Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 14: Christian McCaffrey is a System RB

by Ted Chmyz · Fantasy Football

What a way to end the fantasy football regular season. Josh Allen dropped 50, the Vikings exploded, and Zach Charbonnet and Isaac Guerendo showed why handcuffs are so important at this time of year. 

On a related note, now that we are officially into the fantasy playoffs, I will be changing the focus of my takeaways to make sure they are actionable. That means, as impressive as it was, Josh Allen‘s explosion won’t get a blurb — trade deadlines are long gone, and you’re starting Allen every week if you have him. Instead, I will focus on players either on the border of lineups (for Start/Sit decisions) or the border of rosters (for Add/Drop decisions). With that in mind, let’s get right into it!

Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 14

1. *Insert 49ers RB Here* Has Big Game, Gets Injured

With Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey on IR, Isaac Guerendo took over as the 49ers’ top RB this week. The fourth-round rookie immediately disproved any concerns that he wouldn’t see a true RB1 workload, racking up 17.0 Half-PPR points on nine carries, two targets, and a 70-percent snap share … in the first half. 

Guerendo’s full-game splits aren’t quite as impressive because he exited early with a foot injury, leaving Patrick Taylor to handle mop-up duty (and score a TD of his own) as the 49ers took care of the Bears. There’s a chance that the injury turns out to be minor and Guerendo doesn’t miss any time, but I recommend adding Taylor just in case (although Israel Abanikanda is also worth keeping an eye on). If anything was proved this week, it was that San Francisco’s RB1 is a must-start option, no matter who they are.  

2. Maybe Route Participation Rate Isn’t Everything

I have been very down on both DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper since they were traded to the Chiefs and Bills respectively, as neither veteran WR has been on the field consistently in their new home. That trend continued this week, as neither Hopkins (64-percent) nor Cooper (59-percent) saw any positive movement in terms of route participation rate.

However, they did see positive results where it mattered, as both led their respective teams in targets en route to solid fantasy days. Hopkins caught four of nine targets (24-percent target share) for 32 yards and a touchdown, while Cooper caught six of an absurd 14 targets (38-percent target share) for 95 yards. 

Going forward, I’m still a bit skeptical of this duo of veteran WRs. Cooper obviously won’t maintain the absurd 58-percent target per route run rate he posted this Sunday, and Hopkins is averaging just 9.2 points per game since his huge explosion in Week 9. With that said, if they’re capable of leading their teams in targets in these part-time roles, they’re not must-bench options. 

3. Isaiah Davis vs. Braelon Allen Without Breece Hall

While Guerendo and Charbonnet showed the potentially league-winning value of handcuffs, Braelon Allen was perhaps a lesson in not taking things too far. With some excellent performances early in the season, Allen was quickly enshrined as a top-tier handcuff. Since then, there have been some slight warning signs — the Jets’ offense as a whole has underperformed, Allen himself slowed down after his hot start, and Isaiah Davis was more involved even with Breece Hall healthy. 

Hall was ruled out this week, and Allen immediately rocketed up Week 14 running back rankings. But instead of consolidating the Jets’ backfield, he found himself stuck in a near-perfect 50/50 split with Davis. Allen narrowly led in snaps (56-percent to 52-percent), carries (11 to 10), and route participation rate (43-percent), while Davis had the edge in targets (six to five). 

That’s enough usage, especially in the passing game, that both backs can be viable — they finished this contest with solid scores of 10.1 points (Allen) and 14.2 points (Davis). But neither is a must-start like Allen may have been if Hall missed time early in the season. 

4. Bell-Cow Chuba Hubbard is Back

In a brutal turn of events, rookie RB Jonathon Brooks re-tore his ACL on Sunday, just three games after returning from the torn ACL that ended his college career.

Meanwhile, Raheem Blackshear also exited early with a chest injury. This left Chuba Hubbard as the Panthers’ only healthy RB, and his usage was unsurprisingly excellent: 26 carries and five targets on a 97-percent snap share and a 78-percent route participation rate. 

Going forward, the Panthers will certainly add another RB or two to their active roster, and there’s also a chance that Blackshear returns. But we can expect Hubbard to return to, at the very least, the elite usage he saw before Brooks was activated off the IR. With Bryce Young playing at a much-improved level and some decent matchups going forward, Hubbard will be essentially a must-start for the entire fantasy football playoffs.

5. Bell-Cow Tyrone Tracy Jr. Has Arrived

Hubbard may have led all RBs in Week 14 in both snap share and route participation, but Tyrone Tracy wasn’t far behind in either mark. The rookie played 84-percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps and ran a route on 66-percent of Drew Lock‘s dropbacks, both excellent numbers. That route participation rate was a season-high, which also turned into a season-high eight targets for Tracy as the Giants played from behind. He also handled 16 carries to Devin Singletary‘s two for a dominant 89-percent RB rush share. 

