Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 1: Is It Over For Raheem Mostert?

by Ted Chmyz · Uncategorized

The first NFL Sunday, and Fantasy Football Week 1, is officially in the books! As always, after an offseason of grinding film, dissecting coach speak, and making projections, everyone was wrong. However, it’s important not to overreact to Week 1 — it takes multiple weeks for in-season fantasy scoring to be more predictive of rest-of-season performance than preseason ADP. 

On the other hand, it’s also important not to underreact, especially with low-risk, high-reward plays. This is the most important waiver wire week of the season every single year. And while fantasy points themselves may be very volatile, other key data points, especially usage numbers, are already very important. With that in mind, let’s dive right in to the top 10 takeaways from Week 1. 

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 1

1. Tight End Panic Meter

This was a truly terrible week for tight end scoring. Pending Monday Night Football (George Kittle and Tyler Conklin), only three TEs have reached double-digit Half-PPR points … and only one of those was started in most leagues. Essentially every single highly drafted tight end disappointed, so here is a quick breakdown of some top tight ends’ usage and how worried fantasy managers should be going forward:

  • Travis Kelce: Kelce was outscored by fellow Chiefs TE Noah Gray in fantasy football Week 1, but he still led KC in routes run. Panic Rating: 1/10
  • Sam LaPorta: LaPorta’s 79 percent snap share was his lowest number in a competitive game since Week 7 of last season, although most of that difference was in non-passing situations. I was down on LaPorta coming into the season, but this game doesn’t move the needle much. Panic Rating: 2/10
  • Trey McBride: McBride’s stat line wasn’t great, but he saw a 30 percent target share. Panic Rating: 0/10
  • Mark Andrews: Andrews played a snap share near his usual mark and ran more routes than Isaiah Likely. However, the younger TE easily outplayed the veteran. We can make some matchup-based excuses, as the Ravens’ gameplan was clearly affected by the Chiefs’ pass rush and Andrews was often double-teamed, but this was still bad. Panic Rating: 6/10  

Kincaid, Pitts, Engram

  • Dalton Kincaid: As with LaPorta, I was worried about Dalton Kincaid‘s usage heading into this season. To a certain extent, he addressed those worries, playing a career-high 84 percent of snaps with Dawson Knox healthy (he averaged 58 percent with Knox healthy as a rookie). However, it’s still not great that he saw just one target for a five percent target share. Panic Rating: 3/10
  • Kyle Pitts: Pitts actually finished with a solid fantasy football Week 1 outing — largely thanks to a blown-coverage TD, but we will absolutely take it compared to every other TE’s performances. He also played a career-high 96 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps. While the Kirk Cousins half of the Falcons’ offensive revolution isn’t looking so hot, the “no more Arthur Smith” half looks great for Pitts. Panic Rating: 0.5/10
  • Evan Engram: Engram ran just 19 routes on 26 Trevor Lawrence dropbacks, a 73 percent rate, down from 82 percent in 2023. He may also struggle for targets with Christian Kirk healthy and Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis both heavily involved. Panic Rating: 3/10

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Breakout Season Isn’t Dead Yet

At first glance, things don’t look good for last year’s No. 20 overall pick. Coming into this season, the hope was that JSN would pass over Tyler Lockett as the Seahawks’ WR2 and break out as a weekly fantasy option. Instead, Smith-Njigba saw just two targets on Sunday, while the 31-year-old Lockett led the team with six catches on seven targets for 77 yards. 

However, not all hope is lost. In 2023, JSN posted just a 71 percent route participation rate, while Lockett and DK Metcalf were at 83 percent and 82 percent, respectively. On Sunday, the sophomore ran a route on 25 of Geno Smith‘s 28 dropbacks, 89 percent, while Metcalf ran 26 routes and Locektt ran just 20. 

On the other hand, two targets is two targets, and even those two targets came on a minuscule 3.5 ADOT, which was a big issue for Smith-Njigba as a rookie. It’s also worth noting that Lockett dealt with an injury in camp, so his role may expand. But if JSN can remain second on the team in routes as Lockett gets healthy, he still has a chance to break out.

