Fantasy Football Week 1 is here! Which players should you strongly consider playing in your flex this week?
Starting Off Strong
The start of the NFL season is the most wonderful time of the year. No longer is there room or space for debates, what ifs, or might be’s. The snap of a pigskin on the gridiron with twenty-two men on the field is where all of a fantasy manager’s hopes and dreams become reality. And while the most important way to win the draft is by taking the best players in the early rounds, winning in-season requires smart and savvy start-sit decisions in the FLEX.
This weekly article will identify three players outside the top 50 projected FLEX starters who will “win” the FLEX. How do we define “winning” the FLEX position? If a player earns at least 12.5 points in half-point scoring, that’s a “win.” Anything less than that will be a loss. There will be one player outside the top 100 in projected points for the week which is my long-shot, double-or-nothing score. Throughout the season, I’ll both offer the players I think will “win” the FLEX each week and update how I did last week as part of accountability. Let’s start fresh with Week 1.
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WR Diontae Johnson – Carolina Panthers
Diontae Johnson is ESPN’s 54th ranked player in projected fantasy points for Week 1. He may be rostered in 90-percent of ESPN leagues, but at this writing Johnson is only expected to start in 20.5-percent of those leagues. There are a few reasons for fantasy managers to be skeptical. For one, Johnson struggled to stay healthy in 2023, playing his fewest games in a season of his career. Johnson’s 87 targets and 51 receptions marked career lows. However, it wasn’t all bad for Johnson. He still ranked among the top 24 in wide receiver target share, top 13 in Air Yards Share, and top 29 in Yards Per Route Run.
Johnson has shown to be a target-hog in the past. From 2020- 2022, Johnson earned no fewer than 140 targets in a season, and never fell below a 27-percent target rate. Now Johnson is healthy and headed to the Carolina Panthers with former No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young at quarterback along with new head coach Dave Canales. Canales turned around the careers of both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Canales’ rhetoric all offseason regarding the offense has centered around getting the ball to Diontae Johnson as a first read.
When Canales turned around Geno Smith‘s career, DK Metcalf set career highs in targets and receptions. When Canales turned around Baker Mayfield‘s career, Mike Evans posted his highest reception, target, and yardage totals since 2018. With major questions surrounding other parts of the Carolina Panthers offense, Johnson will be the go-to guy for Bryce Young— especially out of the gate.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is the 63rd projected FLEX player and is only 15-percent started in ESPN leagues. JSN had perhaps the worst 93-target campaign in NFL history. Somehow JSN only averaged 10 yards per reception and earned 569 air yards on those targets. But now Shane Waldron is gone. Ryan Grubb will be implementing the offense that helped Washington to earn a college football playoff championship appearance. Let’s not forget JSN was in conversation for the WR1 overall in the 2023 NFL rookie class before fracturing his hand just before the start of the season.
The hand fracture, along with bizarre on-field utilization, led to JSN nearly face-planting in Year 1. But Year 2 will be different. Not only is there optimism with a new head coach, but there were strong signs of Tyler Lockett slowing down in 2023. Lockett had his fewest receiving yards since 2017. Additionally, he ranked No. 50 among WRs in terms of yards after the catch.
In fact, there has been a video montage created to illustrate that Lockett now refuses to fight for extra yardage after the catch. Lockett will turn 32 in the matter of weeks. While he is a reliable possession receiver, JSN offers the Seahawks a 99th-percentile agility score and dynamism downfield. The reason Smith-Njigba is intriguing is because both Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant have been dealing with injuries recently. While both Lockett and Fant are expected to play, a healthy JSN projects to be leaned on heavily in Fantasy Football Week 1.
RB Zack Moss – Cincinnati Bengals
Moss is the 97th projected player and projected to start in only 7.3-percent of ESPN leagues. This is wild. Moss played very well last year for the Indianapolis Colts in Jonathan Taylor‘s absence. In the eight games Moss earned 10+ carries, he averaged 15.6 PPR ppg. Additionally, it appears as though Chase Brown will be working even more on special teams. This signals that Moss should earn the bulk of carries and may get goal line work. Moss ranked No. 13 among all RBs in 2023 in terms of Red Zone touches.
With Joe Mixon now a Houston Texan, that leaves more than 70 Red Zone touches up for grabs from 2023. And, even if Chase Brown earns a majority role on 3rd down, some of Mixon’s 64 vacated targets will also go to Moss.
Specifically for Fantasy Football Week 1, the implied game total favors the Cincinnati Bengals by nine against the New England Patriots. A favorable game script means more Red Zone opportunities for Moss and a decreased projected pass-rate in the second half of the game.
BONUS: WR Josh Palmer – Los Angeles Chargers
Palmer is the 106th projected player and expected to start in 0.8-percent of ESPN leagues. In the three games both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams did not play in 2023, Josh Palmer averaged 14 PPR ppg, 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 68 receiving yards. While Jim Harbaugh’s offense is known to be run-heavy, rookie WR Ladd McConkey is the only other meaningful WR that may earn targets… eventually. Expect Palmer and Herbert to lean on chemistry in Fantasy Football Week 1.
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