Welcome to the final fantasy football usage recap of the season (probably)! At this point, there is no more long-term to consider. Week 17 is the fantasy football championship, so the only question left is who you will trust in your final lineup for all the marbles. Even waiver wire decisions are just disguised Start/Sit questions at this point — the only consideration when adding or dropping a player should be, “Will they make my lineup this week?” (unless you want to play defense against a weak spot in your opponent’s Week 17 lineup). With that in mind, this week’s takeaways will be different than usual, focusing exclusively on players on the borderline of startability. Let’s get started!
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Top 10 Fantasy Football Takeaways Week 16
1. The Dorian Thompson-Robinson Effect
One of the biggest questions coming into Week 16 was how switching from the Jameis Winston Experience (TM) to a young, low-ADOT, mobile quarterback in Dorian Thompson-Robinson would impact the Browns’ offense. On his very small sample so far this year, DTR’s stats had painted a picture of perhaps the worst quarterbacks we’ve seen in years … could he keep that up?
In his first start, DTR wasn’t quite as bad as the 34 passes he had thrown coming into this week. He nearly doubled his yards per attempt and cut his turnover-worthy-play rate in half … and still posted putrid numbers of 4.6 yards and 4.4-percent. Out of 30 quarterbacks with at least 10 pass attempts (pending MNF), he managed to post the fourth-lowest ADOT and the fourth-lowest catchable pass rate, an impressive combination of timidity and inaccuracy.
Having Thompson-Robinson under center essentially kills the fantasy value of all Browns pass-catchers. The only exception is David Njoku, who posted a 40-percent target per route run rate on Sunday and is now averaging an elite 11.0 targets per game with DTR under center. Despite playing well below his season average in terms of route participation, Njoku racked up 10 targets this week, although he did suffer a knee injury, so keep an eye on his status. Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore combined for eight targets and 67 air yards — Jeudy alone was seeing far better usage than that with Winston. Assuming DTR recovers from his calf injury to play in Week 17 against the Dolphins, Njoku is the only member of the Browns’ passing game we can consider playing.
Bonus Browns Note: Jerome Ford
Ford was a little lucky with how this game played out. On Cleveland’s very first drive, he saw just two carries before D’Onta Foreman came in for back-to-back carries at the goal line. But the veteran fumbled his second goal-line attempt and did not play another snap for the rest of the game. As a result, Ford finished with a 73-percent RB rush share, a 79-percent snap share and a 15-percent target share — that makes him solidly playable, although watch out for Foreman potentially returning from the dead to steal short-yardage touches.
2. The Michael Penix Effect
The eighth-overall pick made his NFL debut this week, as post-Achilles Kirk Cousins wore out his welcome in Atlanta. Thanks to his defense recording not one but two pick-sixes off Drew Lock, Penix didn’t have to do much, but what he did show was promising. He was PFF’s sixth-highest-graded QB for the week (pending MNF), posting a very solid 81-percent adjusted completion percentage, admittedly on a low ADOT.
Perhaps even more importantly, Penix brought the mobility that Cousins was so clearly lacking. He recorded two scramble attempts in this one; Kirk has just three for the entire season. The Falcons still leaned heavily on Bijan Robinson, posting a pass rate 6.1-percent below expected. But Penix is clearly an upgrade for this entire offense compared to how Cousins was playing over the last few weeks. Robinson, Drake London (health permitting), and Darnell Mooney can all be played in Week 17 against the Commanders … just don’t play Kyle Pitts.
3. The Anthony Richardson Effect
In a game where the Colts put up 38 points and won, Anthony Richardson completed just seven passes. Not eliminated from the playoffs yet, Indianapolis’ coaches are clearly leaning into what their young quarterback is good at: not passing. They posted a pass rate 26.8-percent below expected. Only one other team all season has come anywhere close to that mark: the Malik Willis-led Packers in Week 2.
It’s obviously a very bad sign for Richardson’s long-term outlook that his own coaches have decided the best way to use him is to treat him like Malik Willis … but we don’t care about that for now. Right now, this shift in philosophy is great news for Jonathan Taylor and okay for Richardson himself, but it is the final death blow to the fantasy prospects of the Colts’ pass-catchers. They are now playing with by far the league’s least accurate quarterback in by far its least pass-happy offense. Even in a good matchup with the Giants, Josh Downs, Michael Pittman, and Adonai Mitchell/Alec Pierce are all unstartable for Week 17.