3. It’s Veteran Bell-Cow Season in Cincy, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh

Coming into the season, the Bengals, Titans, and Steelers each had a pair of running backs being drafted near to one another in the middle rounds of drafts. Fantasy managers were uncertain what to expect from these backfields, with most projecting some level of committee for each team.  Instead, we got very clear answers as to which back each team prefers.

For the Steelers, Jaylen Warren saw just four touches (two carries and two targets) on a 31% snap share, while Najee Harris racked up 20 carries and two targets of his own. Warren is back to pure handcuff status, while Najee is a must-start weekly option as long as this split continues.

The Bengals relied on the veteran Zack Moss over the sophomore Chase Brown. Moss played 33 snaps to Brown’s 17, including the lone goal-line snap and seven of nine third-down snaps. Brown was more involved than Warren, with three targets and three carries, but he is also nothing but a handcuff for now, especially with the Bengals’ offense struggling.

Tennessee was perhaps the team most widely expected to use a true 50/50 split. This was probably because their OC literally said that’s what they would do.

Instead, we saw a classic early-down vs. passing-down split. Tony Pollard racked up 16 carries and four targets on 39 snaps and added a goal-line TD. Tyjae Spears played in the two-minute drill and on 12 of 13 third downs, finishing with just four carries and four targets. Spears should have more productive outings in games where the Titans trail (which they look likely to have a fair few of), but Pollard is the clear back to target for now.

4. It’s Not Veteran Bell-Cow Season in Jacksonville and Tampa Bay

Two teams that managers weren’t expecting committees from were the Jaguars and Buccaneers, as Travis Etienne and Rachaad White were both being drafted well before their next closest RB teammates. After one week, that’s not looking so great. 

White, who was second in the NFL with a 76-percent RB rush share in 2023, finished with just six more carries than rookie Bucky Irving, 15 to nine. Even more concerning is that Irving recorded exactly twice as many yards despite his smaller share of carries. To be fair, White still racked up 75 receiving yards on six catches, and he did have better usage before the game got out of hand. But White has been the league’s least efficient high-volume back over the last few seasons, relying on a high number of touches to maintain his fantasy RB2 status. If Irving continues to outperform him on the ground and cuts further into his workload, things could go south quickly.     

Etienne doesn’t have the same efficiency red flags as White. In fact, it’s Etienne’s backfield-mate, Tank Bigsby, was arguably the worst running back in the league in 2023: 

Tank Bigsby Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

But Tank looked like a new back on Sunday, racking up 73 yards on 12 carries. Meanwhile, Etienne also saw 12 carries but finished with just 44 rushing yards. Etienne did score a touchdown, but he also fumbled out of the end zone. After the fumble Bigsby actually out touched him five to three. Unless he immediately re-asserts himself as the Jaguars’ lead back, Etienne looks destined to disappoint fantasy managers while Bigsby is worth stashing.   

5. The Texans’ Three-Headed Wide Receiving Monster  

One of the biggest questions heading into this season was who out of Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell would emerge as reliable fantasy options. It’s very rare for an offense to support three top fantasy receivers, but all three members of this group were being drafted as top 30 WRs. 

We didn’t really get an answer in Week 1. We did learn that the Texans plan to play 11 personnel early and often. This is good news for Tank Dell, who often left the field in other situations. He still managed to finish with 33 routes on 38 C.J. Stroud drop backs, while Diggs and Collins finished with 34 and 32, respectively. 

However, this even distribution of routes and heavy use of 11 personnel is quietly bad news for all three receivers. Having three very talented receivers on the field consistently will make it hard for any one player to separate as a consistent fantasy producer. We even saw the beginnings of that in this game: all three saw between six and eight targets, with Collins being the only member of the trio to eclipse 40 yards. Diggs, who played primarily from the slot and had just a 1.7-yard ADOT, scored two touchdowns, meaning Dell was the odd man out this week. But that will likely change from week to week, with all three being high-ceiling, low-floor options that could be frustrating to roster in shallow managed leagues.  

