It feels like the season just started, but we are already approaching the business end of the fantasy football year. With playoffs starting in as few as four weeks, it has never been more important to lock into every change in usage and situation across the league. Week 10 also brought a surprising amount of change for being this late in the season, as injuries, benchings, and breakouts abounded. Let’s dive into 10 of the most important fantasy football takeaways from Week 10’s action.
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 10
1. Audric Estime Takes Javonte Williams’ Job
After playing at least 50-percent (and usually 60-percent) of the Broncos’ available snaps in every prior week of the season, Javonte Williams saw his snap share plummet to 31-percent this week. Even worse, he handled just one rushing attempt, while rookie Audric Estime saw 14 and Jaleel McLaughlin recorded two.
To be fair, Williams still had a clear role in this backfield in Week 10. He was the passing-down back, leading the group with a 24-percent route participation rate, which he turned into two targets. Unfortunately, that level of receiving involvement is obviously nowhere near enough to make up for his sudden complete lack of rushing work. Hold him one more week in case this week was a one-off, but he’s droppable in most formats if he sees this usage again in Week 11.
Meanwhile, Estime, who is available in over 95-percent of leagues, should be the hottest waiver pickup of the week. At the very least, he has flex value if he just steps right into the role Williams was playing. If the rookie can improve on Williams in workload (possible) or efficiency (likely), he has upside to push for the RB2 conversation.
2. The Gus Bus Returns to His Usual Route
Gus Edwards had missed each of the Chargers’ last four games with an ankle injury, but he returned in Week 10. In a big blow to plenty of last-place Best Ball rosters, his return immediately resulted in rookie Kimani Vidal finding himself a healthy scratch. As for what he did on the field, Edwards played just 25-percent of snaps, but he carried the ball 10 times to J.K. Dobbins‘ 15.
Importantly, Edwards actually out-rushed Dobbins, averaging a very solid 5.5 yards per carry. Prior to his injury, Edwards was performing like one of the worst rushers in the NFL, while Dobbins started the season very hot. Since then, Dobbins has cooled down, meaning there’s room for Edwards to expand his role if he can maintain above-average efficiency. He’s worth adding in most leagues as a handcuff with the potential to carve out flex value.
For his part, Dobbins still dominated receiving downs with a 65-percent route share and three targets. He also handled two of LA’s three goal-line rushes (special teams RB Hassan Haskins scored a late touchdown from the one-yard line, but I’m choosing to believe this was just the Chargers giving him a shot against his former team). He should absolutely be downgraded moving forward, but Dobbins is still an RB2 as long as he can hold onto this lead role.
3. DeAndre Hopkins’ Role Stops Growing
After he exploded for eight catches, 86 yards, and two touchdowns in Week 9 on just a 62-percent route participation rate, it looked as though DeAndre Hopkins was set to dominate in Kansas City. Hopkins even drew a comparison between his pairing up with Patrick Mahomes and Randy Moss joining Tom Brady on the Patriots in a (since-deleted) Tweet.
It’s not off the table that the 32-year-old provides WR1 numbers down the stretch, but it’s looking far less likely after Week 10. Instead of continuing to ramp up, Hopkins’ route participation rate went down this week to just 59-percent. This is despite the Chiefs trailing for most of the game in an important divisional matchup. He still led the team’s WRs in targets with five (an 11-percent share), catching four for 56 yards, but this is not the encore fantasy managers were hoping for.
There’s still a chance that Hopkins’ usage expands as he grows familiar with the Chiefs’ offense. But there’s also a real chance that the reigning Super Bowl champs are happy to use the veteran who is playing through an MCL tear sparingly. After all, it doesn’t seem like it’s physically possible for them to lose a game regardless. Unless he starts to trend upwards ASAP, playing part-time snaps will make Hopkins more of a boom-or-bust WR3 than a locked-in elite play.
4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is Inevitable
The Saints came into this season with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed as their top two receivers, backed up by Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, and Bub Means. Olave, Shaheed, and Means, are all on IR, while Wilson (shoulder) was also out in Week 10. That meant the Saints turned to Tipton and, more successfully, veteran journeyman Marquez Valdes-Scantling to serve as their top two WRs.