4. Patrick Taylor Without Isaac Guerendo
As a firm believer in the idea that Kyle Shanahan can turn anyone into a fantasy RB2 (at least), Patrick Taylor‘s Week 16 performance was very disappointing. As the listless 49ers fell to 6-9, the former Packer finished with just 3.0 Half-PPR points.
On the bright side, Taylor’s usage really wasn’t that bad. With eight rushing attempts and five targets, he finished with a respectable 11.8 expected Half-PPR points per PFF’s model. He played 78-percent of the 49ers’ snaps and earned a 13-percent target share on a 46-percent route participation rate — that’s decent usage. He also saw an 89-percent RB rush share, although that number falls to 57-percent if we include Deebo Samuel‘s five carries. Ke’Shawn Vaughn saw zero offensive snaps, and Israel Abanikanda wasn’t even elevated from the practice squad (lol).
The question is whether Taylor’s lack of production on decent usage was just variance or whether he simply isn’t that good. Of those five targets, he dropped two and caught only one, and he managed just 3.0 yards per attempt on the ground. Putting it all together, I think Taylor is still technically startable if Guerendo misses Week 17. However, you would probably have to be desperate to make that call given his inefficiency and the bad matchup with the Lions.
5. Can You Trust Dalton Kincaid or Khalil Shakir?
The Bills have arguably the best offense and the best quarterback in the entire league, but they somehow have hardly any playable fantasy pass-catchers. If you’re still holding out hope for Amari Cooper (who posted a 47-percent route participation rate this week), now is the time to stop. Keon Coleman is trending in the right direction since his return from injury, but he was still at just a 62-percent participation rate this week and saw just two targets. I wouldn’t feel at all comfortable starting him, either.
The two players who deserve serious consideration are Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. Shakir actually posted his highest route participation rate of the season this week at 85-percent, although he caught just two of six targets for 22 yards. He is a deep-league flex option, but by no means a must-start. Kincaid, meanwhile, led the team with seven targets and four receptions … but finished with just 15 yards. He also posted just a 41-percent route participation rate, trending in the wrong direction from an already concerning 54-percent in his first week back from injury. Unless you’re truly desperate at TE, I wouldn’t play him in the fantasy football finals.
6. Marquise Brown is Back, but Xavier Worthy is the Chiefs’ WR1
The Bills’ competition for the AFC one-seed also has a shocking lack of viable fantasy receivers for a team that employs Patrick Mahomes. To be fair to the Chiefs, they came into this season with a much different plan for their WR spots than where they have ended up. We saw a glimpse of what could have been this week as Marquise Brown returned from IR and immediately racked up eight targets on just 15 routes. That level of target-earning (plus his big-play ability) does make Brown at least worth considering for Week 17. But he is clearly being eased back in with just a 33-percent route participation rate this week, so he is still a very risky option.
However, there finally is one Chiefs receiver we can confidently start, and his name is Xavier Worthy. Despite mixing in some of his trademark close calls, the rookie has averaged 13.6 Half-PPR points over the last three weeks on an 83-percent route participation rate and a 23-percent target share. He can absolutely be started for the Chiefs’ Christmas Day special against the Steelers.
7-10. Running Back Committee Update
We are essentially at the end of the NFL season, and it feels like half the league still has backfields in a state of flux. This means that plenty of fantasy managers are stuck starting committee backs, even heading into fantasy football championships. With that in mind, the final mega-blurb of this article will take a quick look at the most recent trends in committees across the league, including my takes on who can be started in Week 17.
Breece Hall vs. Braelon Allen vs. Isaiah Davis
In his second week back from injury, Breece was back to a clear workhorse role: 79-percent snap share, 74-percent RB rush share, and six targets on a 64-percent route participation rate. He is firmly back in the RB2 conversation (at least), while neither Allen nor Davis is playable.
Jaylen Warren vs. Najee Harris
It may have just been because of the bad matchup and trailing game script, but Warren looked like the clear lead back in Week 16, with 40 snaps to Harris’ 16, 12 carries to his nine, and five targets to his one on triple the routes. This wasn’t just a fluke, though, as Warren’s involvement has been growing consistently in recent weeks. Heading into another tough matchup with the Chiefs, I’d much rather start Warren than Harris … but ideally, you’d start neither.