6. Anthony Richardson Doesn’t Have to Be Good to Be a Fantasy God

Richardson finished his season debut with a very impressive 26.08 fantasy points … and he only completed nine passes. Two of those nine completions were massive touchdowns of over 50 yards, and he added 56 yards and another TD on the ground. Even crazier, Richardson missed Adonai Mitchell twice on what could have been two more massive touchdown passes. 

If you’re an optimist, those two missed TDs show that Richardson’s ceiling is somehow much higher than what he has done so far. If you’re a pessimist, his 47-percent completion percentage, 14.2 percent below expected, shows that he simply isn’t a good passing quarterback yet. Both are true. Richardson probably has a few down games in his future, but his superhuman abilities make his weekly ceiling so high he is a must-start regardless. 

7. Keon Coleman Is Already the Bills’ WR1

The Bills’ receiving game was wide open heading into this season following the departures of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs. There was clearly room in Buffalo for someone to emerge as Josh Allen‘s top target and a weekly fantasy start, but whether that person would be Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, or even Marquez Valdes-Scantling was unclear. 

At first glance, fantasy football Week 1 didn’t provide much of an answer. No receiver played more than a 73-percent snap share or recorded more than 51 yards. Nine players had between one and four receptions. However, under the hood, things are looking very good for Coleman. Despite being a rookie in his NFL debut, Coleman led the team in routes (27) and targets (five). The Bills used a run-heavy approach, so those numbers actually convert to a very impressive 90 percent route participation rate and a solid 23 percent target share. Allen also looked Coleman’s way twice for 50/50 jump balls in the red zone, which is a great sign for future touchdown production. 

Normally, rookies come on as the season progresses. Coleman starting as the top target in what should be an elite offense is a great sign, and he is someone I would trade for now before the price goes up.

8. Jaleel McLaughlin is the Thunder?

Following the release of Samaje Perine, it was clear that Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin would lead the Broncos’ backfield. And that was the case on Sunday … but not in the way most expected.

McLaughlin, who measured just 5-8 and 187 pounds at the NFL Combine, led the team in early-down snaps and carries in fantasy football Week 1 (10). Williams, whom most expected to be the primary rusher, finished with just eight carries but played every single snap in the two-minute drill and the majority of third downs. On the other hand, McLaughlin still saw five targets to Williams’ one, while Javonte dominated short-yardage situations. 

Jaleel McLaughlin Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

It’s hard to know what to make of this usage, which may just be a fluke of a small one-week sample but seems to somehow result in neither back having a fantasy-friendly role. Given how much the Broncos struggled to move the ball, the safest move for now is to stash both backs on your bench if possible. After all, they combined for just 51 yards on 25 opportunities on Sunday. 

9. Kenneth Walker’s Usage Was Great

It’s hard to tell by his final numbers in fantasy football Week 1 because he exited early with an abdomen injury, but Walker saw elite usage in the first game of the Seahawks’ new regime. Most excitingly, he played consistently on third downs and in the two-minute drill, which he did not do in 2023. Assuming he’s healthy, Walker looks set for a breakout RB1 season in his expanded role. If not, Zach Charbonnet, whose usage was minimal before Walker’s injury, becomes a must-start. 

10. The Dolphins’ Offensive Line is Very Bad

In 2023, the Dolphins led the league with 5.1 yards per attempt. Their two lead backs, De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, averaged over 1.4 yards before contact per attempt. On Sunday, that duo averaged just 2.1 yards and 0.87 yards before contact per carry. 

Achane, who needs just one big play to have a productive outing and also caught seven passes on Sunday, should survive this issue, although his ceiling may be lowered. Mostert, on the other hand, is in trouble. He saw fewer carries than Achane (10 to six) and even missed out on the team’s lone goal-line carry. If he doesn’t have the TD equity he had last season, he’s unlikely to be a fantasy starter behind this much-worsened O-line. 

Conclusion

Fantasy Football Week 1 might be in the books, but it doesn’t mean that your fantasy season is over. It also doesn’t make you the champion just yet. Stay tuned to this article for the best takeaways from each week to best position yourself for a fantasy football championship!

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