MVS actually started the season on the Bills’ roster, but he was released by Buffalo following their trade for Amari Cooper. He landed in New Orleans and made his presence felt with three catches for 109 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday. Valdes-Scantling also led New Orleans’ WRs in routes, although his 59-percent participation rate still left a lot to be desired.
Looking forward, I do think Valdes-Scantling is someone worth adding in deeper leagues. The Saints can’t build a passing offense entirely out of Alvin Kamara dump-offs, and if there’s one thing Derek Carr can do, it’s throw a deep ball. MVS is unlikely to ever be a consistent weekly option, but he could be a boom-or-bust flex play, especially if that route participation rate expands.
5. Tony Pollard’s Time as a Workhorse is Over
For the last three weeks, with Tyjae Spears sidelined, Tony Pollard absolutely dominated the Titans’ backfield. He posted an 84-percent snap share with over 20 carries and four targets per game. Spears returned that week, and that elite usage was immediately vaporized.
Pollard played just 53-percent of snaps to Spears’ 47-percent and carried the ball nine times to the sophomore’s two. Spears played more in passing situations and with the Titans trailing in the second half, but the duo actually posted identical 42-percent route participation rates. They combined for a 30-percent target share, with Pollard seeing four targets to Spears’ three.
The Titans played only one snap inside the Chargers’ 10-yard line, a third-down pass snap played by Spears, so we don’t have much to go on in terms of red zone usage. But this overall looks much closer to a 1A/1B committee than a workhorse/backup duo. Considering the Titans’ overall offensive woes, both of these backs may be hard-pressed to be more than flex options going forward.
6. Mark Andrews is Back (For Now)
I can’t be certain, but there’s a real chance that Mark Andrews‘ fluctuating usage is the subject I have covered most often in this column this year. Andrews has had much better production of late, but very mediocre route participation rates still implied that his bounce-back was unsustainable … until now.
With Isaiah Likely sidelined this week, Andrews posted an 86-percent route participation rate, by far his best of the 2024 season. That number is even above his healthy average of 79-percent from last year. Unsurprisingly, he also posted a new season-high in target share at 21-percent. That equated to seven targets, of which he caught six for 68 yards and a touchdown.
Of course, the lingering question hanging over this blurb is when will Isaiah Likely return. There’s a chance that Andrews has performed well enough in recent weeks to maintain a dominant workload even with Likely healthy, but nothing we’ve seen indicates that as of yet. Likely is dealing with a hamstring injury and didn’t practice in even a limited fashion in the lead up to Week 10 (the Ravens played on Thursday), so he may miss another week or two. While he’s out, Andrews can be considered a weekly TE1 again … but this may also be a sell-high window.
7. Jauan Jennings (And Some Guy Named Christian McCaffrey) is Back
Coming out of their bye week, the 49ers’ offense was the healthiest it has been in a long time. And the inarguable star of the game for San Francisco was Jauan Jennings, who led the team in route participation rate (88-percent), targets (11, for a 31-percent share), receptions (seven), and yards (93). Jennings simply continues to show out when he is on the field. He now ranks No. 7 among qualified WRs in PFF Receiving Grade and No. 6 in yards per route run. I don’t think it’s overreacting to call him a WR2 going forward.
Of course, Jennings’ return wasn’t actually the biggest story of the week for the 49ers. Consensus first-overall fantasy pick Christian McCaffrey also returned to the field after missing the first nine weeks of the season with Achilles tendinitis. CMC was immediately back to his old self in terms of usage, playing 87-percent of snaps, handling 13 of 15 RB carries, and racking up seven targets for a 19-percent target share.
But McCaffrey wasn’t himself in terms of efficiency. He averaged just 3.0 yards per carry and 2.08 yards after contact per attempt while failing to record a single missed tackle forced or breakaway run. Obviously, this is a minuscule 13-carry sample. I’m not ready to call CMC washed just yet. But this is worth monitoring — not having the efficiency to go with his elite usage would bump McCaffrey from RB1 overall consideration to merely RB1 consideration.