With usage like this, Tracy is a borderline must-start. The only thing keeping me from giving him that designation without hesitation is the Giants’ overall offensive incompetence. In a Week 15 matchup with the Ravens’ excellent run defense, there might be better options. But, if he maintains this usage next week, slam him in for Week 16 against the Falcons and Week 17 facing the Colts.

6. Bell-Cow Sincere McCormick Has Arrived?

Tracy wasn’t the only rookie to dominate their backfield this week. Sincere McCormick, who is only technically a rookie, having been on the Raiders’ practice squad since 2022, handled 15 of the team’s 16 RB rush attempts on Sunday. He did play only 59-percent of snaps, as Ameer Abdullah was still heavily involved on passing downs. But McCormick also managed a 24-percent route participation rate, catching both of his two targets. According to Fantasy Points Data, he finished with 15.7 expected Half-PPR points — just ahead of Saquon Barkley.

Going forward, McCormick’s situation isn’t entirely clear. It wasn’t long ago that he wasn’t even on the Raiders’ active roster, and both Alexander Mattison and Zamir White may return at some point. However, McCormick has been by far the Raiders’ most effective rusher all season.

Meanwhile, Vegas has a decently appealing schedule for the fantasy playoffs, with home games against the Falcons and Jaguars followed by a trip to New Orleans. It probably won’t feel good starting him with your season on the line, but McCormick might be just who your deep-league team needs to finish strong. 

7. Jaylen Warren Overtakes Najee Harris

Jaylen Warren outsnapped Najee Harris on Sunday for just the second time all season and the first time in a Steelers win. Harris still dominated work on the ground, 16 carries to Warren’s nine, but his 14-percent route participation rate was by far his lowest of the season. He saw zero targets, while Warren saw four on a 48-percent route participation rate.

This is particularly concerning for Harris because the Steelers have an absolutely brutal set of matchups in the fantasy playoffs, facing the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs. The Chiefs and Ravens give up the fewest and second-fewest rush yards per game to RBs, while the Eagles rank eighth in rushing yards allowed to RBs for the season and third since their bye in Week 5. With Warren dominating receiving work and brutal matchups on the ground, Harris will be a very risky start for the entire fantasy football playoffs.

8. 34-Year-Old Adam Thielen … League Winner?

Since his return to the field in Week 12, Adam Thielen ranks No. 17 among WRs with 13.9 Half-PPR points per game. It’s sustainable, too, as he ranks No. 18 in targets per game and No. 13 in total air yards. In fact, his role is only growing, as he has gone from a 70-percent route participation rate in Week 12 to 78-percent in Week 13 to 85-percent on Sunday.

This isn’t unprecedented, as Thielen performed like a legit WR1 for the first half of 2023. And that was with a much worse version of Bryce Young than the one we have seen over the last few weeks. Thielen is very much in play as a weekly starter going forward. 

9. Jalen McMillan Finally Does Something

McMillan, a third-round rookie out of Washington, has had an undeniably disappointing rookie year. Despite finding himself in a dream opportunity with both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out, his best performance of the year prior to Sunday was 9.7 Half-PPR points all the way back in Week 1. That changed this week, as he tied for the team lead with six targets (21-percent share), catching four for 59 yards and two touchdowns. 

McMillan’s peripheral stats were good, too. He trailed only Mike Evans with a decent 77-percent route participation rate (his second straight week at 77-percent), posted a 27-percent air yards share, and led the team with a 27-percent first-read target share. I’d recommend seeing him do it at least once more before putting McMillan straight into your lineup, but a rookie breaking out down the stretch is certainly not unprecedented. This Tampa Bay offense needs a second target behind Evans, and McMillan could be that guy — he’s a priority add on this week’s waiver wire if you need receiver help. 

10. The Steelers’ Passing Offense Without George Pickens

George Pickens missed this week with a hamstring strain. We’ve gotten conflicting messaging on the severity of his issue, ranging from reports that it is a Grade 2 strain to quotes indicating he was only held out due to an abundance of caution. Luckily, we don’t actually have to worry too much about how much time Pickens will miss (unless you roster him), as the Steelers’ receivers without him are absolutely useless.    

Pat Freiermuth led Pittsburgh in route participation rate on Sunday at just 62-percent. Calvin Austin was the highest among wide receivers all the way down at 52-percent. Mike Williams and Scott Miller tied for the team lead with four targets apiece. No player had more than 48 receiving yards (Freiermuth). If Pickens is out, I would avoid this entire receiving group, especially facing the Eagles’ red-hot defense in Week 15.  

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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.