Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 13: Bucky Irving Dominates the Panthers

by Ted Chmyz · Fantasy Football

Is it just me, or is it already hard to remember the Thanksgiving slate of games from Fantasy Football Week 13? A full 11-game Sunday slate, plus the craziness of the holidays, and I have almost forgotten that Jonnu Smith is officially the Dolphins’ WR1. We are also into Week 14, which is the final week of byes and (for most leagues) the final week of the fantasy football regular season. It’s crunch time, so let’s go back over the most important takeaways from Week 13’s 15 games (not counting MNF). 

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 13

1. Bucky Irving’s Breakout Day

Irving ran all over the Panthers to the tune of 26 Half-PPR points. However, I fear that the fantasy space may be overreacting to his huge outing against a terrible Panthers defense. On the bright side, Irving did set season highs in carries (25) and RB rush share (69-percent). He also saw three targets to Rachaad White‘s one. It’s also encouraging that Sean Tucker did not play a single offensive snap after being used in a short-yardage role last week. 

However, I don’t see any real indication that this was a true changing of the guard in Tampa. Irving still played just 53-percent of snaps (not a season-high) and ran two fewer routes than White. While 25 rush attempts is very enticing, that number is more a factor of the game script than anything else. Irving’s 69-percent RB share isn’t some huge outlier. He has already posted a share above 52-percent four times this season. Don’t get me wrong, I love Irving, and the Buccaneers’ schedule is set up for him to absolutely smash down the stretch. But I don’t think White is going anywhere just yet as the 1B in the backfield. 

2. Jonathon Brooks is Just Alive Enough to Hurt Chuba Hubbard

In his NFL debut in Week 12, Jonathon Brooks played a grand total of five snaps. This week, that number jumped to 14. He also handled six carries and earned three targets. This role is nowhere near enough for him to be fantasy-relevant, but it is enough to hurt Chuba Hubbard‘s value. 

With 12 carries, Hubbard posted just a 67-percent RB rush share. This was his lowest mark since all the way back in Week 2 when Miles Sanders was still a relevant member of this backfield. Hubbard had previously posted an elite 85-percent+ RB rush share in each of the previous seven weeks. This was a big departure from the norm. On Sunday, he also failed to record a single target. This is the first time that has happened since Week 7. His 50-percent route share was his lowest of the last four weeks and second-lowest since Week 4. 

To be fair, Hubbard still posted an elite 81-percent snap share, and even that 50-percent route share was the No. 14-highest among RBs for the week. I also wouldn’t be surprised if his rush share was dragged down by the negative game script. With that said, it’s clear that Brooks is more of a factor than Sanders was in this backfield. Hubbard’s usage has fallen from truly elite to just great, and it may not be done falling. He is a much riskier play as long as this trend continues.

3. Aaron Jones’ Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day (With a Game-Winning TD)

Last week, Aaron Jones re-established himself as a dominant force in the Vikings’ backfield with an excellent 88-percent RB rush share. This week, he fumbled on his first touch of the game … and then again on his fourth touch. After his second fumble, the veteran running back recorded just four more touches. On the bright side, one of those touches was a game-winning touchdown reception, so his dog house at least has windows.

Still, we have to downgrade Jones moving forward. He has now fumbled at least one time in each of the last three games — perhaps not coincidentally, the three games since he suffered a rib injury. It’s a good sign that Kevin O’Connell went back to him with the game on the line. However, it’s still very concerning that he finished with just five carries (a 45-percent RB rush share), only two of which came after the second fumble. This is a situation to monitor going forward. 

4. The Commanders’ Backfield Without Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler, who has been consistently involved in his first year in Washington, was placed on IR this week after suffering a concussion at the end of the Commanders’ Week 12 game. That means he will be out until at least Week 17, leaving a hole in Washington’s backfield for the most critical fantasy weeks of the season.

Brian Robinson is the obvious candidate to take on more work with Ekeler sidelined, but Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez should also be involved. On Sunday, Robinson led the group with 16 rush attempts and a 46-percent snap share. Rodriguez was second in both marks, but that is very misleading. The vast majority of Rodriguez’s usage came in garbage time with the Commanders up big.

Looking at just the first three quarters of this game should give us a clearer indication of what to expect from this group going forward. In that span, Robinson was the clear leader in snap share (62-percent), RB rush share (70-percent), and route participation rate (37-percent). McNichols handled six carries (26-percent share) on a 35-percent snap share and posted a 23-percent participation rate. Rodriguez was hardly involved, recording one carry on just two snaps. Robinson is a weekly start, while McNichols may be able to carve out fringe flex appeal.

5. The Chargers’ Backfield Without J.K. Dobbins

Ekeler wasn’t the only RB to head for IR this week. Dobbins is also out for the foreseeable future with a knee sprain. With Dobbins out, Gus Edwards should be the Chargers’ lead RB going forward. He led the team’s backs in snaps (52-percent), carries (six, for a 55-percent share), and routes (28-percent) on Sunday. 