8. T.J. Hockenson Isn’t Quite Back (Yet)
T.J. Hockenson had a massive impact for the Vikings on Sunday, catching eight of nine targets, including five of five on third down, for 72 yards. However, his route participation rate was still just 67-percent. That’s a step up from 53-percent in his Week 9 debut, but it is still well below his 79-percent average in 2023.
Even that 79-percent number underestimates the role we can hope to eventually see, as Hockenson posted a route participation rate above 82-percent in six of his final seven healthy games last season. For context, Trey McBride leads all tight ends in route participation rate for this season at 84-percent, while Travis Kelce is second at 78-percent. Hockenson is clearly still capable of earning targets in this offense. If his route participation climbs back to his 2023 average or the incredible numbers he was posting just prior to his injury, he could be a top-tier fantasy tight end down the stretch.
9. Is Jalen Coker the New Nick Westbrook-Ikhine?
If you’ve been reading this article (or just about any other article I’ve written) over the last few weeks, you know that I have been drooling over Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine‘s route participation rates. Beginning in Week 8, the Titans changed from a WR-by-committee approach to the most condensed route distribution in the league. That switch has massively elevated Ridley’s fantasy production and turned NWI into a borderline flex option.
This week, the Panthers followed that trend. Coming into this week, there was only one instance of any Carolina player recording a route participation rate above 85-percent (Xavier Legette in Week 7). On Sunday, there were three, and they were all rookies. 32nd-overall pick Legette led the way at a near-perfect 96-percent, while UDFA Jalen Coker (89-percent) and fourth-round TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (86-percent) were also hugely involved.
Coker, who last week was the Panthers’ WR3 behind Legette and David Moore, also led the team with eight targets, a 32-percent share, although he caught just three passes for 41 yards. Legette caught three of his four targets for 40 yards, while Sanders saw only two targets but caught both for eight yards and a touchdown.
Clearly, none of this trio is lighting the world on fire just yet, and the Panthers’ offense is one of the few in the league that can match the Titans in futility. But, as those same Titans have shown, simply being on the field for nearly every passing play usually leads to some fantasy production. If this continues, Legette is a weekly flex play, while Coker and Sanders are both intriguing bench stashes. Don’t go crazy, however, as the potential returns of Adam Thielen (for Coker) and Tommy Tremble/Ian Thomas (for Sanders) would throw a wrench in these new roles.
10. Justin Herbert is On Fire
After three straight weeks of positive pass rates over expected, Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman went back to their old ways with a pass rate 7.9-percent below expected on Sunday. However, that didn’t stop Justin Herbert, who posted his fourth straight top 15 weekly finish thanks to a rushing touchdown.
We can’t expect Herbert to score a rushing TD every week, so his only having 18 passing attempts is a red flag for his fantasy outlook. However, he did complete 14 of those 18 attempts for 164 yards and a touchdown. This continued an absolutely monstrous stretch for Herbert, who has been the best quarterback in the league over the last four weeks. According to Fantasy Points Data, he leads the NFL with a 10.3-percent hero throw rate and hasn’t had a single turnover-worthy throw since Week 7. PFF agrees that Herbert hasn’t had a single turnover-worthy play and ranks him No. 1 over that span with an absolutely absurd 94.4 Passing Grade.
Actionable Advice?
With all that said, I don’t know how actionable this advice is. Yes, Herbert has been a top 15 fantasy QB in each of the last four weeks, but he has yet to crack the top six in a given week. Playing like the best quarterback in the league on 25 attempts per game isn’t worth much for fantasy. However, Herbert is still available in nearly 50-percent of leagues, and the Chargers’ schedule does take a turn for the better (in terms of QB matchups, anyway) going forward. If they return to a bit more of a pass-heavy approach, and he maintains this efficiency, Herbert could easily be a weekly QB1 down the stretch.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
