may be thanking yourself in a few weeks. This is not a must-sell situation but rather a sell HIGH!
Travis Etienne (RB, JAX)
Etienne’s value is incredibly low, but he is still a sell! He’s currently week-to-week with a hamstring injury. His snaps have been trending down the last few weeks, with Tank Bigbsy and D’Erneest Johnson getting run and looking good. Etienne has looked like the inferior back in Jacksonville, and Bigbsy has been one of the best in the league as a runner this season.
This could be a changing of the guard as next year will be Etienne’s last year under contract and he has appeared in some trade rumors. Regardless of that speculation, Etienne’s efficiency metrics have been poor, and the eye test doesn’t look much better. He has just one game over 60 scrimmage yards this season and has finished as a top-20 running back just once, as he was exactly the RB20. It’s time to cut your losses and include him in a package deal for his name value.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta has been a waiver-level tight end all season. He housed his lone reception in Week 6, potentially creating a sell-high opportunity. He has just a 10-percent target share on the season, likely due to Jameson Williams‘s increased tole. LaPorta’s season-highs through five games are four catches and 53 yards, and he’s scored just one touchdown. If you can use his name and last season’s production to sell high, do it.
The Bottom Line
Things don’t always turn out the way we expect in fantasy football, in fact, most of the time they don’t. Who would’ve guessed that Geno Smith would be leading the league in passing yards, and Baker Mayfield in passing touchdowns? It’s important to take these stats with a grain of salt and not overreact, but at the same time, adjust our expectations and make moves to push toward a championship. Go out there and improve your team any way you can, and don’t be afraid to “lose” a trade. What looks like a loss on paper could be the move that ultimately puts you over the edge.
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