However, Edwards’ role is certainly not ideal. Rookie Kimani Vidal and former Titan Hassan Haskins were both involved against the Falcons. Even before Dobbins was injured, Haskins was tied for the team lead with three goal-line carries since Week 9. LA didn’t have any goal-line snaps this week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Haskins is heavily involved there going forward. Meanwhile, Vidal ran just three fewer routes than Edwards. Even fullback Scott Matlock saw a target out of the backfield.

Going forward, Edwards is still the clear running back to roster and consider for your lineups. But his role looks far from ideal, and he hasn’t been particularly efficient this season. He will need some very favorable game scripts to have big outings.

6. It’s Over For Kyle Pitts (Part 27)

In my time covering fantasy football, I’ve written at least a dozen obituaries for Kyle Pitts. I’ve also written an equal amount of resurrection hype pieces, as his usage has fluctuated wildly over the last few years. Unfortunately, we are now back in the “Kyle Pitts is dead” stage of the cycle. 

With a 63-percent route participation rate on Sunday, he has now been at or below a 66-percent participation rate in three of the Falcons’ last four games. Across those four games, he has averaged just an 8.3-percent target share, with only one week in double digits. Unsurprisingly, this hasn’t resulted in fantasy production, as he is averaging 2.6 Half-PPR points since Week 9. 

This doesn’t seem likely to change, either, as Falcons HC Raheem Morris didn’t seem particularly worried about Pitts’ recent lack of production. With a surprising amount of decent option at the position, Pitts is not a TE1 going forward.   

7. Maybe Benching Young Quarterbacks Actually Works?

I don’t think that watching Andy Dalton/Joe Flacco struggle actually contributed, but it’s undeniable that both Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young have found more success after spending a few weeks on the bench before returning to their teams’ starting jobs. PFF grades aren’t everything. However, they tell a story of dramatic improvement for both QBs. Young’s Passing Grade has jumped from a truly putrid 31.8 pre-benching to an above-average 80.2 post-beching (and an excellent 86.4 over the last four games). Richardson has gone from 49.5 to 82.9. 

Now, I’m not sold on either of these two quarterbacks ever turning into franchise options (although stranger things have happened). However, these improvements do have big fantasy implications. Richardson’s accuracy issues haven’t disappeared. Therefore, his weapons don’t benefit too much. However, increased rushing volume and success have him back on the QB1 radar.

Meanwhile, Young is dealing to the extent that Carolina’s pass-catchers are suddenly worth considering for fantasy purposes. Adam Thielen, David Moore, Xavier Legette, and even Tommy Tremble (who posted an absurd 98-percent route participation rate on Sunday!) are all on the radar. Young himself was the fantasy QB6 this week and is worth considering for at least the Week 17 rematch with the Buccaneers.  

8. The Giants & Cowboys Have Bell Cows

As I said, Thanksgiving’s slate feels like a lifetime ago now. But we should still take notice of something that happened in this matchup of NFC East rivals, as both teams leaned heavily on a single running back.

For the Cowboys, Rico Dowdle played 71-percent of the offensive snaps, by far his season-high with Ezekiel Elliott active. His 41-percent route share was also a new high-water mark for games with Elliott available. Dowdle also posted an 85-percent RB rush share, trailing only last week’s 86-percent for his highest mark of the season. He’s a weekly play as long as this usage continues, even as the Cowboys’ offense implodes.

At the same time as Dowdle’s big day, Tyrone Tracy was consolidating the Giants’ backfield. He played 75-percent of the snaps and posted a 59-percent route participation rate to Devin Singletary‘s 10-percent. A 56-percent RB rush share does put a slight damper on the excitement here, but we can find optimism in the fact that Singletary didn’t touch the ball a single time in the second half. His usage isn’t as good as Dowdle’s (yet?), but the rookie is explosive enough to be playable as the clear 1A in this backfield.   

9. Ladd McConkey’s Breakout Day

With the rest of their pass-catchers trending in the wrong direction, the Chargers attempted to build the whole plane out of Ladd McConkey on Sunday. The rookie had an absurd 50-percent target share and a 60-percent first-read target share. He finished with nine catches for 117 yards — the rest of the Chargers combined for fewer catches (eight) and less than a third as many yards (33). Oh yeah, and McConkey did all this despite exiting early with a knee injury.

Looking forward, that knee injury is the only reason to feel anything other than ecstatic if you have McConkey on your fantasy football rosters. The Chargers just keep leaning into this pass, with a positive pass rate vs. expectation in six of the last seven games. Justin Herbert is cooking, and McConkey is far and away his best target. He is a must-start as long as he is healthy. 

10. Isaac Guerendo is the Last RB Standing in San Francisco

I originally had this spot slated to be a full breakdown of Tommy Tremble (that’s how excited a 98-percent route participation rate from a TE gets me). But I can’t not mention the news coming out of San Francisco, where both Christian McCaffrey AND Jordan Mason are now headed for IR.

Guerendo, a fourth-round pick in this year’s class, is now set to lead the 49ers’ backfield the rest of the way. With the 49ers’ in a tailspin, this spot isn’t as league-winning as it might seem at first glance. I also expect that we will see a solid dose of Deebo Samuel, some Patrick Taylor, and a lot of Kyle Juszczyk on passing downs. But Guerendo could still be a legit RB1 for the rest of the season — this is a “drop 100-percent of your remaining FAAB” situation. 

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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.