Antonio Gibson vs. Rhamondre Stevenson
A week ago, this backfield wouldn’t even have deserved a mention here, as Rhamondre was the clear RB1. However, on Sunday, Gibson played more snaps (59-percent to 43-percent) and saw only two fewer carries (10 to 12). The former Commander also saw two targets to Stevenson’s one, as well as running five more routes. Stevenson also lost a fumble and let a backward pass from Drake Maye bounce off his chest, which was recovered by the Bills for a defensive touchdown. After the second instance, which occurred early in the fourth quarter, Stevenson did not record another touch. After the game, HC Jerod Mayo did not immediately shut down the idea of Gibson starting over Stevenson in Week 17. Heading into a matchup with a tough Chargers defense, I don’t think you want either of these guys in your lineup.
Tyjae Spears vs. Tony Pollard
Spears outsnapped Pollard for the second straight week, 34 to 23. He also saw more carries (10 to eight) and ran more routes (21 to 12), although they both saw four targets. It’s unclear whether this shift in usage is purely a coaching decision or due in part to the ankle injury that has caused Pollard to miss practice. What is clear is that this is no longer a one-man backfield. Both of these guys are risky flex plays … and even that is mostly thanks to a good matchup with the Jaguars.
Tank Bigsby vs. Travis Etienne
Speaking of the Jaguars, they appear to have settled into a classic two-back committee. Bigsby, the more explosive rusher, led in carries (12 to nine). But Etienne, who is clearly more trusted in the passing game, saw far more snaps, routes, and targets. This is roughly how things have looked for each of the last three weeks. Again, they are both risky flex plays for their matchup with the Titans — but if you have to pick, I’d start Bigsby.
Rachaad White vs. Bucky Irving
This situation is very similar to the one in Jacksonville, although not quite as even. Bucky is easily the better rusher, and he is seeing the lion’s share of carries (16 to three this week). But White still plays plenty of snaps and is more involved in the receiving game (eight targets this week). A matchup with the Panthers should make Irving an RB2, while White is a flex option (although there’s some risk he sees less use after his game-losing fumble on Sunday).
Tyrone Tracy vs. Devin Singletary
Tracy is the clear lead back in this offense, but Singletary is involved enough to be annoying. Tracy has seen a rush share of 64-percent or lower in three of the last four games, with Singletary consistently mixing in (including half of the carries inside both the 10-yard and five-yard lines). However, the rookie does see more usage in the receiving game, including catching all four of his targets for 43 yards and TD this week. Tracy is a risky flex against the Colts this week, while Singletary is not playable at all.
Kareem Hunt vs. Isiah Pacheco
Last week, managers were frustrated to see Hunt maintaining a very even 50-percent share of usage even as Pacheco returned to full health. This week, the veteran actually saw more usage than his younger teammate, leading by a small margin in each of snaps, carries, routes, and targets. Their final fantasy point totals (14.9 for Hunt and 3.0 for Pacheco) vastly overestimate how large the gap in usage was, but Hunt is undeniably the safer play at this point (although both are flex options).
D’Andre Swift vs. Roschon Johnson
Johnson was hardly involved in his first week back from the concussion protocol, with just one opportunity on a 27-percent snap share. I’m still slightly worried that Thomas Brown’s eventual plan is closer to a 50/50 split, but if we trust this week’s usage, Swift is playable for Week 17, while Johnson is not.
Alexander Mattison vs. Ameer Abdullah
These two backs combined for an absurd 13 targets (34-percent target share) on Sunday. With that many targets to go around, they could legitimately both be useable. However, the clear edge goes to Mattison, who led Abdullah in every important category. Especially in a winnable matchup with the Saints, Mattison is in play for Week 17, even if it probably won’t be pretty.
Kenneth Walker vs. Zach Charbonnet
Despite his excellent performances in Walker’s absence (and some Twitter hype about him being a captain for this game), Charbonnet finished Sunday with one carry and two targets. However, Charbonnet came into this game banged up and Walker exited early with an ankle injury. The most important determining factor in this backfield will almost certainly be health. If Walker is healthy, he’s the lead back, and I lean toward Charbonnet being unplayable. In scenarios where Walker is out and Charbonnet is in, he is a must-start. If they’re both out, Kenny McIntosh could be a season-saver.
Gus Edwards vs. Kimani Vidal (vs. J.K. Dobbins?)
Vidal had seemingly taken over this backfield over the last few weeks, but the Gus Bus returned with a vengeance on Thursday. Aside from scoring two touchdowns and breaking free for a long run, he also saw 14 carries to Vidal’s five, played more snaps, and even saw more targets (although the rookie ran slightly more routes). Complicating matters further, J.K. Dobbins has a chance to return in Week 17, in which case I wouldn’t play anyone from this backfield. But if Dobbins is unable to return this week, Edwards could have another solid day against the Patriots.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
